$SLN I think it´s actually a decent arb at 19.57$. Even added some and sold a couple of 20$ Calls for a probably 10-15% IRR (depending on closing timing, estimating end of January for now). Most biotech folks will just sell to buy other cheap stuff, but I´ll let this ride on margin.

$SLN whoop whoop 20$ takeout

Lots of stocks out there where recent positive events / date have been almost or fully priced out ($INSM guidance / $PCVX bull case date / $PHVS bull case data / $DFTX data / $KYTX data) But $CELC? Wow. Sat this one out through my general bearishness, bought back in now.

Becoming quite constructive by now on biotech (therapeutics - so more $BBC than $XBI where the "biotech AI" trade is more influential). It´s pretty weird and we might currently be in one of these windows, where the wind already turned around, but it is still masked by weird flows. 1) AI stocks are weak, freeing up speculative capital for biotech 2) $BBC dropped 28.55% in not even 2 months, going from +48% YTD to almost flat. 3) Rates have come off meaningfully (and I don´t think nobody really cares about 475 vs 525 anyway?) I don´t know what´ll turn it around, but I usually don´t focus on that. We rallied hard in 2025 even with VP at the helm at the end. I won´t get hung up on oil prices here, M&A, rates... It´s all a fugazzi. Buy cheap and you will make money. Maybe will do a larger ticker thread today or monday depending on time available

Always sad to see BioX contributors hurt, but there is a reason most professionals limit their shorts to maybe 200-300 bps (and most a lot smaller towards 30-50). Time to finish the job, short $MRNA now 231ish for about 30% of target size. Waiting for potential data craziness and high 200s for remaining size. Probably not the best entry, but these shorts are hard to play, they can top in 2 hours and be down 20%, so have to get in on the way up partially. I usually like to look for a blow off top in these and we might get that with complete data set or not, who knows.

~Anniversary of $PTGX not getting bought. Funnily I’m on same vacation spot as back then, reflecting a bit on the stock. Stock returned +120%. Plenty of stocks out there where maybe a 30% premium isn’t what we should ask for. WeN yOu sElL MaRc, stock is lined down, mgmt bad!

Don’t know much about $ALEC but they got 50% of their market cap in cash and you can buy the stock basically unchanged? Won’t dive knot this at the pool but throwing some bps in there why not

$PCVX Did not analyse results in detail but this looks like a slam dunk from here at 65ish? Pediatrics PoS must’ve gone up significantly and valuation probably justified from adults alone roughly in 60s?

$FULC Funny Stock. You can buy NewCo at negative EV with >50% discount to merger but you only have ~6% upside to merger valuation. Still, this looks like free money or almost no risk at least sub 3.7

$XBI looks like a horrible day but the L/S spread should do okay today. Buyers will be back soon, first day in a while where I’m putting on stuff / increasing positions. On vacation so too lazy to say too much. See recent posts

Clinical biotech ($BBC) entering bear market territory. In only ~6 weeks 11% u/p vs $XBI and a staggering 33% u/p vs $ARKG Neverending fun for everybody even slightly L/S. Even with low exposure (but hedging with $XBI sadface), this is starting to hurt a bit. Still not straight bullish biotech but more & more workable setups popping up left&right

$ABVX Literally zero to add from me scientifically. Most discussions I see are either "wen 200$", "MdG bad guy because stock is line down" or "ABVX never M&A muuuh muttoned CD margin call blabla". Some things to actually consider imo: 1) Depending on your peak sales target and estimated duration (petent protection), UC is probably worth 80-125$ / share (3-4.5B$ peak at 90% PoS)? Adar1 hinting at some larger potential, but upside is going to take care of itself, I care more about downside. 2) CD is probably 70-80% of UC size wise? Most folks have it somewhere between 40-60% PoS? rNPV probably somewhere between 20 and 60$ /share with these inputs? 3) That combination makes it a super weird M&A ticket. If somebody pays let´s say 140$/share cash and CD fails, they might actually have a negative IRR or meaningful below cost of capital, even though they might have been right about UC -> Career risk for acquirer even if largely right. And at the same time that is probably a price where ABVX might still be hesitant to sell, because they look super dumb if CD eventually hits. 4) Size is an issue. Even 140$ is ~13B$ and with all the M&A seen so far, the list of pot. acquirors is not large. 5) Will we see a transaction that is very CVR-heavy? Say 100$ u/f (9.5B ticket, much more palatable) with a medium sized(UC) sales milestones for 4 and/or 5B$ annual sales and heavy CD milestones (depending on data / approval / sales)? Would increase the circle of acquirors meaningfully, as the transaction will partially pay for itself. That might actually bring the total ticket to 190+/share but the CD risk will be shared / stays with ABVX shareholders. 6) What is the downside on events that will clearly be interpreted as "no M&A"? EU partnership, launching solo, public announcement that company will not be sold before CD data? Without looking at the tape I´d say 75-85$/share is quite the strong floor as of now, but with apparently 20-30% of shareholders having the time horizon of a fruit fly, I´m not sure. Still, I weigh it like that. 7) If there is no M&A until CD data mid 2027, Short Puts might win the game for the next 3-6 months. Let´s see. But pretty sure there will be a run at some point. No way we will not get excited towards JPM? Not sure what I´m saying here exactly, but it seems to me you´re just getting paid here long term to endure all the daily bullshit in this stock today? Mostly wanted to put some thoughts to paper, maybe collect some insults from the haters.

Looking at $FHTX pre-market - will probably have net cash of ~1.25$/share at year-end (diluted sharecount is > 71mln). Nothing in clinic. INDs in 2027, clinical data hopefully in 2028? Net cash down to 0.3-0.7$/share by then? Lilly not only cancelled SMARCA2, but also cancels their other remaining development option. What´s to like here? EP300 seems somewhat interesting, but lots of competition already? Secret I&I asset? I miss the bear market, would´ve opened at 50 cents 18 months ago

$QURE shocker

$XBI $ARKG

$SRZN liked this earlier today, but 30$ is ~1B$ market cap diluted, roughly 12 mln shares wih cost basis in 11s coming online in two weeks

ATYR: We want approval! FDA: The drug doesn´t work, guys? ATYR: But if we show it works in another study? FDA: Yeah you can apply then, sure, but the drug doesn´t work? ATYR: ALIGNMENT!!!!