Earthling retweeted
This is for all the writers ( and want to be writers) in this beautiful community 💖✍🏼👩💻👨🏻💻📝. This gave me some serious guffaws and I hope it does for you as well 👍🏼💙. Happy writing ✍🏼🙏🏼. @LouDPhillips @DzintraSullivan @ChrisBohjalian @therealSIR3 @hwinkler4real @AuthorFleur @donnacox1021 @drdoomed01 @jameshealyjr
Earthling retweeted
Why are French university students lining up for lunch at 11am when the cafeteria opens at noon?
I took this picture on my way to work this morning because it is a good lesson in “shadow prices.”
In May, France extended €1 university meals to all students. Previously, those not eligible for assistance paid €3.30.
The result was not cheaper meals, but shortages.
Demand surged, and students now queue an hour or more in advance to secure their lunch. What they used to pay with money, they now pay with time.
And this is a lesson in shadow prices. It tells us that students are willing to sacrifice an additional hour to save €2.30, so they are implicitly valuing their time at €2.30 an hour or less.
That's awful. 11 am is one of the best times to study. You are alert, but not yet tired. Even if a fraction of them studied at this time, there could be more value than the one saved by the “cheaper” meal.
While the government did provide €50 million in additional funding for 2026, for a system serving more than 3 million higher-education students (about 8 cents per student per day), the problem illustrates something deeper about France.
Don't get me wrong. I love living here, and I work hard every day to contribute to this country. But too many French institutions operate as though people's time were free.
It is a system where enormous resources flow through the state, and simple transactions are replaced by forms, permissions, and waiting. People grow accustomed to this dependency, sometimes even demanding more of it.
The implicit message of the system is that your time is cheap, your initiative is unwelcome, and your ability to decide for yourself is something to be managed.
It is a sad situation because I genuinely believe France can be one of the best places in the world to live.
But people are tired. And I'm not talking about those who looted sporting goods stores and vandalized public buildings over the weekend. I'm talking about the butchers, bakers, and produce sellers I meet every week at the market. The small antique dealers who worry that a mob could destroy the little capital they have. I talked to many of them yesterday. They are scared and they know there is nothing for them to do other than hide.
A country that values its people should value their time.
Vive la France!
Earthling retweeted
🔴🇫🇷FLASH - Le Monde écrit dans son dernier éditorial : « Les défilés du samedi #17octobre ne doivent pas se résumer aux pillages et aux destructions. L’immense majorité des cortèges (800 000 personnes selon les organisateurs, 550 000 selon le ministère de l’intérieur) étaient pacifiques et portaient des revendications légitimes. Depuis 10 ans, Emmanuel #Macron a fait preuve d’une surdité continue vis-à-vis des mouvements sociaux qui ont scandé ses 2 quinquennats. Refusant tout compromis, les différents exécutifs macronistes ont systématiquement contourné les syndicats depuis 2017, contribuant à leur affaiblissement. En s’y prenant de cette manière, le pouvoir exécutif s’est privé des intermédiaires indispensables pour canaliser les #colères. Dans le même temps, le chef de l’Etat s’est coupé de la jeunesse, multipliant les réformes impopulaires dans cette partie de la population, sans écouter le mécontentement grandissant. Pour Emmanuel Macron, le constat d’échec est majeur. Le mouvement du 17 octobre évoque celui des « #Giletsjaunes », surgi en décembre 2018, déjà autour de la question du pouvoir d’achat et de la vie chère. Après le grand débat national, les 225 000 contributions citoyennes réunies dans les cahiers de doléances n’ont jamais trouvé de traduction politique. Quelques années plus tard, en 2023, les manifestations massives contre la réforme des #retraites n’ont pas, non plus, trouvé de réponse politique, le gouvernement Borne faisant adopter sa réforme sans vote du Parlement. Cette incapacité à prendre en considération les griefs des opposants a contribué à nourrir la défiance vis-à-vis du chef de l’Etat. L’exécutif ne peut plus se permettre d’émettre une nouvelle fin de non-recevoir. La paix sociale ne pourra se reconstituer qu’à cette condition ».
