M. Eng. Electronic ⚡ 〰️ Financial data & analysis. Value investing. Growth? at a reasonable price 🦔 🧔🏻
EU
Joined February 2023
- Tweets54.3K
- Following147
- Followers4.6K
- Likes96.7K
Alex A.C. retweeted
$SKHY: "Demand remains so strong that customers' volume requirement is more than double that of what we can supply today."
Alex A.C. retweeted
Gavin Baker predicts cloud revenue growth will keep accelerating and more of the 2027 AI build-out than people think will be financed out of cash flow
“So all these clouds, they signed contracts at well below market values. And as those contracts reprice higher, as they bring on more compute with more spot, like we discussed, the same thing that CoreWeave is trying to do, I do think you’re going to see, like, there’s a pretty big acceleration in the clouds last quarter.”
“And forget relative to expectations, this or that, but I think you’re gonna see a pretty continuous acceleration in the sum of the big hyperscalers’ cloud revenue growth, the neoclouds. That number is just going to continue to accelerate.”
“And then it’s dropping down at very high margins so that operating cash flow is following. And then you’re gonna be able to finance probably more than people think of the 2027 build-out out of cash flow. I don’t know if we’ve seen the peak of external financing, but I think we’re getting close.”
Gavin Baker says Elon Musk giving every child in America a share of SpaceX is way better for America than a foundation, and more wealthy people should do what Elon, Michael Dell, and Brad Gerstner have done
“And maybe some of them will do what Elon did. You know, every child in America is going to have a share of SpaceX. That’s awesome. I think that’s way better for America than setting up some foundation that, you know, a board or a bunch of bureaucrats are going to decide how to allocate the money.”
“You know, just give people the money. Just let people make individual decisions. And I would encourage more companies and more wealthy people in America to do what Elon and Michael Dell and, of course, my friend Brad Gerstner have done.”
Alex A.C. retweeted
Cignal AI expects line systems to overtake coherent pluggables in spending on AI networks connecting multiple data-center sites by 2028.
$CIEN $NOK
Its October 21 forecast puts the line-system share at
29% in 2026
57% in 2030
These are the systems that carry and amplify the optical signals along the fiber routes between sites.
The total market for this specific application is forecast to reach $9.1B in 2030.
Applying the 57% share gives roughly $5.2B for line systems, my calculation from Cignal’s estimates.
I think that puts a lot more weight on the equipment along the route when evaluating the opportunity for Ciena and Nokia.
There’s also a component readthrough for $LITE.
Cignal identifies Raman amplification as a major cost driver and its pump lasers as one of the tightest parts of the supply chain. Lumentum offers those lasers and the amplifiers built around them.
As clusters spread across more sites, the distance between them can change how the optical budget gets divided.
In this specific forecast, the majority eventually goes into the line systems.
Alex A.C. retweeted
BREAKING: Verizon CEO admits he assumes everything SpaceX says it will do, it will do, and execute flawlessly, and says he takes its terrestrial moves "quite seriously"
Dan Schulman (CEO): “I also operate under the assumption that everything SpaceX says they will do, they will do, and that they will execute flawlessly. That’s my operating assumption on it. I think to assume anything else, makes no sense from my perspective."
"And everything that we’ve seen so far, all of their announcements, everything we’re hearing in the market, and I’ll talk about that in just a second, is so far the path that we’ve basically predicted that they would do."
"We always knew that they needed a terrestrial network to have any chance at providing a competitive service. I don’t really need to re-review the satellite beam physics, but just suffice to say that without a terrestrial network, their addressable market for broadband services is relatively small.”
"It’s in very rural areas, and their service just can’t compete with a terrestrial network. In suburban and urban areas where like 98% of our revenues are, we’re somewhere between 100 to 1,000 times more efficient than they are. And when you think about wireless, it’s even more difficult with them to compete on a satellite basis."
"And so I think that SpaceX realizes this, and they’re exploring a potential path to creating a terrestrial network. It’s not surprising they said it on their call, so I think we should take it quite seriously.”
