▫️Data Driven Sports Picks ▫️2700+ Discord Members ▫️Anthony Edwards Stan | #SKOL ▫️VIP Access (YTD +112.55u) ↙️
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NFL Sunday Recap
3-4 | Odunze hooks. Had a 20 yard reception called back on a hold. Colts blew a 13-0 lead to the Titans…feel like we deserved a 5-2 day. We will keep grinding.
✅Justin Herbert o191.5 Pass Yards
✅Blake Corum o39.5 Rush Yards
✅Tre Tucker o37.5 Rec Yards
🪝Rome Odunze o39.5 Rec Yards
❌Juwan Johnson o39.5 Rec Yards
❌Denzel Boston o22.5 Long Rec
❌Colts + Patriots MLP
Justin Herbert o191.5 Pass Yards ✅✅
Ugly game but we will take it nonetheless!
Another cash for VIP members to salvage! 💎
Tre Tucker o37.5 Rec Yards ✅✅
Sweaty for no reason after 31 in the 1H!
4 recs for 53 and a TD will do just fine.
Collab winner w/ @Picks_x_Stevie 🤝
❤️ if you tailed!
NFL Sunday Play #2 | 10/18 🏈
Tre Tucker Over 37.5 Rec Yards
DK -114 | 1u
Collab w/ @Picks_x_Stevie 🤝
Tucker has covered in 4/5 games this year including 4 straight. Holds a 16.1% target share behind Bowers as the clear 2nd option in the pass game. 4+ targets in 5/5 games.
Couldn’t ask for a better matchup vs the Bills secondary who allow the MOST receptions to WRs (15.2) - 2nd MOST targets to WRs (23.2) - and 4th MOST rec yards to WRs (187.4) per game. Multiple WRs have cleared this number in every game this year vs the Bills.
Couldn’t ask for a better route matchup either. The Bills rank 25th-31st against out - go - curl - and slant routes which combine for over 57% of Tuckers route usage.
The Raiders are 4.5 dogs in this one as well which makes me like it even more. Expecting a trailing/pass heavy script especially with Jeanty dealing with some lingering foot pain. Multiple WRs have covered this number every week this season vs the Bills. Perfect setting for Cousins to be looking Tuckers way often again. Give me the over. Playable up to 39.5 if you don’t have access to this number.
❤️ if your tailing!
📊 @PropsEdge
Blake Corum 40+ Rush Yards ✅✅
Paid to eat some juice here. VIP cash 💎
Very much needed to stop the bleeding.
Chronic retweeted
NFL Sunday Play #4 | 10/18 🏈
Denzel Boston Over 22.5 Longest Rec
FD -122 | 1u
Collab w/ @PropKitchen 👨🍳
Boston has established himself as Cleveland’s primary vertical threat immediately as a rookie, averaging 20.6 yards per reception with a 17.5 yard aDOT. He has cleared this line in all 5 games this season, recording a longest reception of at least 28 yards every week while averaging 43.6 yards on his longest catch. Boston owns 46% of Cleveland’s air yards and already has 9 deep targets, giving him consistent opportunities to create the one explosive play we need.
Baltimore has struggled badly against opposing WRs, allowing the 5th most receiving yards, 6th most receptions and the highest percentage of receiving yards to WRs in the NFL at 77.4%. The Ravens have been particularly vulnerable downfield, allowing 59.9 receiving yards per game on throws traveling 20+ yards in the air, the 4th most in football.
Eight different WRs have already recorded a reception of 22+ yards against Baltimore this season 👇
🎯 Drake London: 25 yards
🎯 Jahan Dotson: 36 yards
🎯 Carnell Tate: 33 yards
🎯 Elic Ayomanor: 22 yards
🎯 CeeDee Lamb: 49 yards
🎯 Devaughn Vele: 29 yards
🎯 Josh Downs: 25 yards
🎯 Alec Pierce: 23 yards
The coverage matchup is one of my favorite parts of this play. Baltimore uses two high coverage at roughly a 64% rate, the 4th highest in the NFL, while Boston has been significantly better against those looks. His target share jumps from roughly 18% to 25.5% and his yards per route run increases from 2.10 to 3.13. Deshaun Watson has been productive against two high coverage as well, giving Cleveland every reason to continue looking for Boston downfield.
