Chelsea. Celtics. Terps. stocks, macro, politics

Boston, MA
Joined March 2011
Fat Shot Drug retweeted
$CYTK Myqorzo revenues for 3Q26 VA consensus is $38.7M), around +1,140 3Q fulfilled Rx,
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
UBS:" $OCUL Differentiated Long-Acting Retina Therapy Approaching Market - Initiate at Buy..."
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
$OCUL BofA PT$27 do not see negative readthrough from the competitor results but think this data reinforces Axpaxli’s positioning given it is a more potent &selective TKI maintenance therapy which has demonstrated superiority against Eylea 2 mg in a pivotal study. Axpaxli has the clearest path to market given the recent positive pre-NDA meeting as well as the prior SOL-1 SPA and efficacy data showing maintenance of vision for 74% of patients through Week 36. currently model $1.5bn in nominal wet AMD sales
$OCUL Piper 2030 1.3 billion in revenue & rapidly profitable
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
$OCUL Cowen PT $20 Our retina KOLs remains excited for Axpaxli &believes 30-40% of wAMD patients would be candidates. If approved in 2027, expect specialists will adopt Axpaxli and continue to view TKI maintenance as a distinct opportunity for best-in-class durability vs. an anti-VEGF bolus.
$OCUL @charden Pravin body language when asked about EYPT on first question - weaker TKI & patient selection - PRAVIN & team Kaiser etc confident but also Competent & Proficient
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
$OCUL will file in a few weeks. Approval 2H -27. TKI-class is safe. Axpaxli BCVA curve doesn’t decay as $EYPT, but stabilises. SOL-R will hit NI vs 2mg. Will be marketed as maintenance, enormous market. Patients will start on eylea biosimilar, then be put on Axpaxli q6m/q9m+.
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
$OCUL latest slide (post-hoc) show that the ~30% that does not respond well to Ax or Eylea can be identified week 4-8. In Axpaxli group, the remainder, 70%, all get to 9 month.
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
$OCUL Piper 2030 1.3 billion in revenue & rapidly profitable
$OCUL RJ Best case scenario for $OCUL
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
$OCUL All Is Going to Plan Today's presentation simply affirmed that the Axpaxli submission is on track. Within a few weeks, we should get word of the FDA submission. A few weeks after that, the FDA will issue the PDUFA date. The FDA will indicate that they have accepted proceeding under the 505(b)(2) pathway. That and the SPA should speed up the review. But, the speed of FDA action is not highly predictable. The big task for the FDA is digging into the data to confirm the findings of $OCUL. There is a good quantity of data that needs a close look. But, the SPA agreement means the FDA starts with a preestablished plan to evaluate overall efficacy. Once the numbers are confirmed, I expect the approval process to go quickly. The next big task is labeling discussions. The key focus here is the durability label. The company is expecting a label that includes the phrase "6 months to 12 months." When the review starts, I do not expect any big news until there is an announcement about FDA approval. This team is not going to give us a play-by-play about their FDA interactions during the review. All we will get is a vague statement like, "We respond to their questions and continue to have a good working relationship." I know all of us will treat the release of the PDUFA date as big news. Yet, we also view the FDA accepting the application as a given. It just confirms what we expect. After that we have a bunch of waiting to do. They can talk more about their rollout plan, but mostly we wait for news of approval.
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You are not bullish enough!!!
ELON MUSK TARGETS 13 GW OF AI COMPUTE BY 2027, WITH 440,000 NVIDIA VERA RUBIN GPUS IN A SINGLE TRAINING CLUSTER Musk says SpaceX is on track to bring roughly 200,000 $NVDA GB300 GPUs online per month for the remainder of 2026, with deployments continuing at a similar pace next year, primarily using Vera Rubin. The company expects to have 2.5-3 GW of compute online by the end of 2026, with another 10 GW potentially coming online in 2027. Musk also plans to have a 440,000-GPU Vera Rubin training cluster operational by the end of Q2 2027. To support the expansion, SpaceX is targeting an additional 20 GW of power and cooling infrastructure next year. Musk said there is a “non-zero possibility” of exceeding 20 GW of operational AI compute in 2027, although he acknowledged the probability remains small.
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I will take the other side of this.
The Semianalysis anti-TSEM note is correct on Silith and STM, wrong on GloFo and UMC LiNbO3. 2 right + 2 wrong = neutral. Stop asking me about it. Particularly annoyed by GloFo material. They are fucking losers. STM is real problem, GloFo retarded and beyond redemption.
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
Takeaway from Goldman $CRWV TLDR What is Goldman’s main call? The market may be more worried about CoreWeave’s debt and financing costs than necessary. Old GPUs may be worth much more than investors think Goldman's base analysis assumes no GPU residual value after the five-year contract. Yet the report discusses older A100 and H100 capacity being renewed. If CoreWeave can keep renting GPUs after the original contract ends, those GPUs could become much more profitable. 1. Why is everyone worried about CoreWeave? Because building AI data centers is insanely expensive. 2. So is the debt a serious problem? It is definitely a risk, but Goldman thinks investors may be looking at the wrong number CoreWeave's unsecured bonds were trading at around 13.5% to 15% yields. But Goldman expects much of its expansion financing to come from asset-backed loans tied to customer contracts and GPU infrastructure, estimating roughly 7.5% to 10.5% financing costs 3. How does CoreWeave actually make the economics work? Think of it like this: Borrow money → build GPU infrastructure → rent the compute to customers → earn more from the infrastructure than it costs to finance it. 4. Why would old GPUs still make money? Some customers continue using older GPUs because moving workloads isn't necessarily worthwhile, especially when existing infrastructure already works for them CoreWeave's financing is generally designed to amortize alongside the original customer contract. So when the GPU gets renewed or rented again, much of the associated debt may already have been repaid.
