AltLineDemon retweeted
Jalen Williams Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists โ
Never a doubt
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Jalen Williams Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (-135, bet365)
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AltLineDemon retweeted
NBA POTD #1๐ (Oct. 20th)
Collab w/@SC_FFB ๐
1. Jalen Williams O8.5 RA (-135)
We really like this spot for Jalen Williams against San Antonio, especially when looking at his production in games where he gets his normal minutes.
Last season, Williams cleared 8.5 RA in 15/22 games (68.2%) when playing 25+ minutes, averaging 10.3 rebounds + assists.
The road split is even better, clearing this line in all 9 qualifying road games (100%). That consistency is encouraging considering OKC travels to San Antonio for this matchup.
The head-to-head numbers also support this play. Williams has cleared this line in 80% of his matchups against the Spurs when playing at least 25 minutes. Looking at his last 10 meetings with San Antonio, heโs averaging 10.9 RA, with several games finishing comfortably above this number.
The biggest factor here is playing time. When Williams gets 25+ minutes, his combination of rebounding opportunities and playmaking gives him multiple ways to clear this line.
He doesnโt need an exceptional game in either category, just his usual involvement on both ends.
With strong road splits, consistent production against San Antonio, and a line sitting below his qualifying averages, we like Williams to get to 9+ RA again.
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Jalen Williams Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (-135, bet365)
Full Card ๐
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NBA POTD #1๐ (Oct. 20th)
Collab w/@SC_FFB ๐
1. Jalen Williams O8.5 RA (-135)
We really like this spot for Jalen Williams against San Antonio, especially when looking at his production in games where he gets his normal minutes.
Last season, Williams cleared 8.5 RA in 15/22 games (68.2%) when playing 25+ minutes, averaging 10.3 rebounds + assists.
The road split is even better, clearing this line in all 9 qualifying road games (100%). That consistency is encouraging considering OKC travels to San Antonio for this matchup.
The head-to-head numbers also support this play. Williams has cleared this line in 80% of his matchups against the Spurs when playing at least 25 minutes. Looking at his last 10 meetings with San Antonio, heโs averaging 10.9 RA, with several games finishing comfortably above this number.
The biggest factor here is playing time. When Williams gets 25+ minutes, his combination of rebounding opportunities and playmaking gives him multiple ways to clear this line.
He doesnโt need an exceptional game in either category, just his usual involvement on both ends.
With strong road splits, consistent production against San Antonio, and a line sitting below his qualifying averages, we like Williams to get to 9+ RA again.
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George Kittle 15+ Receiving Yards in Each Half โ
โ
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George Kittle 15+ Receiving Yards in Each Half (-130, DraftKings)
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George Kittle 15+ Receiving Yards in Each Half (-130, DraftKings)
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MNF POTD๐ (Oct. 19th)
Collab w/@SC_FFB ๐
1. George Kittle 15+ Rec Yards each half (-130)
โข 53.5 receiving yards per game, averaging 4.2 receptions on 5.6 targets, trailing only Mike Evans (23.9% target share, 31.5% first read target share) for 2nd on the 49ers in both target share (19.7%) and first read target share (24.7%)
โข 58.7 receiving yards per game playing at least 50% of the teamโs offensive snaps, and/or running more than 15 routes, averaging 5.0 receptions on 6.3 targets, still trailing only Evans (27.9% target share, 36.2% first read target share) for 2nd on the 49ers in both target share (22.1%) and first read target share (25.9%)
โข Evans is questionable, currently leading the 49ers with a 23.9% target share and 31.5% first read target share
โข Deebo Samuel is out, vacating a 14.1% target share and 13.5% first read target share
โข 74.5 receiving yards per game in 2 career meetings against the Commanders with Brock Purdy under center, averaging 4.5 receptions on 6.0 targets, trailing only Brandon Aiyuk (31.3% target share, 33.3% first read target share), who is out, for 2nd on the 49ers in both target share (25.0%) and first read target share (28.2%)