Boston doesn’t necessarily need Watson to hit him on a 30 yard bomb either. He has shown legitimate ability after the catch with roughly 6.9 YAC per reception, giving him another way to turn an intermediate completion into the explosive gain we need. Baltimore’s secondary has consistently allowed chunk plays to WRs, and this coverage structure fits Boston’s strengths extremely well. We like him to go over this line for the 6th straight game.
❤️ if your tailing!
📊 @PropsEdge
Chronic retweeted
NFL Sunday Play #3 | 10/18 🏈
Rome Odunze o39.5 Rec Yards
TheScoreBet -125 | 1u
Collab w/ @DDOGGSTACKS 🤝
Rome has covered this line in 5/5 games this season including 14/L20 dating back to last year. Caleb is trending in the right direction with multiple full practices this week which only helps Rome.
The matchup is quality. The Falcons are allowing the 5th most receptions (14.6) - the MOST targets (23.4) - and the 6th most receptions yards (181.0) per game to WRs this year. On the flip side their run defense rank in the top 5 for rush yards and carries to RBs. Don’t see the Bears having much success running the ball.
The Falcons rank 27th against go-routes - 25th against out-routes - and 31st against comeback-routes which combine for nearly 60% of Romes route tree. 52% of his targets come in zones where the defensive matchup is favorable. WRs have eaten in this matchup all season:
Flowers - 53 | Bateman - 62
Olave - 116 | Vele - 54
Golden - 100 | Watson - 96
McMillan - 101 | Coker - 66
Pittman - 58 | Metcalf - 40
The Bears are 2.5 dogs here. Expecting a trailing to neutral script at worst with a pass heavy lean given the matchup. Rome should see a big snap% again. 2+ WRs have covered this number in 5/5 weeks this season against the Falcons and we see the same thing happening this week. Give us the over!
❤️ if your tailing!
📊 @PropsEdge
Chronic retweeted
NFL Sunday Play #2 | 10/18 🏈
Tre Tucker Over 37.5 Rec Yards
DK -114 | 1u
Collab w/ @Picks_x_Stevie 🤝
Tucker has covered in 4/5 games this year including 4 straight. Holds a 16.1% target share behind Bowers as the clear 2nd option in the pass game. 4+ targets in 5/5 games.
Couldn’t ask for a better matchup vs the Bills secondary who allow the MOST receptions to WRs (15.2) - 2nd MOST targets to WRs (23.2) - and 4th MOST rec yards to WRs (187.4) per game. Multiple WRs have cleared this number in every game this year vs the Bills.
Couldn’t ask for a better route matchup either. The Bills rank 25th-31st against out - go - curl - and slant routes which combine for over 57% of Tuckers route usage.
The Raiders are 4.5 dogs in this one as well which makes me like it even more. Expecting a trailing/pass heavy script especially with Jeanty dealing with some lingering foot pain. Multiple WRs have covered this number every week this season vs the Bills. Perfect setting for Cousins to be looking Tuckers way often again. Give me the over. Playable up to 39.5 if you don’t have access to this number.
❤️ if your tailing!
📊 @PropsEdge
Chronic retweeted
NFL Sunday Play #1 | 10/18 🏈
Juwan Johnson 40+ Rec Yards
FD -114 | 1u
Cooked w/ @FrannysPlays 🤝
Loving the BOUNCE BACK spot for Juwan after a tough Week 5 against Minnesota. Even though he finished with only 16 yards, he STILL saw 5 targets.
Before last week, Juwan had cleared this number in SEVEN STRAIGHT games with Shough averaging 68.1 receiving yards per game. That stretch included 54, 66, 53 & 59 yards to start this season after finishing last year with 61, 95 & 89.