Earthling retweeted
I got scammed when using @bookingcom . I feel like an idiot for it, but I want to share this on social media in the hope that nobody else falls for something like I have. Also, @bookingcom 's customer service is absolutely appalling. A thread.
Earthling retweeted
Just in case anyone is wondering: I live in Paris; if I didn’t have X dot com I would have no idea there are riots in France.
Earthling retweeted
Un investigador de Anthropic acaba de decirle a una sala llena de doctorandos que su plan de carrera ya no existe.
La charla se titula "El fin del Antropoceno" y los datos son brutales:
→ El cómputo para entrenar modelos se multiplicó por 10 millones en la última década
→ La duración de las tareas que una IA completa sola se duplica cada pocos meses
→ Desde hace 7 meses los modelos resuelven problemas abiertos de Erdős que los matemáticos no habían logrado cerrar
→ En San Francisco, tener "timelines largos" significa pensar que la AGI llega en 10 años
Su proyección: el cómputo de 2030 será 10.000 veces mayor que el de 2025.
Todavía estamos al principio de la exponencial.
Sus 3 consejos para los estudiantes:
1. Usa la IA cada día. Si estás sobre la exponencial, nunca te quedas atrás de ella.
2. Elige proyectos que mejoren cuando el cómputo escala. El resto quedará resuelto antes de que los termines.
3. Deja de planificar tu carrera como si fuera estable. La opción segura ya no compra seguridad, ya no existe.
Y una frase que resume todo:
"Escribir es pensar. Si externalizas tu escritura, externalizas tu pensamiento."
La charla completa aquí ⬇️
Earthling retweeted
Bir fizikçi itirafı:Doktora tezimde 1 yılımı ve~500 sayfa elle yaptığım kuantum gravite hesabını Opus 5.5 makalesi ve GitHub reposu dahil 10 saatte yaptı.😱 Üstelik hataları da buldu.Neyse ki sonuç değişmedi. Akademide “emek” bundan sonra neyi ifade edecek?github.com/eokahya/claude-au…
Earthling retweeted
I built a personal tutor for my son with the data set yesterday.
Because everything is linked in a graph it’s able to “learn” very quickly based on his interactions where he is overall and adjust itself.
I hope someone can extend the work to later grade levels!
In July we open-sourced a dynamic graph of everything a child learns in primary school. 1,590 concepts, 3,221 dependencies.
Now we’re turning every concept into interactive experiments kids can play and learn from.
First one, age 7: heat and water.
Everything that used to be a boring textbook can now be an engaging experience, potentially tailored to every child.
Kids education just got a massive upgrade.
Earthling retweeted
Massive congrats to my friend @IsabellaMWeber for her excellent new book out in the UK this week. We need it today more than ever. As many of us have been arguing, a different economy is possible—-but it must be fought for. Also great review in the @guardian today: theguardian.com/business/202…
Earthling retweeted
If you teach Money in some course, and do not include this paper by @i_aldasoro in your syllabus, you're a bad teacher.
Formidable article, the clearest and among the best expositions on money and credit. Mandatory reading.
bis.org/publications/paper-1…
Earthling retweeted
In 1977, Jorge Luis Borges, one of the most influential 20th c. Spanish-language writers, told William F. Buckley (whose first language was Spanish) his reasons for feeling, age 78, that English was 'far finer' than his native tongue. Right or wrong, I love his savor for language
Earthling retweeted
Dear Mr. President,
I am writing from the tram. My shoes are wet again. This is not a metaphor. Oslo has decided it is October and therefore the rain is simply hanging in the air, judging everyone who walks under it, and I have once more failed the rain's inspection. There is a half-eaten kanelbull in my pocket that someone's wife sent to the meeting. It has put cinnamon sugar on my coat. I will not explain this further.
We met this morning. Five of us. Coffee. The portraits. Mandela looking as if he already knows how the day will go. The one we do not discuss still hanging there, 1973, bombs still falling, two predecessors having resigned, Tom Lehrer having declared political satire obsolete. We leave him up. Every family has the uncle who once did something, after which everyone simply agreed to keep passing the potatoes.