CoreWeave has bought itself time The real debt wall doesn’t hit until 2030, when $11.1B comes due. That gives $CRWV several years to scale before the biggest bills arrive. But imagine, $40B debt + 8% effective rate = how much interest expense???
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Biotech is slightly green where the AI trade is acting like biotech about 2-3 weeks ago. Looks like max pain is nearly here!
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
CoreWeave cratered, retail backed up the truck: Record five day net purchases of the neocloud on Robinhood $CRWV
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
$CRDO JPM highlights that Nvidia qualification removes key barrier to ZF Optics adoption. This is consistent with what we heard at OFP
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
TL;DR: Keep engaging on X—the outside perspective is valuable despite the noise. Pharma executives’ career incentives can push them to overpay for “safe” assets, while small biotech investors may uncover overlooked opportunities using AI, novel data, and unique analyses. More dialogue could improve investment decisions: even one insightful question could save billions and help get treatments to patients more efficiently. @DaveARicks Some thoughts I wanted to pass along for you to consider, as I find your effort to engage directly with the community a big positive to us (even if you're still deciding on whether it is on your end): 1) Though it might be uncomfortable at times, I've personally found the net benefit of the discourse to outweigh the annoying downsides (also, the "mute" feature for less-than-value-add posters on X can be your friend if you haven't yet located it) 2) I hope you find it a useful way to communicate in a much more direct way with the world, and in this case, a subset of people who are passionate about investing. Your personal touch on your posts has been refreshing 3) I've had the opportunity to interact with senior pharma BD and R&D pharma executives (including a few who are my personal and professional friends) and personally know a good deal of biotech fund managers. My opinion is that there is an echo chamber that can exist within any organization or industry sub-group, primarily due to different incentive structures and personalities of those who gravitate to different types of careers. While I think you're right to point out there's a lot of self-interested individuals on X, the principal/agent problem exists at all levels. My feedback would be that, from an outside perspective, pharma business executives are always weighing their own personal advancement and job risk with what ultimately is the best decision for the company. That can sometimes lead them to be at odds with finding the best risk-adjusted opportunities that synergize well with existing and future company infrastructure and strategic objectives, and instead to favor assets that is the least likely to be a black mark on their career. That leads to, in my opinion, a lot of overpaying for "de-risked biology" and vulnerability for the product to achieve an attractive ROIC 4) As you know, the culture set within the institution, and the incentive structure, has a huge impact on how that manifests. Pharma has human and capital resources and data that we on the buyside dream we would have access to, and one day I hope perhaps we can collaborate better with pharma, at least at arms-length, in order to get drugs to market more efficiently. But small funds and some individuals have something else that I think is special: a drive to innovate the capital allocation and investment process in what has historically been a very inefficient capital allocation industry (LLY is more of the exception than the rule). We're working on a lot of really cool ways to integrate AI, statistics, alternative longitudinal patient data, and market data to find truly mispriced assets using a lot of novel approaches. We've been able to get conviction on programs that have worked (or haven't worked) through this innovation that, from my interactions with pharma, have not been fully explored on their end. If we can do it with a de minimus amount of resources compared to pharma, why not start a dialogue to see how we bridge that gap? We'll never understand your business to the extent you do, but I do think we can compare in certain areas as it relates to predicting probabilities of success, market opportunities, and assigning value to that under a variety of market regimes. Thought partnership sometimes requires grinding through a lot of bad fit ideas to find the one that changes the direction of a company or reinforces a strategic objective. 5) In my experience, a good thesis comes down to 2-3 key questions that need to be answered and a ton of boxes and ticking and tying that needs to be done. Sometimes it takes a unique perspective to consider how one can get an edge on those unique questions -- there's a lot of completely odd and self-serving takes on X, but it only takes one good question or one new risk pointed out that your team hasn't yet considered to save $1-$10bn+ in cash. Hopefully that's net helpful at the end of the day -- the patients really do matter and the world is dependent on us all to find ways to deliver therapies to them with increasing efficiency and reduced sunk costs.
One month (or so) on @X , a platform unlike any other. Energy, speed, smarts and stupidity. -The best thing in BioX - Rapid and divergent takes on new clinical data, on balance usually right..wisdom of crowds -The worst thing on BioX - Shameless replies and reposts pumping your own book, praying for M&A about your favorite name, plane stalking…do people actually think this is how a real drug company or serious investor makes decisions? Maybe it just makes you feel like you have some agency, then ok.
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
$CYTK BRiley Buy; $146.00 PT) 30% off 52-wk highs on nHCM safety scare the HFSA data just defused, i.e., events early, AF-driven, label-addressable. IQVIA sales doubled QoQ; Street at $38M looks stale. Only CMI with a positive nHCM Ph3; $EWTX is uncontrolled and years behind. Four catalysts in six weeks, i.e., 3Q print, MAPLE PDUFA 11/14, nHCM filing, AMBER-HFpEF.
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Spurs up 1 - nil on a brilliant goal by Maddison. That’s great to see for a player who has been decimated by injuries.
Coventry should be up 1 - nil. Wow Spurs are lucky twice
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Coventry should be up 1 - nil. Wow Spurs are lucky twice
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Fat Shot Drug retweeted
$OCUL said it before - say it again there is no read thru at all on $EYPT drug felling it was just weak drug Remember $OCUL Axpaxli offers increased potency vs. Duravyu (100x more potent for VEGFR2 - RETINAL Docs have been telling us that for sometime
$OCUL AXPAXLI 100x more potent then $EYPT - also no idea why any doctor would want to inject there patients eyes with 12 Guage needle that’s 2.76mm when AXPAXLI can be given with 25gauge paper thin .51mm
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$OCUL sells off on $KOD good news and $EYPT bad news. Double whammy
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