Now he gets a Giants defense that has already been beaten by TE’s this season. Terrance Ferguson went for 54 yards against them in Week 2 and Chig Okonkwo just finished with 60 yards last week.
Chris Olave has also missed practices to start the week with an illness. That only creates an even clearer path toward Juwan being one of Shough’s primary options in the middle of the field this week. I’m trusting the ROLE and expecting an immediate bounce back.
❤️ if your tailing!
📊 @PropsEdge
Chronic retweeted
THE ROOK WILL COOK 🧑🍳
🏈 NFL Prop #4 (10/18)
🍽️ 𝐃𝐞𝐧𝐳𝐞𝐥 𝐁𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑 𝟐𝟐.𝟓 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
Cooked w/ @ChronicBets 🤝
LIKE IF TAILING ❤️
- Boston has established himself as Cleveland’s primary vertical threat immediately as a rookie, averaging 20.6 yards per reception with a 17.5-yard aDOT. He has cleared this line in all 5 games this season, recording a longest reception of at least 28 yards every week while averaging 43.6 yards on his longest catch. Boston owns 46% of Cleveland’s air yards and already has 9 deep targets, giving him consistent opportunities to create the one explosive play we need.
- Baltimore has struggled badly against opposing WRs, allowing the 5th-most receiving yards, 6th-most receptions and the highest percentage of receiving yards to WRs in the NFL at 77.4%. The Ravens have been particularly vulnerable downfield, allowing 59.9 receiving yards per game on throws traveling 20+ yards in the air, the 4th-most in football.
Eight different WRs have already recorded a reception of 22+ yards against Baltimore this season 👇
🎯 Drake London: 25 yards
🎯 Jahan Dotson: 36 yards
🎯 Carnell Tate: 33 yards
🎯 Elic Ayomanor: 22 yards
🎯 CeeDee Lamb: 49 yards
🎯 Devaughn Vele: 29 yards
🎯 Josh Downs: 25 yards
🎯 Alec Pierce: 23 yards
- The coverage matchup is one of my favorite parts of this play. Baltimore uses two-high coverage at roughly a 64% rate, the 4th-highest in the NFL, while Boston has been significantly better against those looks. His target share jumps from roughly 18% to 25.5%, and his yards per route run increases from 2.10 to 3.13. Deshaun Watson has been productive against two-high coverage as well, giving Cleveland every reason to continue looking for Boston downfield.
- Boston doesn’t necessarily need Watson to hit him on a 30-yard bomb either. He has shown legitimate ability after the catch with roughly 6.9 YAC per reception, giving him another way to turn an intermediate completion into the explosive gain we need. Baltimore’s secondary has consistently allowed chunk plays to WRs, and this coverage structure fits Boston’s strengths extremely well. We like him to go over this line for the 6th straight game.
Best Odds: -125 Fliff / -120 Hard Rock
📊 Data via @PropsMadness
Use code PROPKITCHEN for 25% off your first purchase!
📣 Turn notifications on for daily prop bets!
#NFL #NFLPicks #SportsBetting #PlayerProps #GamblingX
EVERYBODY LOVES RAYMOND ❤️🔥
🏈 NFL Prop #3 (10/18)
🍽️ 𝐊𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐟 𝐑𝐚𝐲𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑 𝟐.𝟓 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
Cooked w/ @hotshotfantasy 🤝
LIKE IF TAILING ❤️
- Raymond has quietly become one of Chicago’s most reliable short-area targets this season, catching 24 of 27 targets while clearing this line in 4/5 games. He is averaging 4.8 receptions per game with an 88.9% catch rate, and the biggest boost here is Caleb Williams returning. In Caleb’s two starts, Raymond caught 13 of 14 targets, giving him a 25.5% target share across the entire offense.
- Raymond’s production dropped when Caleb went down, but even during that stretch he still had 11 catches in 3 games with Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum at QB.
