Software developer, flight tracking, ship tracking, geopolitics
Joined January 2026
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C-17 crew is up there citing #OSINT like the rest of us squinting at a sketchy tweet at 1 AM. @thebaldgeek
Something went terribly wrong with the STS transfer between the bulk carriers LUCIE B IMO: 9587166 and ANTONIE OLDENDORFF IMO: 9696917 in Sohar 8/9th. LUCIE B transited the 8th, shortly after she started a STS transfer. I wonder if LUCIE B was hit during her Hormuz transit and they tried to offload her but a fire got out of control ? Either way both ships were covered in fire suppressant and smoke rising from the ships on the 9th.
The red dotted line follows the typical route of VLCC traffic bound for Ras Tannura. However the 51 NM distance aligns better with the usual route of the Qatar–Kuwait LNG shuttle. My guess is that this was an LNG carrier, but cant be sure.
UKMTO WARNING 158-26
Click here to view the full product⤵️
ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/prod…
#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec
ALT UKMTO WARNING 158-26
AtlasObserver retweeted
IN FULL: US Bomber Force Withdrawal from RAF Fairford #IranWar
OK so now we know the full scale of this withdrawal, here's the details - 10 of the 12 B-1B "Lancer" bombers remaining at the base (including the aircraft that only arrived 6 days ago on a rotation) are heading back to the US right now (and the other 2 were meant to leave today too, and might still do so):
Cell 1:
B-1B "MAYAN11" 86-0140 #AE6C0B (DY 345BS) "Last Lancer"
B-1B "MAYAN12" 86-0107 #AE6BEF (WA 77WPS) "Dragon Slayer"
B-1B "MAYAN13" 86-0112 #AE6BF4 (DY) "The Black Widow"
Cell 2:
B-1B "MAYAN21" 86-0138 #AE6C09 (EL) "Seek and Destroy"
B-1B "MAYAN22" 86-0103 #AE6BEC (DY) "The Reluctant Dragon"
B-1B "MAYAN23" 86-0124 #AE6BFE (DY) "Oh! Hardluck II"
Cell 3:
B-1B "MAYAN31" 86-0120 #AE6BFA (EL) "Whiskey Pete"
B-1B "MAYAN32" 85-0069 #AE6BD0 (EL) "Avenger"
Cell 4A:
B-1B "MAYAN41" 86-0111 #AE6BF3 (EL) "Let's Roll"
B-1B "MAYAN42" 85-0060 #AE6BD1 (EL) "Doolittle Raiders"
Cell 4B (Possibly broken):
B-1B "MAYAN43" 86-0108 #AE6BF0 (EL) "Alien with an Attitude"
B-1B "MAYAN44" 86-0134 #AE6C05 (EL) "Thunderbird"
Supporting Tankers (Unclear if all have actually flown):
KC-135R "LAGER52" 61-0315 #AE0237 (EGUN)
KC-135T "LAGER53" 58-0095 #AE04FD (EGUN)
KC-135R "LAGER54" 63-8878 #AE05B1 (EGUN)
KC-135R "LAGER55" 60-0353 #AE062B (EGUN)
KC-46A "BLUE30" 11-46058 #AE5FA5 (LPLA)
KC-46A "BLUE31" 21-46094 #AE63CA (LPLA)
KC-46A "BLUE40" 19-46065 #AE5FAC (LPLA)
KC-46A "HIFI81" 17-46034 #AE5E0F (KPSM)
KC-46A "HIFI82" 18-46054 #AE5FA1 (KPSM)
And so that's it - the end of the Bomber Deployment to RAF Fairford! A total of 29 B-1B and B-52H airframes have been deployed since March 2026, with a total of 64 combat and over 190 training sorties tracked by the team @MATA_osint.
I'll publish more details on the overall bomber deployment in the coming days.
A huge thank you to all those who have supported the bomber tracking effort: @ArmchairAdml @AUX_OSINT @LatAmMilMVMTs @vcdgf555 @steffanwatkins @Andyyyyrrrr @Saint1Mil @jamjake01 @rocketron101 @LHA2709 @Azorean_Lion @TallGlenn85 @window_planes & @havoc_aviation for use of your photos!
cc: @UKDefJournal @TheAviationist @thewarzonewire @AFMonthly @ASForcesMag
xitter.cf/DefenceGeek/status/210…
UPDATE: Safe Travels "Lancers"! #IranWar
OK so this looks like a major draw-down! 6 B-1Bs have departed so far this morning, and 2-3 more are preparing to fly shortly!!
