A normie tackling macro economics, technical analysis and geopolitics. Follow me on Substack
Joined December 2017
- Tweets3.7K
- Following786
- Followers1.1K
- Likes17.7K
I've been spot on with every plot of the SPY chart since early may. But now the RSI is flat. I need momentum to plot. First target was the red zone, then plotted the blue zone and it's held as resistance since early August. It makes sense that we are stuck at resistance right before midterms I guess. Charts are in order from May through today.
I've been spot on with every plot of the SPY chart since early may. But now the RSI is flat. I need momentum to plot. First target was the red zone, then plotted the blue zone and it's held as resistance since early August. It makes sense that we are stuck at resistance right before midterms I guess. Charts are in order from May through today.
Kung Fu retweeted
First-order thinkers counting widgets or aircraft carriers don’t see that barring a quick one-and-done war, which isn’t how things work out as we now see, it’s all going to be about sustained production and supply-chain replacement power.
That’s also why when you build a global “rules-based order” based on post-WW2 U.S. military power and the U.S. dollar, and the latter means ever-less U.S. industry, which then means a less powerful U.S. military production system,… the “order” destroys itself and we get disorder.
So, the U.S. is going back to an economic statecraft playbook it used before to develop that echoes parts of China’s current model.
Everyone else globally has to deal with that - but with China and America’s sheer scale, they’d better be a side, pick a side, or be picked and left on their backside.
The real threat to the United States in a looming war is not China’s ships or missiles. It is the fact that China can replace them faster than America can.
China already produces ships, electronics, machinery, batteries, and components at a scale the U.S. cannot yet match. In a prolonged Indo-Pacific war, that industrial gap decides whether the U.S. can replace damaged equipment, replenish munitions, and repair ships or whether the fight ends when the first stocks run out.
Washington is trying to reverse decades of industrial contraction. One new facility for Virginia-class submarine components will not operate until 2030. China did not wait. It built the manufacturing base first.
A military that cannot sustain itself does not deter. In the Indo-Pacific, production capacity is the threat the United States has not yet closed.
A naked gold statue of the American president is on display in the European Parliament this week.
It's called "The Orange Plague": an 8.5-foot gold-leaf Trump sitting on the back of a frail man. The Parliament's administrators approved it, and the MEP who sponsored it says anyone who objects is "thin-skinned" and has "no place on the world stage."
The artist says it targets America's "assault on the rules-based order." Well, you're damn right we are attacking that order. Here is why.
SPEECH
The globalist order: Europe's Digital Services Act and national laws police what you can say online. A German journalist got a seven-month suspended sentence for a meme of the interior minister. UK police make roughly 12,000 arrests a year over online posts.
The sovereign model: an executive order barring the federal government from censoring Americans' speech or spending taxpayer money to do it.
MONEY
The globalist order: trillions of dollars created offshore, through London, where the Federal Reserve can't see or control them.
The sovereign model: stablecoins backed one-for-one by Treasury bills, on rails American regulators can audit (the GENIUS Act).
ENERGY
The globalist order: Germany shut down its nuclear plants, bet its factories on Russian gas, then lost the gas. Its power now costs far more than ours.
The sovereign model: federal loans and Defense Production Act determinations to build out grid, gas and petroleum capacity at home.
SUPPLY CHAINS
The globalist order: "cheapest producer wins" gave us no new refinery in fifty years and left China with roughly 85-90% of rare-earth processing.
The sovereign model: tariffs paired with federal loans, like the $725 million rare-earth loan through the Department of War, and a Pentagon plan to be "mined in America, refined in America, built in America."
TRADE
The globalist order: decades of trade deficits while our factories moved overseas.
The sovereign model: tariffs and bilateral deals, and by one industry count about $1.6 trillion committed to new American factory construction.
And the people defending that order can't keep it running. France's borrowing costs just hit the widest gap over Germany's since 2012. It's also more than two weeks into riots that began as school protests, with roughly 6,000 arrests and hundreds of high schools shut, centered on suburbs where about two-thirds of residents are immigrants or their French-born children.
Mock the president if you want. Satire is fair game. But a continent that can't power itself, can't fund itself, and can't follow its own fiscal rules should check the mirror before unveiling another naked emperor.
cnn.com/2026/10/07/style/gol…
I covered some of this here as well. xitter.cf/Chart_Fu/status/210065…
I loosely touched on that here.
xitter.cf/Chart_Fu/status/210065…