- Raymond carries a 6.4-yard aDOT, has yet to record a drop and is being targeted on roughly 22% of his routes. He doesn’t need explosive plays or a huge yardage game to get there because most of his opportunities come underneath, where Williams and Ben Johnson have consistently trusted him as an easy completion. Atlanta plays single-high coverage roughly 64% of the time, while Raymond has earned a target on 24% of his routes against those looks.
- Atlanta has given opposing WRs plenty of opportunities through the air, allowing the 5th-most WR receptions and 3rd-most WR targets while ranking 26th in opponent aDOT. The Falcons are short-handed in the secondary as well with A.J. Terrell on IR and C.J. Henderson ruled out. Several WRs with similar secondary roles have already cleared their reception lines against Atlanta:
✅ Jalen Coker: 8 REC | Line: 4.5
✅ Devaughn Vele: 6 REC | Line: 3.5
✅ Matthew Golden: 5 REC | Line: 4.5
✅ Rashod Bateman: 5 REC | Line: 1.5
- Chicago’s passing offense should look much closer to what we saw early in the season with Williams back, when Raymond immediately established himself as one of his most frequently targeted options. This is a great spot for his involvement to pick back up and once again go over this line.
Best Odds: -124 DraftKings
📊 Data via @PropsMadness
Use code PROPKITCHEN for 25% off your first purchase!
📣 Turn notifications on for daily prop bets!
#NFL #NFLPicks #SportsBetting #PlayerProps #GamblingX
NFL Sunday Play #4 | 10/18 🏈
Denzel Boston Over 22.5 Longest Rec
FD -122 | 1u
Collab w/ @PropKitchen 👨🍳
Boston has established himself as Cleveland’s primary vertical threat immediately as a rookie, averaging 20.6 yards per reception with a 17.5 yard aDOT. He has cleared this line in all 5 games this season, recording a longest reception of at least 28 yards every week while averaging 43.6 yards on his longest catch. Boston owns 46% of Cleveland’s air yards and already has 9 deep targets, giving him consistent opportunities to create the one explosive play we need.
Baltimore has struggled badly against opposing WRs, allowing the 5th most receiving yards, 6th most receptions and the highest percentage of receiving yards to WRs in the NFL at 77.4%. The Ravens have been particularly vulnerable downfield, allowing 59.9 receiving yards per game on throws traveling 20+ yards in the air, the 4th most in football.
Eight different WRs have already recorded a reception of 22+ yards against Baltimore this season 👇
🎯 Drake London: 25 yards
🎯 Jahan Dotson: 36 yards
🎯 Carnell Tate: 33 yards
🎯 Elic Ayomanor: 22 yards
🎯 CeeDee Lamb: 49 yards
🎯 Devaughn Vele: 29 yards
🎯 Josh Downs: 25 yards
🎯 Alec Pierce: 23 yards
The coverage matchup is one of my favorite parts of this play. Baltimore uses two high coverage at roughly a 64% rate, the 4th highest in the NFL, while Boston has been significantly better against those looks. His target share jumps from roughly 18% to 25.5% and his yards per route run increases from 2.10 to 3.13. Deshaun Watson has been productive against two high coverage as well, giving Cleveland every reason to continue looking for Boston downfield.
Boston doesn’t necessarily need Watson to hit him on a 30 yard bomb either. He has shown legitimate ability after the catch with roughly 6.9 YAC per reception, giving him another way to turn an intermediate completion into the explosive gain we need. Baltimore’s secondary has consistently allowed chunk plays to WRs, and this coverage structure fits Boston’s strengths extremely well. We like him to go over this line for the 6th straight game.
❤️ if your tailing!
📊 @PropsEdge
Chronic retweeted
🏈 NFL Sunday Play (10/18)
Rome Odunze o39.5 Receiving Yards
#DaBears
Collab with @ChronicBets 🧪
Rome has covered this line in 5/5 games this season including 14/L20 dating back to last year. Caleb is trending in the right direction with multiple full practices this week which only helps Rome.