โข The Commanders are 23rd in EPA per pass (0.05), 26th in DVOA against the pass (20.0%), and 31st in DVOA against tight ends (40.9%), allowing the 11th-most targets (8.2), the 7th-most receptions (6.4), and the 5th-most receiving yards (74.4) per game to the position
AltLineDemon retweeted
MNF POTD๐ (Oct. 19th)
Collab w/@SC_FFB ๐
1. George Kittle 15+ Rec Yards each half (-130)
โข 53.5 receiving yards per game, averaging 4.2 receptions on 5.6 targets, trailing only Mike Evans (23.9% target share, 31.5% first read target share) for 2nd on the 49ers in both target share (19.7%) and first read target share (24.7%)
โข 58.7 receiving yards per game playing at least 50% of the teamโs offensive snaps, and/or running more than 15 routes, averaging 5.0 receptions on 6.3 targets, still trailing only Evans (27.9% target share, 36.2% first read target share) for 2nd on the 49ers in both target share (22.1%) and first read target share (25.9%)
โข Evans is questionable, currently leading the 49ers with a 23.9% target share and 31.5% first read target share
โข Deebo Samuel is out, vacating a 14.1% target share and 13.5% first read target share
โข 74.5 receiving yards per game in 2 career meetings against the Commanders with Brock Purdy under center, averaging 4.5 receptions on 6.0 targets, trailing only Brandon Aiyuk (31.3% target share, 33.3% first read target share), who is out, for 2nd on the 49ers in both target share (25.0%) and first read target share (28.2%)
โข The Commanders are 23rd in EPA per pass (0.05), 26th in DVOA against the pass (20.0%), and 31st in DVOA against tight ends (40.9%), allowing the 11th-most targets (8.2), the 7th-most receptions (6.4), and the 5th-most receiving yards (74.4) per game to the position
AltLineDemon retweeted
NFL POTD #1๐ (Oct. 18th)
Collab w/@PropKitchen ๐จโ๐ณ
1. Kenneth Walker O19.5 Rush Atts(-104)
Walker has been everything Andy Reid & Patrick Mahomes were looking for out of a running back and with two starting WRs out, we expect another high volume game for him against the Chargers.
Walker has went over this line in 3/4 games, with an average of 21.8 rushing attempts per game. He has received 87 carries compared to only 16 for Emmett Johnson, giving Walker roughly 85% of the rushing attempts between Kansas Cityโs two primary backs. In the Chiefsโ last game, Walker handled all 22 RB carries and accounted for 23 of 24 total RB opportunities.
Kansas City has been one of the more committed rushing offenses in football, ranking 11th in team rush rate while producing one of the leagueโs most efficient designed rushing attacks. Walker's 134.3 rushing yards per game leads the NFL & with Rashee Rice out and Kansas City coming off the bye, thereโs little reason to expect them to move away from a rushing attack that has been working.
The Chargers have consistently allowed opponents to build volume on the ground, ranking 30th in opponent rushing attempts, 31st in early down rush rate allowed and 28th against RB rushing attempts. Several primary backs have already cleared their individual rushing attempt lines against Los Angeles:
โ
James Cook: 24 RA (Line: 17.5)
โ
Ashton Jeanty: 21 RA (Line: 15.5)
โ
Emanuel Wilson: 21 RA (Line: 13.5)
โ
J.K. Dobbins: 18 RA (Line: 13.5)
Kansas City enters as roughly a 7.5 point home favorite, giving Walker a strong path to another full workload if the Chiefs control the game. Opponents are averaging more than 31 team rushing attempts per game against the Chargers, and Walker has been taking such a large percentage of Kansas Cityโs backfield work that the Chiefs donโt need an extreme run heavy game for him to reach 20 carries.
Walker has established himself as the clear engine of Kansas Cityโs rushing attack, and the matchup gives the Chiefs every reason to keep feeding him. With his backfield control and a favorable game script at home, we like KW9 to go over this line again for us!
AltLineDemon retweeted
WALKER WILL FEAST โข๏ธ
๐ NFL Prop #2 (10/18)
๐ฝ๏ธ ๐๐๐ง๐ง๐๐ญ๐ก ๐๐๐ฅ๐ค๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ก ๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ฌ
Cooked w/ @AltLineDemon ๐
LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
- Walker has been everything Andy Reid & Patrick Mahomes were looking for out of a running back, and with two starting WRs out, we expect another high-volume game for him against the Chargers.
- Walker has gone over this line in 3/4 games, averaging 21.8 rushing attempts per game. He has received 87 carries compared to only 16 for Emmett Johnson, giving Walker roughly 85% of the rushing attempts between Kansas Cityโs two primary backs. In the Chiefsโ last game, Walker handled all 22 RB carries and accounted for 23 of 24 total RB opportunities.