You will be pleased to hear that your name came up. Not because anyone nominated you in a way that counted, those had to be in by the 31st of January, which is to say before you had, by your own arithmetic, finished ending the wars, but because several people kept phoning and posting and then announcing that they had phoned and posted. Israel's prime minister put it on the internet. The leaders of Cambodia and Pakistan announced their nominations as though the announcing were part of the scoring.
Iran, as usual, was both on the list and not on the list, depending on which day the fish was measured. A man flew around the world collecting endorsements the way one collects signatures against a noisy dog. We watched. Norwegians are good at watching. We have long winters and very little else.
The number of wars, we noticed, kept increasing. Eight, then more. Like a fish. Every time someone said the number, the fish had grown an inch. Sometimes Iran was the extra one; sometimes it was already finished and also still ongoing. We did not weigh the fish. We do not grade homework. "He made peace" is not a sentence that ends in a medal, no matter how loudly it is said or how many heads of state are asked to say it into a phone. The will of a dead Swede who invented dynamite and spent his final years trying to launder the phrase "merchant of death" does not, it turns out, contain a clause about volume.
So we gave it to an eighty-five-year-old woman who was, at the hour we told the world, sitting in courtroom 600 in Nuremberg. The actual room. The one where the law once stared down the precise kind of man who believes wanting a thing loudly enough should make it his. She did not phone us. She did not post. No one flew anywhere on her behalf. She wanted the work and not the medal. The medal found her anyway. This is not a rule we wrote down. It is simply the only pattern that has survived a hundred years of our mistakes.
Which brings me to the purpose of this note.
Since the calendar already closed the window, and since the prize itself has a well-documented allergy to anyone who explains, in public, at length, why he deserves it, I have decided to send you the one form of recognition that can actually be purchased.
A $9 participation trophy.
Eight for the wars. Plus one for Iran, which refused to stay counted and therefore, we felt, deserved its own line.
Not a medal. Not a portrait on a wall. Not even a cinnamon bun. Just the ordinary, honest kind of prize, the kind that does not flee the moment you reach for it. I have marked the memo "Nobel condolences," which is the closest thing to the real article your campaign will accept by card.
Think of it as the uncle's contribution. Or the rain's. Or the fish's, including the Iranian one that would not hold still long enough to be weighed. We are only five damp people in a room with wet shoes and a long table and a plate of buns that is always, somehow, already empty. We have been wrong before. Kissinger is still on the wall. We may be wrong again; a future committee may one day hang a portrait of this very morning and decline, forever, to explain why.
But not this year. This year the old woman in Nuremberg got a phone call she did not ask for, and you get nine dollars and a note from a man whose shoes are wet.
Takk for the eight wars. And the extra dollar, for Iran.
The number is no longer our problem.
Kristin said "well" an hour ago. I have to change trams.
Earthling retweeted
• Master AI tools to boost your productivity before you get replaced
• Build a high-value digital skill: UI/UX, video editing, coding, or copywriting
• Start freelancing and launch side projects alongside your main goal
• Launch a simple online shop, even with just a single item
• Create short form videos to showcase your expertise and build an audience
• Sharpen your English communication it’s still the ultimate key to global opportunities
• Set aside a 6-month safety net for unexpected emergencies
• Focus on consistent monthly investments rather than quick riches
• Prioritize your physical and mental health: quality sleep, daily workout, and routine checks
• Network actively with industry peers; real opportunities come from trust, not algorithms
In 2032, you will either say "I'm glad I started" or "I wish I had." The choice is yours today.
Earthling retweeted
I am a member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
There are five of us. Five people, appointed by a parliament most of the planet could not find on a map, who decide, once a year, which human being the world has agreed to call good.
I know. I know. I think about it on the tram.
We meet in a building on Henrik Ibsens gate, a street named after a man who wrote almost exclusively about people discovering they are frauds, which nobody on the committee finds funny except me. There is a room with a long table and the portraits of the dead laureates looking down, Mandela, the Dalai Lama, a great many earnest men in spectacles, and one portrait we do not discuss, which is Kissinger, 1973, awarded while the bombs were still falling, after which two of our predecessors resigned and the satirist Tom Lehrer said political satire was now obsolete. We keep him on the wall. A reminder. Every family has the uncle.
