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💰 In this year's final Crowd Money issue, we look back at the world of prediction markets in 2021 and peer into the next.
crowdmoney.io/p/cm005-predic…
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"One of the most important societal benefits of prediction markets is that they can provide a check on all this punditry and the media’s tendency to sensationalize certain viewpoints." — @AndrewJEaddy via @desilvaphillips
💰 Crowd Money retweeted
If you're at #Consensus2022 anon come to the Big Ideas stage on the expo floor.
Starting in 15 mins we got @balajis talking about why "BTC > NYT," later @default_friend on pseudonymity, @thegoddisk on meme analysis & the @base_rate doods on prediction markets.
Gonna be epic.
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Forecasting is a critical skill for humans to navigate an uncertain world. Prediction markets can help us get better at it, argue @ClayGraubard and @andrew_eaddy, who will present on the Big Ideas stage at #Consensus2022.
trib.al/McMhYcM
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"Barring belief in preordination, we live in a probabilistic world. Forecasting is something we all do, whether or not we know it. It is a tool, it is a process, and critically, it is a skill to generate information."
coindesk.com/layer2/2022/06/…
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"Forecasting produces good information, forces accountability and rejects sophistry, sensationalism and biased thinking. It is a perfect check on traditional media outlets and a potential antidote to polarization."
coindesk.com/layer2/2022/06/…
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The research from @PTetlock, Barbara Mellers, and many others has "shown that if we quantify, record, update, score and practice, we can make accurate predictions on complex questions. We can see at least part way through the 'fog of war.'"
coindesk.com/layer2/2022/06/…
"Forecasting is also difficult, time consuming and underpaid. Adoption will require many approaches, and...prediction markets are one of the most hopeful by bringing…incentives and market efficiencies into the forecasting process.”
coindesk.com/layer2/2022/06/…
💰 Crowd Money retweeted
Great podcast about forecasting. @robertwiblin talks with two great forecasters (and my friends 🙂) @ClayGraubard @rdeneufville about (super)forecasting in general, forecasting related to the war in Ukraine. They also discuss their views about nuclear risks.
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🚨🆕 We've created a page highlighting job opportunities in the @Effect_Altruism, #predictionmarket, and #forecasting spaces!
Give it a look, and if you would like to have your job opening published here feel free to reach out!
globalguessing.com/job-board…
💰 Crowd Money retweeted
I wrote an article about #NFTs and their disruptive potential for the world of mergers and acquisitions. I shout out @vita_dao, @bitski, and other exciting projects innovating in #web3. And it's accessible (albeit slightly long), so if you're curious: ⤵
oaklins.com/news/en-US/21312…
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We’re looking forward to speaking at @CoinDesk’s @consensus2022, the crypto & blockchain event of the year.
The festival will showcase and celebrate all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web 3 and their wide-reaching effects.
Join us in Austin, June 9-12: bit.ly/3sZQ9xF
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This is long overdue. Here is a mea culpa on what went wrong with our "Will Russia Invade Ukraine?" market. In some respects, it was a huge success. But, our predictions were worse than about anywhere. Here are some thoughts on why we got it wrong. ourworldinprediction.net/pre…
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🆕 The Constraints on Peace in the Russo-Ukrainian War
📈 25% (+5): Peace deal before the fall of Kyiv
📈 7% (+1): Russian government collapses by then
Next issue: The risks from escalation
globalguessing.com/russia-uk…
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Introducing the @GlobalGuessing Russia-Ukraine Commodities Monitor (RUCM): Forecasts on Russia-Ukraine and their impacts on commodities.
Volume 1: Wheat and Aluminum
globalguessing.com/rucm-001/
Former contributor and cybersecurity expert @Mary_K_Brooks launched a cybersecurity #forecasting tournament on @metaculus last week alongside @RSI and Red Branch Consulting! Check it out below:
metaculus.com/tournament/whi…
And read her views on #prediction #markets and #policy which she shared with us at Crowd Money here:
crowdmoney.io/p/cm002-manipu…
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We've updated our #forecasting resources page for #RussiaUkraine, including:
—Relevant predictions from @superforecaster
—Forecasts on 🇲🇩 #Transnistria
—Markets on US and global inflation
—More commodities questions
—New charts for aggregated predictions
globalguessing.com/russia-uk…