
Prop Trader | IB | Former abcd's Merchant. แดสแดแด ษชษดษข ษชษดแด แดสแด แดs แด sษชษขษดษชาษชแดแดษดแด สษชsแด แดา สแดss แดษดแด ษชs ษดแดแด sแดษชแดแดสสแด าแดส แดสส ษชษดแด แดsแดแดสs ๐๐ฑ๐ซ๐๐ฝโก
Asuncion, Paraguay
Joined July 2013
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Pinned Tweet
10.08.2023
My son got married today โค๏ธ โ at Presidente Hayes, Paraguay
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To the soybean traders:
How can you fundamentally model bean prices?
Soybean prices have close to no relationship with the stock-to-use ratio.
Excluding 2018/19 s2u explains price only to 16% - that's nothing.
Brazil is even worse. US-Brazil export ratio is useless too (r2 0.01), same goes for China's s2u.
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A 1988 Chicago Trading Pit documentary accidentally described the exact reason 90 percent of modern retail traders will never stop until they blow up.
The film was shot in the peak years of open outcry, back when trading meant shouting yourself hoarse in a physical pit, taking speech therapy at Schwab Rehabilitation Center, and sometimes ending up in the medic's chair with a busted lip from a fistfight over a trade.
At 16:34 in the film above, one trader said this.
"When I first started I heard stories of other traders making 50 or 100 thousand a day. I said if I made that kind of money I would quit. I would take the summer off. When I had my first five-figure day, ten thousand plus, I found myself in the pit the next day."
He made his summer's worth of money in one session. He came back the next morning.
Every retail trader today who says "if I just double my account I'll cash out" is that trader. Every day-trader who promised themselves they would quit after their first six-figure year is that trader. Every options gambler who tells their spouse "one more good week and I stop" is that trader.
The 1988 documentary called it the game. The people who stayed in it called it being a gladiator. The paramedics on duty at the exchange called it a job.
Modern brokers call it engagement. Every Robinhood push notification is designed to reproduce the pit floor without the paramedics.
That single confession from a Chicago pit trader in 1988 has probably explained the last four decades of retail blowups better than every behavioral finance textbook combined.
Retail traders build spreadsheets tracking P&L in real time because they cannot look away from the score. Options traders open the app on the toilet because the pit is now in their pocket. Prop shop hires get told the money is what matters when the actual driver is the same dopamine that trapped the 1988 gladiator.
The full 19-minute documentary is above. Almost none of the viewers have actually asked themselves what number would make them walk.
The framework is free. The willingness to actually name the number that ends the game before you get there is the entire edge.
Nov 2026 wasde trade estimates #oatt
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*US STRIKES IRAN'S QESHM ISLAND: WSJ
*WSJ CITES US OFFICIALS
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๐จ๐บ๐ธ Democrats have surged to an ALL-TIME HIGH on Kalshi's Senate control prediction market...
Traders give Democrats a 74% chance of taking control of the U.S. Senate after tomorrow's midterms:
๐ต Democrats: 74%
๐ด Republicans: 26%
That's a staggering 48-point gap in market-implied probabilities.
The chart shows a dramatic reversal, with Republican odds collapsing as Democrat odds climb sharply.
Kalshi's market also displays a projected 52 Democrat seats to 46 Republican seats, which is 54-46 when accounting for Bernie Sanders and Angus King.
Source: Kalshi / Writer: Samuel
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BREAKING: Democrats' odds of sweeping both chambers of Congress surge to a new high just 2 days before the 2026 midterm elections.
70% chance.
๐ polymarket.com/r/Election202โฆ
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Soybeans have turned old highs into new lows all year long
But hereโs the catch
We have continued to fail to hold the most recent prior high
Instead weโve bounced off the high before it
In June we failed to hold the March highs. Then bottomed at November highs
In August we failed to hold the May highs. Then bottomed at the March highs
Now weโve failed to hold the July highs
Could we now bottom at the May highs?
We have yet to turn the May highs into support
The May highs are also 61.8% of the June lows. Another reason to make this a possible point of interest
***
Get our daily grain analysis + alerts free
๐ dailymarketminute.com/freetrโฆ
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๐จ BIGGEST AG FUND OUTFLOWS SINCE JUNE!
Funds dumped โ233k contracts (โ$6.6B).
That's EIGHT straight weeks of selling ... and a ninth underway. ๐
Why? Favorable S.A. weather, weak BRL, hawkish Fed & U.S. midterm jitters. ๐
Still crowded: Sugar, Meal, Soybeans & Matif Corn.
The bulls need to be fed. ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฌ
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Soja | 30 de outubro
Com quase 90% da รกrea de soja semeada ainda em outubro, Mato Grosso mantรฉm uma perspectiva favorรกvel para a implantaรงรฃo do milho e do algodรฃo de segunda safra dentro da janela ideal.
๐ Confira o relatรณrio completo no site do IMEA.
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๐ค Made with AI
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Brazil's currency and stocks tumbled on Monday as investors bet that Luiz Inรกcio Lula da Silva's comeback election victory would compound fiscal worries for Latin America's biggest economy. ft.trib.al/pWHSD94
I would 100% agree with you buddy if we were still in the pit years, but unfortunately, that has changed. #oatt #fuckingalgos
Grain futures markets are for price discovery not to serve your personal agenda or opinion. They are not rigged. For every buyer there is a seller and vice versa. Its magnificent really. End users buy, producers sell, speculators speculate.
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