๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (@Agricomp) header
๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (@Agricomp) profile picture

Prop Trader | IB | Former abcd's Merchant. แด›ส€แด€แด…ษชษดษข ษชษดแด แดสŸแด แด‡s แด€ sษชษขษดษชา“ษชแด„แด€ษดแด› ส€ษชsแด‹ แดา“ สŸแดss แด€ษดแด… ษชs ษดแดแด› sแดœษชแด›แด€ส™สŸแด‡ า“แดส€ แด€สŸสŸ ษชษดแด แด‡sแด›แดส€s ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐ŸŒฑ๐Ÿซ›๐Ÿ‚๐ŸŒฝโšก

Asuncion, Paraguay
Joined July 2013
Photo by ๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (@Agricomp)Photo by ๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (@Agricomp)Photo by ๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (@Agricomp)Photo by ๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (@Agricomp)Photo by ๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (@Agricomp)Photo by ๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (@Agricomp)Photo by ๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (@Agricomp)Photo by ๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (@Agricomp)Photo by ๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (@Agricomp)Photo by ๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (@Agricomp)
๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
To the soybean traders: How can you fundamentally model bean prices? Soybean prices have close to no relationship with the stock-to-use ratio. Excluding 2018/19 s2u explains price only to 16% - that's nothing. Brazil is even worse. US-Brazil export ratio is useless too (r2 0.01), same goes for China's s2u.
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A 1988 Chicago Trading Pit documentary accidentally described the exact reason 90 percent of modern retail traders will never stop until they blow up. The film was shot in the peak years of open outcry, back when trading meant shouting yourself hoarse in a physical pit, taking speech therapy at Schwab Rehabilitation Center, and sometimes ending up in the medic's chair with a busted lip from a fistfight over a trade. At 16:34 in the film above, one trader said this. "When I first started I heard stories of other traders making 50 or 100 thousand a day. I said if I made that kind of money I would quit. I would take the summer off. When I had my first five-figure day, ten thousand plus, I found myself in the pit the next day." He made his summer's worth of money in one session. He came back the next morning. Every retail trader today who says "if I just double my account I'll cash out" is that trader. Every day-trader who promised themselves they would quit after their first six-figure year is that trader. Every options gambler who tells their spouse "one more good week and I stop" is that trader. The 1988 documentary called it the game. The people who stayed in it called it being a gladiator. The paramedics on duty at the exchange called it a job. Modern brokers call it engagement. Every Robinhood push notification is designed to reproduce the pit floor without the paramedics. That single confession from a Chicago pit trader in 1988 has probably explained the last four decades of retail blowups better than every behavioral finance textbook combined. Retail traders build spreadsheets tracking P&L in real time because they cannot look away from the score. Options traders open the app on the toilet because the pit is now in their pocket. Prop shop hires get told the money is what matters when the actual driver is the same dopamine that trapped the 1988 gladiator. The full 19-minute documentary is above. Almost none of the viewers have actually asked themselves what number would make them walk. The framework is free. The willingness to actually name the number that ends the game before you get there is the entire edge.
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
*US STRIKES IRAN'S QESHM ISLAND: WSJ *WSJ CITES US OFFICIALS
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Democrats have surged to an ALL-TIME HIGH on Kalshi's Senate control prediction market... Traders give Democrats a 74% chance of taking control of the U.S. Senate after tomorrow's midterms: ๐Ÿ”ต Democrats: 74% ๐Ÿ”ด Republicans: 26% That's a staggering 48-point gap in market-implied probabilities. The chart shows a dramatic reversal, with Republican odds collapsing as Democrat odds climb sharply. Kalshi's market also displays a projected 52 Democrat seats to 46 Republican seats, which is 54-46 when accounting for Bernie Sanders and Angus King. Source: Kalshi / Writer: Samuel
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
๐Ÿ‘€
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
BREAKING: Democrats' odds of sweeping both chambers of Congress surge to a new high just 2 days before the 2026 midterm elections. 70% chance. ๐Ÿ”— polymarket.com/r/Election202โ€ฆ
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
Happy Halloween!
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
Soybeans have turned old highs into new lows all year long But hereโ€™s the catch We have continued to fail to hold the most recent prior high Instead weโ€™ve bounced off the high before it In June we failed to hold the March highs. Then bottomed at November highs In August we failed to hold the May highs. Then bottomed at the March highs Now weโ€™ve failed to hold the July highs Could we now bottom at the May highs? We have yet to turn the May highs into support The May highs are also 61.8% of the June lows. Another reason to make this a possible point of interest *** Get our daily grain analysis + alerts free ๐Ÿ‘‰ dailymarketminute.com/freetrโ€ฆ
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
๐Ÿšจ BIGGEST AG FUND OUTFLOWS SINCE JUNE! Funds dumped โˆ’233k contracts (โˆ’$6.6B). That's EIGHT straight weeks of selling ... and a ninth underway. ๐Ÿ“‰ Why? Favorable S.A. weather, weak BRL, hawkish Fed & U.S. midterm jitters. ๐Ÿ’” Still crowded: Sugar, Meal, Soybeans & Matif Corn. The bulls need to be fed. ๐ŸŒฝ๐ŸŒฑ๐Ÿฌ
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
Soja | 30 de outubro Com quase 90% da รกrea de soja semeada ainda em outubro, Mato Grosso mantรฉm uma perspectiva favorรกvel para a implantaรงรฃo do milho e do algodรฃo de segunda safra dentro da janela ideal. ๐Ÿ”— Confira o relatรณrio completo no site do IMEA.
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
#soybeans #corn #wheat #oatt Happy Friday, Happy Month End, and Happy Halloween!
๐Ÿค– Made with AI
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
There will be many macro fund casualties tomorrow from Brazil shitshow
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
Brazil's currency and stocks tumbled on Monday as investors bet that Luiz Inรกcio Lula da Silva's comeback election victory would compound fiscal worries for Latin America's biggest economy. ft.trib.al/pWHSD94
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Private exporters reported sales of 612,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during MY 2026/2027. ow.ly/6wu650ZZjlp
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
Private exporters reported sales of 470,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during MY 2026/2027. ow.ly/6eAv50ZXyEP
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
Permanece a tendรชncia das temperaturas diรกrias abaixo da mรฉdia nos prรณximos 10 dias em grande รกrea da Amรฉrica do Sul.
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CORN
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#soybeans #oatt Cargill KC was the last +100X. Now 0X. In a blink of an eye they're all gone. You snooze you looze.
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๐—”๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ retweeted
Accurate.
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