ShitCo connoisseur | focus on biotech | long form stuff might end up on the stack | Why so serious it´s only money | NFA
Joined February 2021
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AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
Part 2, It's not a secret MDT has tried to buy AVR, luckily management knows its true value and wants a MiRus like premium. MDT had to settle for buying only 16%. But this bought them a placeholder. At some point, likely near full enrollment, they will bid for AVR and if AVR is trading in the high teens they'll have a decent shot at buying them for a MiRus like premium ie $45/share.
Let's take a step back though and think about the market; we have $EW Sapien, $MDT Evolut, and MiRus SIEGEL (BSX). All but MDT has a balloon implantable feature, which is preferred, and at this point I wouldn't think about MDT as a competitor, as their longer term study blew up as mentioned in part 1. MiRus's supposed advantage is they are not using nickel as part of the structure and stronger alloys, they claim that 20% of the market has an allergy to nickel. My resources including interventional cardiologist, analysts, and private sources think the numbers are less than 5%, they also use a 3 piece sewn together valve like Evolut and Sapien. None of these valves resemble natural human biology as the Anteris DurAVR valves use a one piece bovine material (also balloon implantable). AVR has most if not all of the advantages of this group. MiRus slight advantage is in nickel sensitive patients (small mkt) and faces the 3 piece problem which shows up in hemodynamic performance. AVR has a biomimetic single piece valve, more structural integrity, more durable, is both physiologically and anatomically correct (for the first time) and achieves pre disease mean gradients , LV remodeling by 30% (linked to better mortality outcomes) and laminar flow that equates to a normal healthy valve because of the biomimetic design. In other words it's best of breed and MDT needs them.
Long $AVR
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
$ANAB I think is once again a very attractive name to sell puts on. The vol is super jacked because of the GSK<>ANAB lawsuit, but we already know that the optionality from that is purely upside for ANAB.
OTOH even if the lawsuit is a 0 for ANAB, stock will be fundamentally supported in 40s imo - possible to structure decent trades around that as of now
$ANAB some thoughts. The TRAX PIPE is nice to give us some area of demand, and I´d like to think that it happened at a discount to what most investors were comfortable with since Nodelman is a seller in it.
As to $ANAB I think the ~10mln / year are quite unnecessary, but I guess larger investors don´t want the stock to go OTC so they cannot go down to minimum expenses of probably closer to 2-5 mln/year.
Quicky valuation:
TRAX at PIPE is worth 13.81$ / share
Net cash in ANAB is 140 initially, let´s substract 10 for burn until Sagard is paid off -> 4.64$/share
Jemperli royalties slightly above consensus but still meaningfully below GSK guidance is ~37$ per share after taxes at ~10%IRR
-> 55.27$/share with some meaningful jemperli upside (including current litigation against GSK), but also from upcoming data and very likely label expansion which is probably only partially in consensus numbers.
Still like the shares in the mid-50s, but majority of my exposure is still in sold puts (all short-term) with strike 50, where I feel quite comfortable.
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
A midyear update on key #biotech indicators that have cycled from multidecade washout extremes a year & a qtr ago, to multiyear buy-in of a now recognized trend:
1 - Pct of Bios above their 50-dma is at 78%, up from 1% in April 2025 low.
2-Pct of Bios above their 200-dma is a more modest 67% up from 9% in April 2025. This usually hits 75%-80% near reversals.
3-Pct within 5% of 1-yr lows is 2%, down from a historic 61% in April 2025.
4-Pct of bios within 5% of a 1-yr high is 34%, a multiyear high reading, and very healthy bull market-like.
$XBI $IBB
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
Nice thread from @SPACMAN17 on $PCSC; it covers a fair amount of territory that I did not in my thread on the name from earlier today. Really interesting tech, if you dive in, you can see why Exact Sciences (now $ABT) and Roche are both heavily involved with Freenome
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
$RNA I admit I have a hard time valuing this thingy. Just to start off we still(!) have 3 scenarios:
1) 72$ + SpinCo with 270 cash + all assets
2) 72$ + whatever they receive for SpinCo WITHOUT the 270 cash
3) 72$ + SpinCo with 270 cash + some assets not sold + sale proceeds of assets sold
As long as 2) exists as a possibility, we could hear tomorrow they sold it all for 100 mln and get an extra 60 cents/share...
FWIW the majority of the value (ex cash) probably sits within the BMY collab for now. But them not exercising their ROFN (so far?) seems rather -ve?
But then again they might be a company within a registrational program in 2 years if ATR 1072 produces convincing results.
Other than that SpinCo will have 1.5-1.6$ in cash per RNA share (spin ratio will be 1:10). I think it is reasonable to expect them to burn ~30-40mln in R&D + SGA (easily 15-20 mln as a PubCo) in the short term which should ramp as clinical trials are expanded.
Historically that is actually a setup where you should not be shocked if it trades sub cash I think, especially with SpinCo-dynamics.
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
$XBI The state of biotech: When the CIO of a multi-B $ hedge fund (RTW) hosts a podcast / interview with a CEO of one of his largest positions $AKRO, the video gets not even 600 views in 1 month.
Cathie Wood´s pumpfest "Big Ideas 2025" has 250k 🤮
youtube.com/watch?v=wILfqGqA…
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
The year is 2031.
The market has been up for 690 days in a row.
No company has reported earnings in a year and a half.
Robinhood launches futures contracts on Kalshi's latest betting markets.
BLS has reported 2% inflation and 3.5% GDP growth for 25 quarters in a row.
Coinbase announces shitcoin leverage of up to 500X's.