Elon Musk explains how to build AI satellites on the moon from lunar silicon and aluminum, and says 500 to 1,000 terawatts a year cannot be launched from Earth
“Well, the lunar soil is 20% silicon or something like that. So you can mine the silicon on the moon, refine it, and create the solar cells and the radiators on the moon. So get the radiators out of aluminum. So there’s plenty of silicon and aluminum on the moon to make the cells and the radiators. The chips you could send from Earth because they’re pretty light. But maybe at some point you make them on the moon, too."
"Like I said, it does seem like a sort of a video game situation where it’s difficult but not impossible to get to the next level. I don’t see any way that you could do 500 to 1,000 terawatts per year launched from Earth.”
Alex A.C. retweeted
$GLW
🚨 CORNING'S AI FIBER BUSINESS IS NOW ITS PROFIT ENGINE: OPTICAL EARNS 1.6X WHAT GLASS DOES, AND EVEN THE LOW END OF THE Q4 GUIDE CLEARS THE STREET
CORNING, N.Y., Oct. 27 - Corning ($GLW) reported third-quarter 2026 results before the open. Core sales grew 19% to $5.08 billion, its fastest growth since the Springboard plan began, and core EPS grew 36% to $0.91, against a $0.88 consensus.
- Optical Communications sales $2.38 billion, up 44% from a year earlier and 15% from Q2
- Enterprise Networks up 84%, with Gen AI product sales more than doubling
- Core gross margin 40.5%, up 150 bp; core operating margin 22.7%, up 310 bp
- Q4 guide: core sales $5.2 billion to $5.3 billion, core EPS $0.96 to $1.00, against a $0.93 consensus
- Four long-term, multibillion-dollar customer agreements signed in Q3, including Verizon and AT&T
CEO Wendell Weeks said Gen AI sales doubled in the quarter, "outpacing GPU unit growth."
I put this quarter's segment table next to Q3 2025. A year ago Glass Innovations, the old display and specialty glass businesses, earned $363 million and optical earned $295 million. This quarter optical earned $532 million and glass earned $328 million. Optical also supplied about 90% of Corning's sales growth, both from a year earlier and from Q2.
A year ago glass paid the bills and fiber was the growth story. Now fiber is both.
Alex A.C. retweeted
I think it's very important to start distinguishing vocabulary between what's known as the neocloud sector.
The mistake many are still making is mixing in together every company that buys, builds, or hosts GPUs and datacenters.
There are significant differences between players like $NBIS that are pulling together full stack software and hardware cloud and managed inference services and companies that are simply providing bare metal, or even some that are just accumulating energy.
There are a number of subcategories within this space that need to start being broken down; to be transparent the moats are completely different, as will be there access to financing through any squeeze in capital markets.
Will be posting more on this soon. @SMASIMHO has done a great job of pushing more individual language when it comes to Nebius in particular.
As we are seeing with the basket selling across the sector and even confusion surrounding posts by @elonmusk , it's never been more important to educate both retail and institutional investors (many of which are STILL just taking revenue and guessing on a multiplier to model out this buildout).
We have always believed, at Northwise, that not all of these players will make it and that there will be a period of consolidation. This can be seen in every sector to have ever existed. There's nothing wrong or unusual about it.
During every sectorial boom there is VC like period where investors bet on a quantity of horses rather than the pack leaders. Every time there is a shift, once investors begin to realize that there are clear quality leaders.
This Short term period of anxiety surrounding the markets is a phenomenal time to reevaluate our approach as independent viewers of the sector.
You'll see shortly how massive the capex is going to be in 2027-2028 in our eyes.
It's our responsibility to better educate why companies like Nebius are not going to struggle to raise tens of billions, but also acknowledge this is the exception not the indefinite norm.
Alex A.C. retweeted
I am shocked, absolutely shocked, that Anthropic ARR has likely gone vertical in October after they cut token prices.