- Kansas City has been one of the more committed rushing offenses in football, ranking 11th in team rush rate while producing one of the leagueโs most efficient designed rushing attacks. Walkerโs 134.3 rushing yards per game leads the NFL, and with Rashee Rice out and Kansas City coming off the bye, thereโs little reason to expect them to move away from a rushing attack that has been working.
- The Chargers have consistently allowed opponents to build volume on the ground, ranking 30th in opponent rushing attempts, 31st in early-down rush rate allowed and 28th against RB rushing attempts. Several primary backs have already cleared their individual rushing attempt lines against Los Angeles:
โ
James Cook: 24 RA | Line: 17.5
โ
Ashton Jeanty: 21 RA | Line: 15.5
โ
Emanuel Wilson: 21 RA | Line: 13.5
โ
J.K. Dobbins: 18 RA | Line: 13.5
- Kansas City enters as roughly a 7.5-point home favorite, giving Walker a strong path to another full workload if the Chiefs control the game. Opponents are averaging more than 31 team rushing attempts per game against the Chargers, and Walker has been taking such a large percentage of Kansas Cityโs backfield work that the Chiefs donโt need an extreme run-heavy game for him to reach 20 carries.
- Walker has established himself as the clear engine of Kansas Cityโs rushing attack, and the matchup gives the Chiefs every reason to keep feeding him. With his backfield control and a favorable game script at home, we like KW9 to go over this line again for us.
Best Odds: -104 DraftKings
๐ Data via @PropsMadness
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START SUNDAY WITH A WIN โ
๐ NFL Prop #1 (10/17)
๐ฝ๏ธ ๐๐จ๐จ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ
Cooked w/ @DDOGGSTACKS ๐ค @FrannysPlays
LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
- Marks finished with an 85% snap share last week after Montgomeryโs injury. That was the 2nd-highest snap share of his career, and I expect him to be HEAVILY utilized out of Houstonโs backfield again this week.
- Jacksonvilleโs rush defense has been one of the best in the entire league, so I expect Houston to struggle getting much going on the ground. That should naturally force them into more passing situations and create plenty of opportunities for Marks underneath.
- ESPECIALLY on a trip to London where Jacksonville is extremely comfortable playing and has been there for two weeks now. I expect their defensive front to have the advantage and put pressure on Stroud, forcing him to get the ball out quickly and take easy RB checkdowns when theyโre available. We only need 15 yards here, so a couple receptions should be enough to get this home.
- Marks is OVER this line in 3/4 games with 3+ targets and is also OVER in 2/3 losses when seeing a 50%+ snap share. Backing Woody for an EARLY winner across the pond! ๐ฌ๐ง
Best Odds: -112 DraftKings
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PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #1๐จโ๐ณ
4.5x๐ฐ
1. Jose Ramirez O1.5 HFS๐ฎ
2. Parker Messick U5.5 HA๐
3. Bobby McMann O1.5 SOG๐
4. Mitch Marner O1.5 SOG๐
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Chalkboard FREE Square๐
3.29x๐ฐ
1. Jalon Daniels O0.5 Pass Yardsโก๏ธ
2. CeeDee Lamb O4.5 Recs๐
3. Chris Godwin Jr. O3.5 Recs๐
AltLineDemon retweeted
TNF FREE Square x PrizePicks๐
4.25x๐ฐ
1. Dak Prescott O0.5 Pass Yardsโก๏ธ
2. CeeDee Lamb O24.5 Longest Rec๐
3. Chris Godwin Jr. O24.5 Rec Yards๐
4. Javonte Williams O1.5 Recs๐
AltLineDemon retweeted
TNF POTD๐ (Oct. 8th)
Collab w/@PropKitchen ๐จโ๐ณ
1. Chris Godwin Jr. O27.5 Rec Yards(-115)
#WeAreTheKrewe
With Baker Mayfield out, we still like the path for Godwin to clear this number with Daniels under center.
In Danielsโ last start without Baker, he attempted 27 passes, so the passing volume was still there.
Godwin was also clearly involved, finishing with 7 targets, 6 receptions, and 31 receiving yards.
This does not require Godwin to break a big play or have a ceiling game. He just needs to stay active in the short-to-intermediate passing game, where he can be a reliable outlet for Daniels.
