Eli Raridon rested with the starters in preseason. Scored a TD in Week 1, then ran 5 routes on 6 Patriots dropbacks (1-30 on 1 target) in Week 2 before getting hurt.
Returned in Week 4 and has been >40% route participation in each of the past two games. 42.1% route participation in Week 5 for Raridon vs. 52.6% for Hunter Henry. Currently sitting at 0.2 TPRR, 2.24 YPRR (via SIS). Really encouraging start.
ARI % of plays with 2+ TEs on the field by week:
Week 1: 25%
Week 2: 32%
Week 3: 41%
Week 4: 37%
Week 5: 49%
13 personnel rate:
W1: 16%
W2: 15%
W3: 21%
W4: 27%
W5: 36%
Packers TE2 Jonnu Smith snap rate vs. Minnesota: 47.1%*
Other two games: 22%, 33%
Bears TE2 Cole Kmet snap rate vs. Minnesota: 68.9%
Other two games: 57%, 60%
Bucs TE2 Payne Durham snap rate vs. Minnesota: 55.1%
Other two games: 12%, 6%
* Two other factors at play here: Kraft was limited coming off torn ACL, but was also Jonnu's first game shortly after signing.
Josh Allen has six rushing TDs this year. James Cook has two.
Four of those Josh TDs came from the 1-yard line. The Bills have had seven plays from the 1 already. They had 14 such plays all last season.
They've also had fewer carries from the 3-5 this year (0.67 per game so far, 1.71 last year). Those carries are more likely to go to Cook. Allen out-carried Cook 7-3 from the 1 last year. Cook out-carried Allen 7-6 from the 3-5.
Also, Cook's big rush TD numbers in 2024-25 were reliant on long TDs, which haven't come yet. Five TDs of 20+ yards last season, tied for third-most over the previous five seasons. 1.62% of Cook's carries last year was a 20+ yard TD, 13th among 255 player seasons in 2021-25 with min. 100 carries. His 1.93% rate in 2024 ranked eighth.
In short: Bills have had a lot of plays from the 1 this year, so lots of Josh TDs. Less plays from the 3-5 so far, and Cook hasn't busted a big TD yet.
Roman Wilson before his drop turned into an interception: 20 snaps
Germie Bernard: 2 snaps
Wilson after: 5 snaps
Bernard: 15 snaps
The Raiders have made their intentions clear. On one preseason drive with Bowers, both Bowers and Michael Mayer out-snapped all Raiders WRs. Then they paid Mayer 45 million dollars. Klint Kubiak has previously described Bowers as a "football robot from heaven." They are going to blow the rest of the league out in multi-TE usage, though Bowers only lined up in-line on 9-of-55 snaps in Week 3 (PFF). They view Bowers and Mayer as two of their best skill players and want to get both on the field as much as possible.
Jack Miller retweeted
Week 2 was a bloodbath with massive impacts across our ROS Top 150 Rankings.
Talked through the biggest movers and injury fallout with @JackMiller02, @notJDaigle & @adamlevitan
- Dart, Jameis, & Giants outlook
- Commanders sans Jayden
- Falcons with Penix back
- Packers pass catchers w/o Jayden Reed
- Bryce Young breakout szn?
- Colts w/o Alec Pierce
youtube.com/watch?v=p4y_K7Fi…
Makai Lemon out-routed Dontayvion Wicks 34-28 yesterday. Think Lemon playing time has been incredibly encouraging (82% routes Week 1, 81% yesterday) after missing so much of the offseason. Would consider him a buy either way, especially if Dallas Goedert (knee) misses time, which would funnel more targets to WR.
But I honestly think I'd be more excited if Darius Cooper didn't also out-snap Wicks 11-10 in the fourth quarter yesterday. The turf temperature reached 157 degrees in Nashville yesterday, and Wicks has 7-147-1 on 10 targets (0.17 TPRR) so far this year. He's been good. Wondering if heat could've been a factor there. Will be watching PHI WR routes closely next week.
