We are already seeing a reset in CRE, and that was before this latest spike in rates.

Warren Buffett’s warning about U.S. deficits raises a bigger question: Where do we see the consequences first? CRE? Housing? Consumer spending? And are we already beginning to see part of it in long-term interest rates? Persistent deficits mean more debt has to be financed. If that contributes to higher Treasury yields and borrowing costs, the effects can ripple through the entire economy. For CRE, this is especially important. Higher for longer financing costs mean tougher refinancing's, lower proceeds, more equity required and potentially more distressed assets. At some point, the cost of government borrowing doesn’t stay in Washington! It works its way into the cost of capital for everyone. What breaks first? #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #InterestRates #Economy #Debt

AI absolutely has the potential to be bigger than the Industrial Revolution. But understanding how we use it, and who benefits, is going to be key. If AI is primarily used to eliminate jobs and increase corporate profits, without creating new opportunities for displaced workers, what does that ultimately do to the economy? If fewer people have good-paying jobs, who buys the products and services these companies are producing? AI can create enormous economic value. The bigger question is whether we’re thinking seriously enough about how that value gets translated into broader economic growth.

BCB Bancorp’s $205M problem loan sale is one to watch. Roughly $181M of the portfolio is commercial and multifamily real estate loans. The bigger question: How many more banks will come to market with deals like this? Banks have spent years extending, modifying and working through troubled CRE loans. At some point, some will decide it's time to clean up the balance sheet and move on. If BCB is a sign of what's coming, we could see a meaningful increase in distressed CRE loan sales. The capital is there. The question is when more banks become sellers. #CRE #DistressedCRE #CommercialRealEstate #Banking #PrivateCredit

The 30Y Treasury pushing above 5.6% raises a bigger question for CRE: What happens to cap rates from here? If long-term rates stay at these levels, it’s hard to see how CRE cap rates don’t face upward pressure, especially as more properties need to refinance. Is this a short term spike in yields, or are we entering another period of higher for longer rates? If it’s the latter, the next price reset in CRE may not be over yet. #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #InterestRates #DistressedCRE

This is a great example of why saying “multifamily is down X%” doesn’t tell you much. $30K, $84K and $160K per door in the same broader market means that location, vintage, debt and the business plan matter. The sub 5% cap on #3 is especially interesting. Capital is clearly still willing to pay up for the right asset.

Rates at these levels or higher will break something and create opportunities! These yields are providing opportunities to sit in treasuries and earn some decent returns!

A 7% cap rate can look great until the property taxes reset. An extra $100K in annual taxes cuts NOI by $100K. At a 7% cap, that’s roughly $1.4M in value. Before bidding, check when reassessment happens and underwrite your tax bill, not the seller’s. #CRE

Sorry to hear that but keep moving forward!

Private credit defaults are rising, and CRE debt stress is real. But “highest since 2008” needs context: Fitch’s widely cited private credit index only began in 2024. I also haven’t seen a source showing that real estate accounts for 40–50% of those defaults. Do you have the dataset behind that figure?

That’s a fair argument. Borrowing against appreciated stock can turn paper wealth into spendable cash without selling the shares. I’d want the rule tied to the amount borrowed, though. Treating all pledged stock as sold could trigger tax on far more than the cash received.

Networking on X is valuable. Let’s take it a step further: have one phone conversation a day with someone new, and make more time to meet in person. The best deals start with relationships, and nothing replaces human connection. #CRE #DealMaking

I like your take on this! I believe AI will bring back the human connection and make in-person meeting that more important.

Interesting idea, but I’d check the laws in the state where the property is located before trying it. A nonrefundable move in fee could raise legal issues, especially if it’s treated as a security deposit under state law.

But illiquid doesn’t mean inaccessible. Billionaires can often pledge shares, real estate, or other assets as collateral and borrow against them without selling. That’s a big difference between wealth and cash.

A 20–40% drop in value doesn’t make every multifamily deal a bargain. Opportunities will present themselves, but only if your analysis is right. You need to understand the region you’re buying in; its rents, supply, expenses.

Random dog. lol

Yes funny and scary at the same time.

I can’t remember the last time Drake Maye and the Patriots looked this bad. Turnovers, no rhythm, and Jacksonville is running away with it! #NEPats