If Tampa keeps the offense simple, Godwin should continue seeing quick looks and chain-moving targets.
The matchup also supports it. Dallas has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to wide receivers, so there should be room for WR production in this spot.
If Tampa is playing from behind or forced into a pass-heavy script, that only helps Godwinโs volume.
Similar usage should be enough for Godwin to get over 27.5 again.
AltLineDemon retweeted
TRUST IN GODWIN ๐ซก
๐ NFL TNF Dish #2 (10/8)
๐ฝ๏ธ ๐๐ก๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ
Cooked w/ @AltLineDemon ๐
LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
- With Baker Mayfield out, we still like the path for Godwin to clear this number with Jalon Daniels under center.
- In Danielsโ last start without Baker, he attempted 27 passes, so the passing volume was still there. Godwin was also clearly involved, finishing with 7 targets, 6 receptions and 31 receiving yards.
- This does not require Godwin to break a big play or have a ceiling game. He just needs to stay active in the short-to-intermediate passing game, where he can be a reliable outlet for Daniels.
- If Tampa keeps the offense simple, Godwin should continue seeing quick looks and chain-moving targets.
- The matchup also supports it. Dallas has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to wide receivers, so there should be room for WR production in this spot.
- This should be another positive game script for the Bucs passing offense with Dallas entering as touchdown favorites. If Tampa is playing from behind or forced into a pass-heavy script, that only helps Godwinโs volume.
- Similar usage should be enough for Godwin to get over this line again.
S/O my guys @FrannysPlays and @ChronicBets, saw them post it first! ๐ค
Best Odds: -114 FanDuel
๐ Data via @PropsMadness
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CEEDEE WILL COOK ๐งโ๐ณ
๐ NFL Dish #1 (10/8)
๐ฝ๏ธ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฆ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง
Cooked w/ @TheGr8Picks ๐ค @hotshotfantasy
LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
- CeeDee and Dak have connected for a 25+ yard pass in 3/4 games this season. If we take a look at the bigger picture, Lamb has gone over this line in 22 of his last 30 games.
- Lamb has 37 catches for 498 yards through four games, averaging 13.5 yards per reception, with a 49-yard long already this season. More importantly for this prop, he has recorded receptions of 49, 38 and 30 yards in three of his four games.
- The matchup also sets up well for a big play. Tampa Bay has done a good job limiting some elite receivers this year, but Dallas moves Lamb around the formation rather than simply leaving him in one spot. The Bucs specifically identify Lamb as the key matchup and note that he can win at all three levels of the field. In Houston last week, he lined up outside for 10 receptions and in the slot for another seven.
- The Bucs allow the 5th-most yards after the catch, and against teams in the bottom half of the league in YAC defense, Lamb has gone over this line in 12/14 games while averaging a 38-yard longest reception.
- Even if Tampa Bay tries to keep everything underneath, Lamb only needs one busted coverage, double move, deep crosser or yards-after-catch play to get past this line.
Still like at 25.5, would only do 0.75u on 27+
Best Odds: -130 Fanatics
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AltLineDemon retweeted
MLB POTD #1โพ๏ธ (Oct. 6th)
Collab w/@DDOGGSTACKS ๐ถ
1. Dodgers ML (-104)
#Dodgers
โ๏ธ@DDOGGSTACKS
Love backing the Dodgers here. The series is tied 1-1 after Atlanta took Game 2, but Iโm not too concerned about that loss. Los Angeles had its chances offensively and went 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position. Thatโs not something I expect this lineup to keep doing, especially with the amount of talent up and down the order.
The biggest reason I like LA here is the pitching matchup. Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the start for the Dodgers, and heโs been exactly the type of arm they can rely on in a spot like this. He finished the regular season 14-9 with a 2.53 ERA and gives Los Angeles a major advantage on the mound. Atlanta will counter with Chris Sale, but Iโd rather trust Yamamoto and the Dodgers rotation in this spot.
Then thereโs the Dodgers lineup. Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy have already went deep in this series, and thereโs simply too much depth for this offense to stay quiet for long. If LA can convert a few more of the opportunities it had in Game 2, I expect the offense to look much better here.
Atlanta already got its momentum swing by stealing Game 2. Now Iโm looking for the Dodgers to answer. Give us LA behind Yamamoto, the deeper lineup, and the overall pitching advantage to bounce back and take Game 3.
