Husband & Father, 25 year Commodity Trader (poorly), Washington State Alum, Master Arborist, lover of hunting, fishing and all things food.
Omaha, NE
Joined February 2009
- Tweets47.6K
- Following1.6K
- Followers5.8K
- Likes121K
Instead of using AI to determine Ag fundamentals we should use it for predicitng USDA report data, would be much more profitable.
All of this whining about the USDA erased by a very sketch 48 hrs in Brazil. Welcome to commodity trading!
Chris Kleene retweeted
It is quite illogical by now to call for Brazil drought from Elnino.
This year 1-20 Oct precip vs last year actual.
And this year 21 Oct to 4 Nov forecast vs last year actual
Chris Kleene retweeted
We’re Doubling down on dumb.
ESPN is in deep trouble and seems to be going on tilt.
They’re drowning in their SEC and CFP deals.
Regular Season (Q1 FY26, Oct–Dec 2025) fell 22.7% last year.
The playoff quarter is getting worse(Jan–Mar margins went from 18% to 15% to 14% over three years.)
To make matters worse, CFB viewership is down a reported 11% so far this season.
They aren't taking the expanded CFP to market because everyone knows the market isn't there. Everyone is choking on their deals.
This change order kills conference title games and low value bowls, saving about $150M per year. Net spend rises about $200M, but cost per premium postseason game drops about 30%.
Moving the start of the playoffs to the first half of December allows it to fall within the busiest advertising flight of the year, but it also kills profitable games that were already there.
It’s worth speculating that the additional CFP spots for the SEC are a compromise for a yet unreported decrease in their regular season conference payouts.
But what’s maddening, is that despite all this, it probably won’t be a financial win for anyone… ESPN, SEC, or any other conference.
ESPN needs to find an additional $200M+ in revenue. If their ledger proves anything, it’s that viewership gains don’t proportionally result in ad revenue or carriage revenue gains. Again, that’s assuming that changes will actually result in net regular and CFP viewership gains, which seems like a long shot based on literally every college football fan's response so far.
TV Executives kidding themselves while convincing ADs and Conference Commissioners to sign off. What a literal unmitigated disaster.
Nice to see that Trump doesn’t care about livestock farmers yet again and that feed and livestock haven’t seen similar price increases and only row cropping are given the golden parachute.
Chris Kleene retweeted
🌽 El maíz americano no compite con París. Compite con los barcos que esperan turno en Brasil y en Argentina, y esa carrera la va perdiendo.
📌 Brasil: 5.361 mil t de maíz en cola de carga a 13 de octubre, frente a 4.647 el día 1 y 4.725 hace un año. Ya supera a la soja (4.692)
📌 Exportación de maíz de Brasil estimada para octubre: 6,41 millones de t, desde 5,34 la semana pasada
📌 Argentina: 1.853 mil t en cola, el doble que hace un año (924)
📌 Ucrania: cosecha al 13 %, con rendimientos tempranos de 5,9 t/ha frente a 5,4 hace un año. El USDA la tiene en 31,8 millones de t
La cola de carga es la lista de barcos que esperan turno en el puerto. No es una previsión: es lo que se va a embarcar en las próximas semanas. Con China comprando la soja en EE. UU., los puertos brasileños se llenan de maíz justo cuando el americano tiene que salir. Y en toda la curva de futuros el grano sudamericano sigue más barato. El programa de exportación que se da por bueno es de 3.300 millones de bushels (3.3 billion), con la cartera de ventas por detrás de la del año pasado y unas inspecciones que lo normal es que se frenen.
Ucrania añade otra capa. Si los rendimientos aguantan, su cosecha supera lo que cuenta el USDA. Pero su exportación de maíz se estima en 18-19 millones de t, frente a 22 el año pasado, y parte del grano se quedará en el campo: secarlo es caro y los silos están llenos de trigo, cebada y oleaginosas que no salen por el mar Negro. Más grano y menos salida dan un vendedor con prisa, que vende con descuento.
El Dec cerró en 480 3/4 (-2), con la volatilidad implícita en el 16,5 %. El mercado no espera movimiento.
Para entender los commodities hay que mirar la estructura, no el precio.
¿Cuánto tiene que abaratarse el Golfo para quitarle barcos a Brasil? 👇
No es una recomendación.
#Maiz #Brasil #Granos #SpreadGreg
No kidding because industry other than energy is not doing great
IMF WARNS AI BUBBLE BURST COULD HIT GLOBAL ECONOMY
The IMF warns that an AI investment bust could reduce global economic growth by up to 1.3 percentage points in 2028, according to a downside scenario, not its baseline forecast.
U.S. AI infrastructure spending could exceed $10 trillion through 2032, while Asian economies increasingly depend on AI-driven exports.
The key risk: If AI profits and productivity fail to meet expectations, falling investment could trigger a global stock selloff and economic slowdown.
