I’ve been digging into my Presidents Cup numbers and I keep coming back to one side.
They’ve got the best golfer on the planet. Clearly. When you start going through the potential pairings, it becomes pretty clear he’s going to play all 5 sessions.
Once you account for that, you’re basically starting your handicap with 5 points already on the board. There are only 30 points available all week. Starting with 5 essentially secured completely changes the math. At that point, the current price just doesn’t make much sense to me.
And then I found the stat that really sealed it.
He’s never lost to Scottie Scheffler in the Presidents Cup.
Not once.
International Team. +550 or better. They got SI WOO HIM.
Yurav Premlall winning by 14 strokes today in his first-ever DP World Tour victory is almost impossible to comprehend. He entered the week around 1000-1 to win, and the largest margin of victory in PGA/DP-level golf history is still Tiger Woods winning the 2000 U.S. Open by 15.
For a player with those odds to not only win, but completely separate from the field by 14 shots, feels like the kind of outcome that could legitimately be in the tens or even hundreds of millions-to-one range. Absolutely bonkers.
6 golfers that I’m underweight on this week that could torch my pockets
Bryson -1204
Ludvig -1619
Rose -3291
Morikawa -4593
Koepka -5042
Bhatia -6715
And 6 golfers that could absolutely make my pockets dance
Hideki +4255
Min Woo +6591
Fitzy +6766
Henley +7838
Cantlay +8863
Si Woo +9430
Avg prices on all. Let’s have a week!
Whoever was market making golf at @sporttrade_app last year please come back 🥺 thanks! 🥹
NFL & CFB complete. @JackMiller02 & @talkingtour battling up top.
From the edge he glided, sharp and clean,
Eleven made space where none was seen.
Blue-green lights, the chains kept runnin’,
By night’s end, one name rose above ’em.
+500 or better. Book it. 🏆
As a golf fan I’ve really enjoyed the addition of LIV. I know we likely have a few years left but I’m going to miss it when it’s gone. Sure stronger PGA fields will be fun but I have enjoyed more golf, global courses, different start times, etc. I also think their broadcasts are a fun change of pace.
Last but definitely not least I still miss when nearly all the books were pricing LIV as 4 day events after round 1. The roughly full season of that was amazing.
I’ll counter w/ 10 vibes based takes
1. Brooks ends the year under a +0.75 weighted sg.
2. Cantlay returns to the winners circle, twice.
3. Morikawa continues to struggle, goes winless.
4. Rico Hoey has a 2023 poor (maybe very poor) man’s scottie season.
5. Tommy mentally is free, wins multiple legit events.
6. Cam Young does his best 2024 Xander impression.
7. Griffin, Fitz, Vik and Ludvig all have better seasons than JT.
8. By season end Gotterup is considered a top 25 guy.
9. Jayden Schaper needs to be taken very seriously.
10. Benny the goat An gets 1 maybe 2 dare i say 3 LIV wins 🌶️
Very excited for the PGA Tour Season to kick off today. Some vibes based predictions:
1. Brooks ends the year over a +1.25 Weighted SG
2. Scottie ends the year w/ top 3 all time realistic
3. Homa & Rickie show some life - not sold on Spieth
4. Morikawa back to top 3 guy on short courses
5. Want to see something from Aberg and Hovland this year but not sure I am feeling it
6. Tommy has a legit chance to hop Rory and Rahm and become #2 (lack of length is an issue)
7. Rico Hoey is a better putter and jumps into the top 20
8. Penge not best rookie - probably Keefer if I had to guess
9. Trend of Ams contending continues - Koivun the obvious driver
10. Spaun and Bobby Mac keep it going - no letdown
11. Cam Young ends year in top 5 DG rankings
12. Xander doesn't crack back into top 5 player
13. Bryson LIV situation boils over in the next few days lol (not sure where he goes though)
14. Tour enterprise value pops this year - very bullish on Rolapp and think Monahan is unfit to run a Dairy Queen
15. We see some changes to signature events announced at the end of the season geared towards making them more exciting instead of just big cash dumps