Except the exact same thing happened for the entire AI market, which is why GPU rental prices have surged while token prices declined.
$100b plus in year-end ARR looks possible again.
Alex A.C. retweeted
Congrats to Team @AnthropicAI on another important milestone! Altimeter looks forward to continuing our partnership w major participation in the IPO on top of our existing ownership. Day 1. 🇺🇸🚀 sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
Alex A.C. retweeted
It has been fascinating to watch this term go from niche to normal, both within institution and sovereigns.
Alex A.C. retweeted
This raises an obvious question: If CPO represents the future of optical connectivity, why would NVIDIA invest in reinventing pluggable optics?
The answer is not necessarily that NVIDIA has lost confidence in CPO. Rather, the AI infrastructure industry is entering a new phase in which the economics of optical interconnects can no longer be evaluated solely in terms of energy consumed per transmitted bit.
tspasemiconductor.substack.c…
Alex A.C. retweeted
Didn't Elon say in the earnings call to not get too excited about a potential merger? Curious to know why the odds are remaining so high since then.
$SPCX
🤝 Paid partnership
Alex A.C. retweeted
The present structure is unsustainable. The end-user cost of a barrel of oil has reached levels that cannot be maintained, while producers receive only a small share of the final delivered price—another imbalance that is equally unsustainable.
✴️Oil travels around the world only to be burned!
✴️The current Saudi oil route to Taiwan for this tanker goes like this:
✴️Move it from the east to the west coast via pipeline, then ship it from Yanbu to Ain Sukhna in Egypt. Transfer it through the SUMED pipeline to Sidi Kerir, then ship it all the way around Africa to Taiwan.
✴️Under normal conditions, it should take the much shorter yellow route.
✴️The world is wasting enormous resources because of this war.
Alex A.C. retweeted
$AXP American Express CEO: "Right now, we're helping to shape the standards for trusted agentic payments. The principle is straightforward. We need to know who the agent is, what the customer has authorized it to do and have a secure way to complete the payment. The transaction of the future will carry more than a payment credential. It will carry context."
Alex A.C. retweeted
Palmer Luckey reveals Oculus repeatedly found wiretap electronics hidden inside product samples from Chinese factories, and says they would listen in and transmit voice samples over cellular radio
“Here’s another example. How many computers exist in the Japanese government, critical utilities, infrastructure and the military? Millions, at least millions of computers.
“So then the question becomes: how many of them are compromised by Chinese intelligence operations placing listening devices or false components in them? Some people would say zero, and I think they’re crazy.
“I actually have personal experience with China placing listening devices into sample products that I would receive from Chinese factories. This was at my previous company, Oculus VR. My first company was a virtual-reality company I started when I was 19 years old.
“There were multiple times when we discovered actual wiretap electronics in product samples that were given to us. They would listen to us and transmit the voice samples over a cellular radio.
“If I experienced them trying to steal our technology and our decisions even as a small company, surely they’re targeting every government, every military, and every company.”
Palmer Luckey tries on Meta's new VR Glasses in a demo and says "wow"
"What's the weight on this." [100 grams]
"These optics are doing a great job of projecting ambient reflections."
"Wow, wow, that's way out there. Look at that."
"Whoa, whoa, whoa. This supports DisplayPort over USB-C? There's a lot of people who have been asking for that for a very long time."
"Wow."
Alex A.C. retweeted
$CCI is up 9% today because $SPCX could be the next next big wireless carrier.
$SPCX reportedly wants at least 80,000 U.S. cell sites which is about every U.S. tower $CCI and $AMT own combined.
Towers are already built so adding a new tenant is almost pure profit on long contracts with yearly price bumps. Interesting to see how seriously the market is taking $SPCX's entry into telecom.
Alex A.C. retweeted
BREAKING: SpaceX, $SPCX, is seeking access to at least 80,000 US cell tower sites as it prepares to launch a nationwide wireless carrier, per Bloomberg