AltLineDemon retweeted
โพ๏ธ MLB Play (10/6)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
#Dodgers
Collab with @AltLineDemon ๐
Love backing the Dodgers here. The series is tied 1-1 after Atlanta took Game 2, but Iโm not too concerned about that loss. Los Angeles had its chances offensively and went 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position. Thatโs not something I expect this lineup to keep doing, especially with the amount of talent up and down the order.
The biggest reason I like LA here is the pitching matchup. Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the start for the Dodgers, and heโs been exactly the type of arm they can rely on in a spot like this. He finished the regular season 14-9 with a 2.53 ERA and gives Los Angeles a major advantage on the mound. Atlanta will counter with Chris Sale, but Iโd rather trust Yamamoto and the Dodgers rotation in this spot.
Then thereโs the Dodgers lineup. Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy have already went deep in this series, and thereโs simply too much depth for this offense to stay quiet for long. If LA can convert a few more of the opportunities it had in Game 2, I expect the offense to look much better here.
Atlanta already got its momentum swing by stealing Game 2. Now Iโm looking for the Dodgers to answer. Give us LA behind Yamamoto, the deeper lineup, and the overall pitching advantage to bounce back and take Game 3.
Like and Follow if tailing๐พ
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Free Year of VIP to a random LIKE โค๏ธ
3-0 NFL/MLB MONDAY SWEEP ๐งน ๏ฟผ๏ฟผ๏ฟผ
โ
Juwan Johnson o3.5 Receptions
โ
Bijan Robinson o16.5 Longest Rush
โ
Guardins +0.5 F5 / Ben Rice o0.5 HRR
Letโs keep cooking! ๐งโ๐ณ
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๐ฐ๐ฐ
Another Samโs Club Collab BANGER!
@SC_FFB @Mayhemsports_ ๐ค
NFL POTD #1๐ (Sept. 4th)
Collab w/@SC_FFB ๐
1. Drake London O4.5 Recs (-148)
#DirtyBirds
Running this one back with London.
When Penix is under center, London has been a completely different level of reliable. Heโs cleared this line in 12 of his last 15 games with Penix, and the volume has been very consistent in this setup.
In Penixโs return game, London immediately saw 10 targets and turned them into 9 catches, which shows the chemistry is still there and that heโs clearly the first read in this offense.
The matchup also lines up well. New Orleans ranks 26th in receptions allowed to WRs, so this is a defense that has been giving up volume through the air. London doesnโt need a huge yardage game here, he just needs 5 catches, and his target share gives him a strong path to get there.
Game script helps too. Atlanta comes in as slight dogs, which should keep them aggressive and force more passing volume if theyโre playing from behind or chasing points late. That benefits London more than anyone else in this offense.
With Penix back, Londonโs role is clear: high target share, reliable usage, and a matchup that allows WR receptions. At 4.5, I like him to clear this again.
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AltLineDemon retweeted
NFL POTD #1๐ (Sept. 4th)
Collab w/@SC_FFB ๐
1. Drake London O4.5 Recs (-148)
#DirtyBirds
Running this one back with London.
When Penix is under center, London has been a completely different level of reliable. Heโs cleared this line in 12 of his last 15 games with Penix, and the volume has been very consistent in this setup.
In Penixโs return game, London immediately saw 10 targets and turned them into 9 catches, which shows the chemistry is still there and that heโs clearly the first read in this offense.
The matchup also lines up well. New Orleans ranks 26th in receptions allowed to WRs, so this is a defense that has been giving up volume through the air. London doesnโt need a huge yardage game here, he just needs 5 catches, and his target share gives him a strong path to get there.
Game script helps too. Atlanta comes in as slight dogs, which should keep them aggressive and force more passing volume if theyโre playing from behind or chasing points late. That benefits London more than anyone else in this offense.
With Penix back, Londonโs role is clear: high target share, reliable usage, and a matchup that allows WR receptions. At 4.5, I like him to clear this again.
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AltLineDemon retweeted
Drake London Over 4.5 Receptions: -148 โ -300
CLV Secured ๐
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Samโs Club Collab with @AltLineDemon ๐ค
Drake London Over 4.5 Receptions (-148, FanDuel)
Run it backโ๏ธ
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