The fleet of bombers was at 12 aircraft last night, so this is a big deal!!
@MATA_osint
AtlasObserver retweeted
HORMUZ CRUDE OIL TRANSITS SUMMARY 26 Sep - 2 Oct | 7.8mbd 7d average, 64% of pre war level Hormuz-Yanbu-ADCOP CRUDE OIL flows, 5-6mbd deficit
KEY INSIGHTS:
▪️Saudi PG exodus cooled down, also visible in loadings which dropped from 6mbd last week to ~2.5mbd this week. It might be connected to the resumption of the Yanbu exports, so I would not drumbeat "the flows are down" yet: total Saudi exports were consistenly 6-7 mbd across PG+Yanbu since June, so I am very sceptical that combined they suddenly dropped to ~4 mbd.
▪️Additionally, there might be some timing smoothing as GoO crude only exits remain around ~10mbd as per @phileeppos - which is in line with my 14D avg.
▪️I generally think PG flows stabilized around ~9-10mbd, a number that is largely consistent between loadings and transits over 14D timeline and what I'd treat as more or less sustainable baseline. With functional Yanbu (lets say 3.5mbd) it implies that PG-Yanbu-Fujairah ecosystem can operate at ~85% of pre-war level sustainably (in spite of simmering pressures and tankers being hit regularly)
All details can be now found at pgcrudeflows.lvision.ae/
As usual: this is my take based on OSINT analytics. You don't have to like or agree with it. Everyone does their own homework.
AtlasObserver retweeted
This @NBCNews report has 8 US Marines injured on board a commercial ship that was attacked in the Strait.
Three years ago I posted this video about a Marine Corps operation that broke up a Marine Expeditionary Unit and placed components on board ships to provide defense against drones and small boats.
It appears that the @CENTCOM and @US5thFleet may have implemented this plan.
youtu.be/ixfmtP1xUuQ
Eight U.S. Marines were injured two weeks ago when an Iranian cruise missile attacked the ship they were operating on in the Strait of Hormuz, according to three U.S. officials. nbcnews.com/politics/nationa…
Over the past 72 hours, Saudi Arabia's east coast terminals have been loading large crude volumes, all with AIS switched off. Today I identified every one of the tankers.
I haven't posted much lately because I've been deep in building a tanker tracking app for dark vessels with @LVision_Trading . We've learned a ton along the way and can now confidently identify a good chunk of the dark tankers. We know the roles they play and where to expect them, often before they even show up.
It feels like a better approach to doing OSINT than posting the same Hormuz Sentinel images over and over without the story behind them. There's something funny about looking at a rusty deck in a blurry Sentinel shot and knowing which ship it is off the top of your head. Having a framework and app behind that takes it to the next level.
Yes, we've been staring at ships way too long.
We might share more detailed stuff down the line. For now @LVision_Trading is sharing the overall numbers and I am humbled by her capacity. Stick around and find out more.
AtlasObserver retweeted
Damage in one of Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 East-West pipeline pumping stations hit yesterday spotted TODAY 👇 at
23.9576, 40.0547
More images at article linked on RT.
Before, Sentinel 2 09/07 satellite image, link on 🧵
After, today´s CNN Planet satellite image.
A key oil pipeline system in Saudi Arabia was struck by projectiles on Thursday, per two US officials.
Early analysis found that pump stations, which are located next to the pipeline itself, were hit, 1 of the US officials said.
It is not immediately clear who is responsible or if sections of the pipeline itself were damaged but 1 of the officials said it was struck by drones originating from Iraq.
Story w/ @KatieBoLillis, @kylieatwood & @ThomasBordeaux7
cnn.com/2026/09/11/politics/…
AtlasObserver retweeted
CENTCOM forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers, Sept. 8, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days. The U.S. warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to patrol regional waters. No American personnel were harmed.
Full statement here: centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-REL…
Yesterday A C17 flight #AE117D 02-1111 RCH449 from Clark Air Base ,Philippines to Suratgarh Air Force Station, India had an engine problem and diverted to Diego Garcia. Flight was likely related to Yudh Abhyas 2026, possibly carrying HIMARS and AH‑64E Apaches.
