$ZEC is kind of in an interesting area. Some quick thoughts, bits and bobs on Zcash and $CYPH: There’s some profit-takers noting the double top near mid ~$700s, yet we can’t deny the pent-up demand and the cypherpunk narrative that’s gaining real traction today. People are genuinely asking if “this time is different?” By now it’s clear though there’s not just relative strength, but Zcash is the one-man wrecking ball of this alt season, standing alone. OI is back to ~1.11B (down 15% from peak) and funding sits neutral to slightly positive, dropping dramatically from the spike we saw during last week’s dump with leverage unwound. Anything can change, of course, but this is setting up for a shallower dip this time than people expect. If you sold the top at $700+ that's great. I'm viewing the downside risk around $580 and 500. At $580, that's roughly 1:1 R/R to the local highs, with a lower probability of hitting $500 again. LTFs currently exhibiting indecision and extended wicks, tight ranges with traders seeing if this zone around $650-675 is fair value. If we do see < $600, the hope is we'll produce our higher low and will be momentary. I'm also thinking about $CYPH... Is @cypherpunktech worth a bid? They TWAP’d 203,775 ZEC at $245 avg ( valued at ~$138M now) and aim for 5% of supply (roughly 1M ZEC). The DAT fatigue is real and everybody knows the playbook now, but there might be an opportunity here. Fresh narrative, no copycat DATs (yet), Winklevoss affiliation, and a coin that actually has momentum and enthusiastic buyers. $BMNR hit ~4x NAV premium at its peak. Given the fatigue with DATs, that might be ambitious but it doesn't mean we can't trade at a premium for an asset that has momentum. If you're in the camp that Zcash can hit several thousands this cycle, this is the amplified bet. You have people like Naval calling Zcash “Bitcoin’s insurance policy” and @CryptoHayes saying it might be the last 1,000x in crypto left. Some things to remember about CYPH: Shares will dilute via the $200M ATM. They have ~$68.6M cash post-raise (Oct $58.9M round led by Winklevoss Capital). With Zcash expanding fast, we'll see more issuance coming sooner than later to fund the next buys if history is any indication with BMNR, i.e., shares will dilute so timing this buy can be the tricky part, but CYPH needs to be part of the calculus now if we're thinking about Zcash.

$PUMP looks interesting to me. Hasn’t broken the downtrend but coiling a bit and at an inflection point to determine direction soon. This seems to be setting up for some intrigue as people make a scene out of the ~41M cliff unlock on the 14th, adding around 2.8% to supply. You can see the indecision on the chart right now but I have a feeling this is poised for a breakout. We haven’t seen “bullish unlocks” manifest in a long time, but we’ll know soon.

$STBL is starting to look interesting.. One of the big runners in September along with $ASTER, $AVNT and $XPL. Reclaim of the 4H 50EMA, has a little bit of work to do and flip the S/R, but keep your eyes peeled for strength. This one ran in sync with the aforementioned quite a bit two months ago, it might do it again. No strong opinion on the project itself, I'm indifferent to it, but it's low float, low MC and think it can re-rate and scam pump with the right conditions. Monitoring.

So why are fossil privacy coins pumping right now (outside of ZEC)? Some thoughts... Zero ETFs flows so unencumbered and not reliant on ETF / DATs that wouldn’t touch them with a ten foot pole. This means no flow but no redemptions. They're also not really listed on perps and if they are, relative to their peers with similar market cap, exhibit low open interest and perps volume dominance, making them purely narrative trades. They're too old for trench people to bother with and they're not even accessible to many of these people who trade purely on dexes. Most of these coins have mature supply schedules with disinflationary or minimally inflationary models. Nearly all supply in circulation, creating high float + relatively low FDV dynamics, opposite of modern VC tokens with tiny floats and modern tokenomics design. They're also older "fair launch" projects from the hey day and have little to no VC allocation, and ofc, in some respects the antithesis.