It is October in Oslo, which means the sun gives up around four in the afternoon like a civil servant, and it rains the particular Norwegian rain that isn’t quite falling, just hanging there, judging you. I arrive with wet shoes. I always arrive with wet shoes. There is coffee, because this is Norway and there is always coffee, we drink more of it per person than almost anyone alive, and someone’s wife has sent kanelboller, the cinnamon buns, and we sit, five Norwegians, damp, caffeinated, sugared, and we decide the moral standing of the entire species.
Let me tell you how it actually works, because the world imagines a cathedral and it is, I promise you, a book club with a mandate.
287 nominations this year. 208 people, 79 organizations. Anyone can nominate, that’s the secret nobody understands: a professor, a parliamentarian, a former laureate, so the “nominee” list is meaningless, it’s a suggestion box, and every autumn some congressman nominates his own golden retriever and the press writes “SHORTLISTED.” Nobody is shortlisted. There is no short list the public ever sees. There is us, and the coffee, and the rain, and the portraits, and a Norwegian stubbornness that is older than the prize itself.
We read reports. The institute’s advisers write them, thick dull documents, and we argue. Our chairman told the BBC once that in the final meeting “there is a high temperature.” High temperature, for a Norwegian, means someone slightly raised an eyebrow and then apologized for it. We don’t do high temperature. We do a long silence, and then Kristin says “well,” and everyone knows exactly what “well” meant, and it’s settled. That’s our shouting. “Well.” You’d have to be raised here to hear the violence in it.
Now. This year. I will not say the name, because we never say the name, but you know the name.
A certain head of state wanted this prize the way a child wants a thing in a shop window, which is to say loudly, and in public, and with the full belief that wanting it was itself the argument. He said he deserved it. He said he’d ended eight wars, a number that grew most times he said it, like a fish. He had other heads of state phone us. Israel’s prime minister posted it on the internet, “Give him the Nobel.” The leaders of Cambodia and Pakistan announced they’d nominated him, as though announcing it were part of it, as though we tally mentions. A man flew around the globe collecting endorsements for a Norwegian committee the way you’d collect signatures for a petition to the council about a noisy dog.
And here, uff da, is the detail I treasure, the one that makes me smile into my coffee. The nomination deadline is the 31st of January. He took office on the 20th. So for all the phone calls, all the posts, all the gilded lobbying, the only nominations that could possibly count for this year’s prize were filed in the first eleven days of his term, before he had, by his own arithmetic, ended a single one of the eight wars. He campaigned all year for a prize whose window had shut while he was still hanging up his coat. We didn’t have to reject him. The calendar did. We just watched. Norwegians are very good at watching. We have long winters.
People think we sit there weighing his deeds. We don’t. That’s the thing I can’t make the world understand. We’re not grading his homework. We don’t owe anyone the prize for a ceasefire, however real, however loud the announcement. “He made peace” is not a sentence that ends in a medal, the way he believes it does, the way he believes every good thing ends in his name on it. The will of a dead Swede says the prize goes to whoever did the most for fraternity between nations. A dead Swede, I should add, who made his entire fortune inventing dynamite and selling arms, and spent his last years horrified at his own obituary, which called him a merchant of death, and so bought his way to immortality as a man of peace. The whole prize is one guilty arms dealer’s attempt to launder his name. We are, all of us, administering a dead man’s public relations. I find this clarifying. It keeps me humble. It should keep everyone humble, and it keeps, by my count, no one humble at all.
So who did we give it to?
An eighty-five-year-old woman. A judge. Born in Durban, under apartheid, granddaughter of a Tamil man who came to South Africa as indentured labor, a bus driver’s daughter from the poor Indian quarter, who became the first non-white woman to run a law practice in her province, who defended Mandela’s people when defending them was dangerous, who sat on the Rwanda tribunal and the court at the Hague, and who, at eighty-five, is right now a judge weighing whether a genocide is a genocide. When we told the world, our chairman said the rule of law “underpins the system we have set up to ensure peace,” and that “peace requires justice.” She wasn’t even in Oslo. She was in Nuremberg. In courtroom 600. The actual room where they tried the Nazis. You cannot stage that. God staged that, and God, it turns out, is a better satirist than any of us.
