MLB Data Science Manager @ Penn Interactive | ex-@DrivelineBB | (Small sample ⟦size⟧)
Joined January 2018
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Alex Caravan retweeted
Interesting comparison: the two aging curves side by side.
First basemen peak at 27. Running backs peak at 23. Both dip at 28, and after that only the ageless wonders are still playing and producing at a high level
First basemen: Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto
Running backs: Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, Derrick Henry
Vlad signed at 26, A YEAR BEFORE his position's peak. The average big running back deal is signed at 26.7, almost FOUR YEARS AFTER the typical peak.
Not much else to say here other than I thought it was a fun comparison lol
Alex Caravan retweeted
Using delta method by @tangotiger, given most umpire start in their late 30s call/strike accuracy strictly decrease with age and decrease by ~0.75% from age 30 to age 50 and accelerate with decrease of ~0.75% from age 50 to 65 2/n
Alex Caravan retweeted
This seems quite relevant to some discourse I’ve seen about Cale Makar recently. Courtesy of @JhanHky
Alex Caravan retweeted
🐐
The Phillies today made several personnel moves in baseball operations.
ALT The Phillies today made several personnel moves in baseball operations. Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski made the announcement. Dan Aucoin was promoted to Assistant General Manager, Research and Information Luke Murton was promoted to the new role of Assistant General Manager, Hitting Ray Robles was promoted to Director, Minor League and International Operations Edwin Soto was promoted to the new role of Manager, Baseball Administration
Alex Caravan retweeted
As @BaseballFreak_9 posted himself, amazing to see the growth of @dan_aucoin13.
From #Rays video intern to @DrivelineBB front desk man, he convinced us we needed an R&D department and built it into the behemoth it has become today.
Congratulations to AGM Dan Aucoin!
The Phillies today made several personnel moves in baseball operations.
ALT The Phillies today made several personnel moves in baseball operations. Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski made the announcement. Dan Aucoin was promoted to Assistant General Manager, Research and Information Luke Murton was promoted to the new role of Assistant General Manager, Hitting Ray Robles was promoted to Director, Minor League and International Operations Edwin Soto was promoted to the new role of Manager, Baseball Administration
Alex Caravan retweeted
I watched 6,973 threes among 25 stretch bigs this summer working to quantify play-type usage, efficiency, movement types and developing two key metrics
All data comes from the video and tracking. Check out the thread below and the full read:
shaxnba.substack.com/p/i-wat…
What 6973 Three's Reveal About the NBA's Best Shooting Bigs 🏀☄️
(A thread)
In collaboration with @ShaxNBA
Alex Caravan retweeted
On July 30th Ballpark Pal published an article suggesting a new ball may have been introduced after the All-Star Break.
That suggestion has held up throughout August with lower exit velocities, shorter carry distances, and just 2.2 HRs / game.
The game sims have adjusted well to the new environment (for now). Here are the projected vs actuals so far in August:
Runs: 2,331 proj vs 2,307 actual (+1.0%)
Hits: 4,366 vs 4,339 (+0.6%)
HRs: 590 vs 590 (+0.0%)
2B/3Bs: 903 vs 851 (+6.1%)
1Bs: 2,873 vs 2,898 (-0.9%)
Ks: 4,426 vs 4,414 (+0.3%)
BBs: 1,721 vs 1,823 (-5.6%)
The specific assumption is that a new ball with lower COR and more drag is being used post-ASB
Lower COR is supported by a drop in exit velocity for fly balls between 25-35° (1st chart) as well as a drop in expected hrs per ball in play (2nd chart)
More drag is supported by a drop in HRs vs expected from contact (3rd chart), shorter distances vs expected (not shown) as well as MLB’s own drag dashboard on Baseball Savant.
Alex Caravan retweeted
I’ve hated most of the momentum maps this World Cup, but the England Argentina one is so good
Parking the bus after scoring at 55’ will never be forgiven
Alex Caravan retweeted
The hitters with the most home runs added by stadium and weather effects this year
📽️ Their most fortunate homers in the reply
Alex Caravan retweeted
🚨New metric release day from the Statcast factory at Baseball Savant
How much do pitchers miss the bat by? Is the bat over the ball or under? Tied up, or flailing? Is the batter early? Or late?
LEADERBOARD--> baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade…
Alex Caravan retweeted
Ten pitchers that have changed their arsenals the most nytimes.com/athletic/7182273…
Alex Caravan retweeted
MLB walk rate is 10% right now... up 1.6% from last year (obviously way too early, but if the season ended today, this would be 3rd highest all time!)
Is this related to ABS? Here's how AAA walk rate has changed since ABS was implemented in 2022
Alex Caravan retweeted
Hitting fly balls further than expected is actually a repeatable skill. A ton of variance goes into how far a batted ball goes (wind, spin, elevation, etc), so the posterior is wide. In 2025, Javier Sanoja led all of MLB averaging 10.6 feet further than expected on his fly balls.
Alex Caravan retweeted
WBCでの太田泰示のリリース特性に感銘を受けて、日本人投手分析の2本目のブログを書きました。
リリース高130cm・エクステンション238cm・球速154 km/h
体感球速158.5 km/h。同バケット平均は146.5 km/h。
全文はこちら→ unfilteredlabs.com/blog/%E5%…
Alex Caravan retweeted
As we head into the 2026 season, let's take a look at some of the players who played in MLB in 2025 that have seen the biggest jump in their max EV so far in Spring Training.
🧵⬇️...
Alex Caravan retweeted
InstaGraphs: RosterResource Now Has More Detailed Contract Info! blogs.fangraphs.com/instagra…
Alex Caravan retweeted
#SABRanalytics
Great presentation by the Statcast team who I am lucky enough to work with on a daily basis ( @dohyoungpark , @_dadler , Graham Goldbeck)
Alex Caravan retweeted
🚨 ABS Impact Analysis: Shadow Zone Edition
Mike Trout gets 17.3% of in-zone shadow pitches incorrectly called balls - the most in MLB. With ABS coming, that advantage disappears.
316 hitters analyzed. Average 8% incorrect ball calls on shadow zone strikes. The transition will be significant.
📊 Full breakdown 👇
(Graphs on individual posts for better visibility)
*Disclaimer* ABS is based off of height, this analysis was based on "rule-book" zone from 2025
Alex Caravan retweeted
Last year I set out to see what biomechanics patterns are present in pitchers with good command and presented my findings @sabr. This project fundamentally changed the way I view command and repeatability.
The long overdue blog is out! Check it out here: drivelinebaseball.com/2026/0…