Beyond Meat and Oatly have 're-ipo'd' and are up 6590%.
Michael Saylor is the SEC Commissioner.
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
Received a few inquiries from subscribers and followers on Twitter, so here’s why I’m not involved with $ANEB.
Any pushback is always welcome.
ANEB is pursuing a “going dark” transaction via a reverse stock split at a ratio between 1-for-2,500 and 1-for-7,500, with a fixed cash-out price of $3.50 per pre-split share. A 2,499-share position implies ~$1,100 upside at current prices.
Shareholder approval is almost certain. The main risk is cancellation, repricing, or a lower split ratio.
Since the announcement, significant arb activity has occurred. The anticipated cash-out cost is $1.8M, but with 20M shares traded on the day of the announcement, even a small fraction of traders taking odd-lot positions could dramatically increase the cost.
If just 500 shareholders participate at the lower ratio, the cost jumps to $4.4M. In reality, the number of participants could easily exceed 1,000, making the transaction financially unfeasible.
ANEB has $13M in cash and burns ~$2M per quarter, meaning it may less than ~$10M by the time of the vote. You do the math, this deal is unlikely to go through on current terms if retail participation scales up.
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
$PRTC looks like a ton is happening behind the scenes. BoD Chair and CEO have now been replaced. Both replacements are people with a very financy background, which increases my conviction that $PRTC is in some stage of winddown or at least very severe consolidation.
Have a lot of posts / threads all over the place, will gather them right here.
TLDR: Great r/r imo, lots of ways to win, lots of value, people are saying all the right things. Now they need to walk the walk. Read the whole thing though you lazy asses.
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
$IKNA holy shit that was a close voting for/against the merger.
You ever saw some deal voting that close?
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
iTeos Therapeutics $ITOS is today's massive net cash ($520m cash on $320m market cap), busted biotech, reviewing strategic alternatives.
This one could move rapidly given the company's self-awareness: 'given current market conditions and our appreciation of the responsibility to our valued shareholders, we believe the best path forward is to promptly evaluate a full range of strategic alternatives to unlock the value of our assets'. Let's see.
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
$RPTX After the biotech rally over the last days, I think this name now has one of the most compelling risk/rewards.
CEO thrown out, lots of costs are cut, probably around 1.80$ net cash per share as of Year-end and one phase-3-asset and several early-stage asset available for partnership.
More than +100% upside on liquidation like $THRD, without any sales or any partnership proceeds.
1) $RPTX (1.04$) 44 mln mc / 153 mln cash / already RIFed / CEO out / some assets for licensing or with readouts 2025. Will sell themselves / in part / look for reverse merger (RM).
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
With $XBI down -20% from Nov 11th high to yesterday's low, several indicators have cycled back to oversold:
1-The % of #biotech cos > 50-dma down to 22%. Only phases of declines > -30% see readings < 15%, such as Oct 2023 & June 2022.
2-The % of bios > 200-dma at 25% near buy. Only major bear market lows breach 10%.
3-The % of bios within 5% of 1-yr High clustering around 5%, down from 15% in Nov, & +20% a year ago.
4-The % of bios within 5% of 1-yr Low, surge to 33% from 5% in Nov.
5-The 5-D and 20-D $IBB Put/Call ratio went Supernova at 24:1 and 12:1 as bearish bets were placed.
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
I think gene Therapy sentiment is at all time lows and some of these names are worth a look. Specifically looking at some of the AAV based names. The CRISPR woes were recently covered at STAT
A few companies that look attractive imo: $RCKT, $LXEO $TSHA $RGNX. Could be others, just a few that pop into my head.
Before we look at those companies: What is the state of play?
Gene therapy Funding is at 10yr lows: xitter.cf/Prof_Oak_/status/18231…
Prices at all time lows with 6 month performance dizzyingly bad:
and people would rather put their money into some fake coin.
The recent Stat news piece discusses CRISPR companies but gene therapy doldrums are more than that. Maybe we don't see an RNAi like revival, but serious opportunity always arises from crisis.
Cell & Gene Therapy VC funding annualizing at ~$1B 2024 YTD, on pace for its worst year in a decade
Many FIH readouts for new modalities in '24-25 - ADAR Editing, Base/Prime Editing, novel AAV capsids, etc.
Translational success, paired with continued regulatory flexibility and reasonable metrics for high profile launches (e.g., CRSP, SRPT), could be the basis for renewed capital flows
ALT https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-024-02357-2/figures/5
AnotherBioInvestor retweeted
$TAK wants to start phase-3 of elritercept in anemia associated MDS in FY 2024 which ends end of March 2025.
Should already pay out a milestone to $KROS probably something between 10 - 50 mio. US$ in Q1 or Q2 2025.
I do not know if the market really take into account the value of the $TAK partnership for elritercept...
I made some calculation on $KROS and am fascinated how low the stock is valued. Even if I only assume their net cash end of march 2025 I would receive a net cash of roughly 18 US$ per share. With this calculation and some reduced burn due to the license deal with Takeda (elritercept was a big chunk of their R&D spent) and probably cibotercept study halt.
I made some assumptions for their ATM in Q4 as we only know how many shares they sold between 30th September and 31st October, but that were already roughly 70 mio. US$ so I assumed that they sold more shares until the cibotercept news mid of December.
If you assume some NPV values for elritercept (milestones + royalties) and KER-065, that stock is super cheap and they are real dealmaker. Management sold Acceleron before and the Takeda deal for elritercept is also a nice one.
I think the stock is massively undervalued here. I do not know why, but I am sure that this discount will narrow.
Disclaimer: I am long