She did not phone us. She did not post. No prime minister demanded it for her on the internet. She had, as far as our deliberations are concerned, the one qualification the loud man could never manufacture, which is that she wanted the work and not the medal. The medal finds those people. It flees the ones who chase it. This is not a rule we wrote. It’s just the only pattern the hundred-odd years of our mistakes has ever shown.
The reaction from across the ocean was immediate. His spokesman posted that we “place politics over peace.” Ja. Perhaps. We’re five damp pensioners in a rainy city; of course it’s political, it was always political, it was political when we gave it to a sitting American president nine months into his first term for the promise of things he had not yet done, and we have been quietly embarrassed about that one for fifteen years, so believe me, we had a particular reason this year to prefer a woman with fifty years of verdicts behind her over a man with eight wars in front of him and a deadline already behind him.
Here is what he will never understand, the thing I’d tell him on the tram if he ever took one. We are the one prize he cannot buy, cannot post his way to, cannot have a friendly dictator phone in for him. Not because we’re incorruptible, nei, we’re as vain and wrong and human as the portraits on our wall. But because the entire point of the thing, the only power a small cold country’s book club has ever held, is that it goes to the person not performing the wanting. The moment you demand it, you’ve proven you don’t understand what it’s for, and proving that is itself the disqualification. He ran the most expensive campaign in the history of the prize and the campaign was the reason. He was never losing to Navi Pillay. He was losing to the concept.
It’s dark now. Four o’clock dark. The buns are gone. Kristin said “well” an hour ago and we all went home. I’m on the tram with my wet shoes, and somewhere across the water a very powerful man is explaining to a camera that the prize is rigged, that we’re corrupt, that he’ll win it next year, and he genuinely might, we’re only five idiots and we’ve been wrong before, Kissinger is still on the wall.
But not this year. This year an old woman in Nuremberg, in the room where the law once stared down the exact kind of man who thinks wanting a thing loudly enough should make it his, got a phone call she didn’t ask for.
That’s the job. We don’t reward the man who ends the war and announces it.
We reward the woman who spent fifty years deciding what a war was.
He’ll never see the difference. That’s rather the whole point of him.
Takk for i dag. I have to change trams.
Earthling retweeted
Polite reminder. Trump & Brexit are not 2 different things. They are the same thing. Same companies. Same data. Same Facebook. Same Russians. Same Cambridge Analytica. Same Robert Mercer. Same Steve Bannon. Same Breitbart. Same Alexander Nix. Same Donald Trump. Same Nigel Farage.
Earthling retweeted
Airbnb is dead. Well it’s not dead but it’s going to be dying soon.
The Bear case for Airbnb.
I’ve been bullish on Airbnb as a company for many years. But my outlook on the business changed this week.
Let me tell you why.
In 2012 I purchased my first Airbnb property. Over the years that one property has turned into a portfolio of high-end Airbnb’s that generates almost $1M a month in rental income.
Using ai agents for the first time this week has completely changed my outlook on the company.
Airbnb is facing an existential threat that most of the market is completely missing.
With Airbnb pushing its mandatory host-side commission to 15.5%, the middleman tax has never been higher.
Enter AI agents. (Hark, Dot, Muse, Grok Bot, etc)
Right now, booking a vacation rental requires navigating a siloed app and paying heavy platform tolls.
But your AI agent won't care about Airbnb's brand wall. When you know the property you want to book and you ask it “what’s the cheapest way to book the property” it will query property management system APIs directly, find the exact same home, and execute a direct booking that saves everyone 15%.
Airbnb's entire model relies on holding supply captive behind a closed interface.
When AI agents can autonomously search, verify reviews, negotiate terms, and book direct with property operators, that walled garden turns into a leaking pipe.