Wicks also landed awkwardly on his leg at some point during the game. The Cooper rotation started pretty early in the game, and Wicks was back for the next snap after the 3rd & 8 mentioned here (h/t @JoshuaBurke21 for the note on the leg).
xitter.cf/BKubena/status/2101842…
TBD on Alec Pierce's heel injury. But Keenan Allen (0.23 TPRR this year, 0.27 last year) ran just 21 routes on 35 Daniel Jones dropbacks last night despite Pierce leaving early. The Colts used Laquon Treadwell as the Pierce replacement.
Would consider Josh Downs a big winner of Week 2:
* Remained in a full-time role (88.9% route participation) and earned targets (29.0% share)
* Target vulture Keenan Allen remained in part-time role despite Pierce injury, replaced by Treadwell (0.11 TPRR in Week 2, 0 targets on 22 routes in 2024-25 combined)
* Treadwell likely able to space the field better than Allen (see long OT reception)
Emanuel Wilson has four carries this season on 3rd/4th down with 1-2 yards to go. He's converted zero of them.
Four carries inside the Cardinals' 5-yard line yesterday (two of them from the 1). The result: three yards, zero touchdowns.
Jameson Williams has run 83 routes on 87 Jared Goff dropbacks this season. His target share (16.9%) is higher than it was in games where Amon-Ra and LaPorta played >50% snaps last year (15.6%).
This is merely the Jamo experience. Actually, it could be worse. Last year, he was the first WR since 2022 to finish as a top-24 WR (he was WR10) and have three games with <10 receiving yards. He will be fine.
We're also two plays away from there not being a conversation at all. Second play was clearly his fault, but it's not like they're going to dial back his role (Dan Campbell spoke positively about his response to the drop, and, more importantly, their WR3 is Isaac TeSlaa).
Jack Miller retweeted
First Rest Of Season Rankings show is live.
It was @adamlevitan, @notJDaigle, @MarkDank, @JackMiller02 discussing where to rank guys if the season started today:
* CMC
* Travis Etienne
* Rashee Rice
* Ashton Jeanty
* Jalen Coker
* Tons more
Free here or on pod feeds: youtu.be/RrrSHJ_s1lc?si=G2Qf…
Strength in Numbers is live on @EstablishTheRun. A bunch of player usage notes I thought were interesting. The Week 1 version is always the longest (this time, ~7,300 words and 75 usage notes), will be shorter in future weeks. Link:
establishtherun.com/strength…
Alec Pierce TPRR evolution from 2023-25:
0.12 -> 0.17 -> 0.19 (0.20 with Daniel Jones)
Six targets on 23 routes (0.26) in Week 1. Played limited snaps after missing the entire offseason due to ankle surgery. The target-earning has gotten a lot better over the years, and the targets are very valuable when they come 17+ yards (17.2 aDOT on Sunday, 19.3 last year) downfield.
And maybe the role evolves further throughout the season, as IND claimed it would after he signed a $114 million contract in March. Obviously didn't get the practice time to grow his role during the offseason.
The first play of Kenyon Sadiq's career was a TE screen. He later had a goal-line rushing touchdown. Just 3 catches for 21 yards, but I honestly don't think the usage could have been much more bullish after missing basically the entire offseason. They really want to get him the ball.
Loveland wasn't open all that much throughout the game. Bears did try to get him going in the red zone though. His 0.33 TPRR (min. 20 RZ routes) in the red zone ranked 13th last season. Also had an end zone target (and Caleb interception) negated by penalty later.
The Vikings (apparently) blitzed nearly 80% of the time on early downs in Week 1. Explains why Chris Brooks, elite pass pro back, out-snapped MarShawn Lloyd despite Lloyd running clearly ahead in the preseason. Lloyd out-carried Brooks 13-7. Still reasons for concern on Lloyd:
* 2.8 yards per carry
* 1 missed tackle forced on 13 carries (via PFF)
* -11 Rush Yards Over Expectation (via NGS)
Josh Jacobs back at some point. GB added Kaleb Johnson. Unclear what the workload ceiling is for Lloyd given injury history. Needs to be actually good to retain value.