The matchup is quality. The Falcons are allowing the 5th most receptions (14.6) - the MOST targets (23.4) - and the 6th most receptions yards (181.0) per game to WRs this year. On the flip side their run defense rank in the top 5 for rush yards and carries to RBs. Don’t see the Bears having much success running the ball.
The Falcons rank 27th against go-routes - 25th against out-routes - and 31st against comeback-routes which combine for nearly 60% of Romes route tree. 52% of his targets come in zones where the defensive matchup is favorable. WRs have eaten in this matchup all season:
Flowers - 53 | Bateman - 62
Olave - 116 | Vele - 54
Golden - 100 | Watson - 96
McMillan - 101 | Coker - 66
Pittman - 58 | Metcalf - 40
The Bears are 2.5 dogs here. Expecting a trailing to neutral script at worst with a pass heavy lean given the matchup. Rome should see a big snap% again. 2+ WRs have covered this number in 5/5 weeks this season against the Falcons and we see the same thing happening this week. Give us the over!
Like and Follow if tailing🐾
📊 @PropsEdge
NFL Sunday Play #3 | 10/18 🏈
Rome Odunze o39.5 Rec Yards
TheScoreBet -125 | 1u
Collab w/ @DDOGGSTACKS 🤝
Rome has covered this line in 5/5 games this season including 14/L20 dating back to last year. Caleb is trending in the right direction with multiple full practices this week which only helps Rome.
The matchup is quality. The Falcons are allowing the 5th most receptions (14.6) - the MOST targets (23.4) - and the 6th most receptions yards (181.0) per game to WRs this year. On the flip side their run defense rank in the top 5 for rush yards and carries to RBs. Don’t see the Bears having much success running the ball.
The Falcons rank 27th against go-routes - 25th against out-routes - and 31st against comeback-routes which combine for nearly 60% of Romes route tree. 52% of his targets come in zones where the defensive matchup is favorable. WRs have eaten in this matchup all season:
Flowers - 53 | Bateman - 62
Olave - 116 | Vele - 54
Golden - 100 | Watson - 96
McMillan - 101 | Coker - 66
Pittman - 58 | Metcalf - 40
The Bears are 2.5 dogs here. Expecting a trailing to neutral script at worst with a pass heavy lean given the matchup. Rome should see a big snap% again. 2+ WRs have covered this number in 5/5 weeks this season against the Falcons and we see the same thing happening this week. Give us the over!
❤️ if your tailing!
📊 @PropsEdge
Chronic retweeted
🚨 NFL - FREE - PLAY WEEK 6 🚨
Collab w/@ChronicBets
Tre Tucker O37.5 RECY
-114 || Onyx
Check out the @ChalkExchange discord!
🔗 in comments ⬇️⬇️
NFL Sunday Play #2 | 10/18 🏈
Tre Tucker Over 37.5 Rec Yards
DK -114 | 1u
Collab w/ @Picks_x_Stevie 🤝
Tucker has covered in 4/5 games this year including 4 straight. Holds a 16.1% target share behind Bowers as the clear 2nd option in the pass game. 4+ targets in 5/5 games.
Couldn’t ask for a better matchup vs the Bills secondary who allow the MOST receptions to WRs (15.2) - 2nd MOST targets to WRs (23.2) - and 4th MOST rec yards to WRs (187.4) per game. Multiple WRs have cleared this number in every game this year vs the Bills.
Couldn’t ask for a better route matchup either. The Bills rank 25th-31st against out - go - curl - and slant routes which combine for over 57% of Tuckers route usage.
The Raiders are 4.5 dogs in this one as well which makes me like it even more. Expecting a trailing/pass heavy script especially with Jeanty dealing with some lingering foot pain. Multiple WRs have covered this number every week this season vs the Bills. Perfect setting for Cousins to be looking Tuckers way often again. Give me the over. Playable up to 39.5 if you don’t have access to this number.
❤️ if your tailing!
📊 @PropsEdge