ACARS messages from @thebaldgeek site.
This morning a NITC VLCC was struck near Kharg island. Rescue boats rushed to her and it seems like she has some scorch marks. From my old images it matches the sanctioned tanker DOWNY IMO: 9218480 or previously named DENA.
AtlasObserver retweeted
Location where IRGC was preparing rocket launchers to deploy sea mines in Strait of Hormuz, hit by US, spotted TODAY at
26.8435, 56.3674
Larak Island strikes were during late night hours of Sunday, August 30, 2026. 1st strike against Iran in over a month
AtlasObserver retweeted
UPDATE: Coronet East 110 Continues towards CENTCOM #IranWar
It appears the jets are on the move once again as 2 cells, with initial tanker support from Lajes:
Cell 1:
KC-46A "GOLD12" 22-46101 #AF4EE7
KC-46A "GOLD13" 21-46086 #AE63C2
F-16C "TABOR11" 88-0257 #AE0257
F-16C "TABOR12" 89-2051 #AE26FD
F-16C "TABOR13" 89-2082 #AE49F8
F-16C "TABOR14" 89-2109 #AE07D1
F-16C "TABOR15" 89-2114 ?
F-16C "TABOR16" 89-2128 #AE49FB
Cell 2:
KC-46A "GOLD25" 19-46109 #AF4F4D
KC-46A "GOLD26" 20-46077 #AE63B9
F-16C "TABOR21" 89-2151 #A7DEC2
F-16C "TABOR22" 90-0700 #AE01B1
F-16C "TABOR23" 90-0702 #AE49FA
F-16C "TABOR24" 90-0704 #AE49F6
F-16C "TABOR25" 89-2132 #AE019D
F-16C "TABOR26" 89-2112 ?
@MATA_osint @ArmchairAdml @AUX_OSINT @Azorean_Lion
UPDATE: Coronet East 110 Continues towards CENTCOM #IranWar
12x F-16C "Fighting Falcon" jets from 180th FW (OH) are departing Lajes Airport (LPLA) now heading onwards to CENTCOM, initially supported by at least 3 tankers from Lajes itself.
@MATA_osint
An update to the Saudi tankers situation:
All of the possible transitters changed name and flag from traditional Saudi names and flag to the theme of SHINE, Liberia. I dont know if this is prep for Hormuz transit.
AHAM IMO: 9378541 -> PLATINUM SHINE
JALADI IMO: 9384227 -> EMERALD SHINE
MANIFA IMO: 9384198 -> SAPHIRE SHINE
KARAN IMO: 9384239 -> DIAMOND SHINE
ARSAN IMO: 9421415 -> SILVER SHINE
AWTAD IMO: 9519717 -> GOLD SHINE
Possible transfers:
MAJRA IMO: 9830812 (2019) -> Gave up 20th and left Gulf of Oman, position unknown
AMJAD IMO: 9779800 (2017) -> Gave up and currently rounding the Cape
NAFEES IMO: 9830800 (2019) -> Gave up 20th and left Gulf of Oman, position unknown
ZAYNAH IMO: 9854703 (2019) -> Surprisingly seems to be inside the Persian Gulf, might be spoofing.
There are more Saudi tankers with interesting positions, I will have a different post for those.
It looks like every single one of the returning Saudi tankers are sailing towards the Gulf. Some of the older ships will probably attempt to transit the Strait of Hormuz through the southern route. Newer ships will have to depend on STS transfers. Some will be severely damaged by strikes, possibly beyond repair. This is the new normal.
Possible transiters:
JAHAM IMO: 9378541 (2008)
JALADI IMO: 9384227 (2008)
MANIFA IMO: 9384198 (2008)
KARAN IMO: 9384239 (2009)
ARSAN IMO: 9421415 (2010)
AWTAD IMO: 9519717 (2011)
Possible transfers:
MAJRA IMO: 9830812 (2019)
AMJAD IMO: 9779800 (2017)
NAFEES IMO: 9830800 (2019)
ZAYNAH IMO: 9854703 (2019)
Remember the cargo ship that ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz in March ? IRGC claimed it was a foreign ship but it turned out to be their own ARISTA IMO: 9348493. Yeah they finally got her unstuck yesterday. Seems like they want to keep the good news on the down-low though. She went dark. What can I say, its tradition.