The middleman tax's days are numbered.
I’m predicting that Airbnb’s growth rate will slow down significantly in the next 24 to 36 months. And within 5 years they will be seeing negative growth.
The same can be said for most other online marketplaces that don’t have unique inventory that can only be booked directly on their platform and nowhere else.
Earthling retweeted
How to Think About Macroeconomics:
1. Start with accounting identities and balance sheets, not theoretical assumptions.
2. View the economy as a system of interconnected sectors, not a collection of indicators.
3. Strictly distinguish between stocks and flows.
4. Explain economic phenomena through causal mechanisms, not mere correlations.
5. Distinguish between real resource constraints and nominal financial constraints.
6. Do not conflate accounting identities, theoretical hypotheses, and empirical regularities.
7. Analyze economic processes in historical time, accounting for fundamental uncertainty and path dependence.
Earthling retweeted
Big story: Andy Burnham confirms that Russia meddled in the 2016 Brexit referendum. A vindicating moment
Andy Burnham says UK authorities are “clear” there was Russian interference in the Brexit referendum as @CatNeilan reports in today’s @ObserverUK
observer.co.uk/news/national…
Earthling retweeted
Assorted things I've been mulling over regarding agents in the economy:
• Companies are in some sense the original superintelligence. It's often the case that they can use their amortized cognitive surplus to advance their interests against those of certain consumers: relative to the optimization capacity of companies, consumers can be inattentive, underinformed, irrational, etc. (Think, say, of some of the classic insurance upsells at the end of a booking process, which is typically priced substantially above what a regular policy would cost.) Herbert Simon introduced the idea of bounded rationality, and firms often end up benefiting from it. Thanks to personal agents, we will probably get somewhat more rational in how we engage with companies.
• How exactly will outcomes change? Well, certain kinds of price discrimination will work less well (how do coupons work if every agent hunts fastidiously for them?), and certain kinds of customer cross-subsidy will change (today, people who forget to cancel subscriptions subsidize those who don't). Taken across the economy as a whole, I'm not sure what the incidence of all of this will be.
• In corporate strategy, people have long debated the relative importance of distribution and product quality. Perhaps you've made something better, but does anyone know about it? Won't people just continue to buy the ACME Corp Mousetraps? Personal agents will, I think, act as a kind of structural subsidy for product quality. How would markets look different if individuals always spent at least 10 hours researching their purchases? On the margin, focusing on making a product better is, I think, going to become a more effective strategy for companies. This is good!
• It true, a corollary is that information about product quality will become more important and impactful. Today, most people have very limited ability to aggregate and integrate such data, but agents will have insatiable thirst for such signals. (It's often said that data is becoming more valuable because it helps in the training of models. That's obviously true, but I think there's a secondary way in which it's more valuable simply as a complement to cheaper intelligence.)
• A big question is whether agents will increase superstar effects (rational agents all settle on the same product) or increase dispersion (because everyone has slightly different tastes and preferences, which agents are good at eliciting, finally overcoming the artificial clustering we've been subjected to).
• Many internet companies have monetized demand routing, which is in turn often predicated on short attention spans. "I'll click on the first thing I see." This has led to some amount of inefficiency, as companies try to propitiate capricious ranking algorithms and incur various placement fees. It's not all deadweight loss (willingness to pay is itself a kind of signal, which is valuable to buyers), but it's not great. How will the nature and value of this routing change in a world of personal agents? I don't know the answer, but I think that the effects might be pretty big.
• Much of what I'm writing hinges on the assumption that personal agents will be on the consumer's side. I suspect that that will be the winning strategy, but whether it's true, and what it means to be true, involves a lot of other questions.
Taken as a whole, the market is a massively parallelized, decentralized, and highly imperfect value attribution machine, and, taking stock of all of the effects, it seems to me that the quality point may well be the biggest: that agents will change the nature of the backpropagation such that the rewards for better products increase. Maybe this is too optimistic, but I suspect (and hope) that companies that make things that they're proud of will feel that the universe is a little more partisan in their favor.

























