A global Security Risk Management Agency with a focus on geopolitical risk intelligence, security information services & strategic risk advisory.
Horn of Africa (HOA)
Joined June 2016
- Tweets2.8K
- Following929
- Followers3.3K
- Likes8.5K
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
Nature abhors vacuum; when a vacuum is created, the surrounding matter moves to occupy the space.
Uganda & Ethiopia withdrawal without a named or planned successor invites occupation of vacated positions by Al-Shabaab or local militias.
All eyes on Lower Shabelle, Bay and Gedo, it here that the vacuum will be tested first.
@ASCIsecure October Monthly Security Risk & Threat assessment report coming up Shortly on armisticesecure.com
Ugandan Troops Begin Withdrawal from Key Military Bases in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle Region
Ugandan troops have reportedly begun withdrawing from forward operating bases (FOBs) in Barawe and Shalanbood, in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region, as part of a broader military withdrawal.
According to security sources cited by baidoa online , the withdrawing forces are expected to regroup at Number 60 in Lower Shabelle by November 13, before proceeding to Mogadishu and eventually returning to Uganda.
Meanwhile, some Ugandan military convoys have already been spotted moving through the streets of Mogadishu, indicating that troop movements are underway.
The withdrawal raises questions about future security arrangements in Lower Shabelle, particularly in areas facing persistent threats from Al-Shabaab militants.
#Somalia #Uganda #AUSSOM #LowerShabelle #Mogadishu
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
Kenya: The Department of State increased its Travel Advisory for Kenya from Level 2 (Exercise Increased Caution) to Level 3 (Reconsider Travel). American travelers can review the entire Travel Advisory at travel.state.gov/en/internat…
ALT Travel Advisory Level 3 - Reconsider Travel - Kenya. travel.state.gov/destination
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
What do alliances look like around the conflict in #Ethiopia?
Egyptian support for groups in Ethiopia is difficult to verify, but analysts have pointed to possible ties between Egypt, Eritrea, and Ethiopian opposition groups.
In this episode, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh, Bron Mills, and Senior Analyst Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru examine the alliances, external support, and regional interests reshaping Ethiopia’s conflict landscape.
🔗linktr.ee/ConflictsOfInteres…
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
#Ethiopia Updated information about reported attacks on military installations and large gatherings ow.ly/qtMM50ZTC0w
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
INCIDENT UPDATE
Reference: ASCI-KE-20260819-SAMBURU-HELICOPTER-CRASH
Incident Level: CRITICAL (Level 4) – Fatal helicopter crash; all occupants deceased
UPDATE SUMMARY
The Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA) has officially confirmed a fatal helicopter accident at Mt. Ololokwe, Samburu County.
All seven occupants on board were killed.
Aircraft details:
Type: Eurocopter EC130 B4
Registration: 5Y-GYM
Approximate time of accident: 09:13 hrs local time
The aircraft was reported as operating from the Loisaba area. A subsequent police account describe the light helicopter (locally referred to as “Lady Lorry”) as flying between Soyian/Suiyan (Laikipia) and Loisaba Conservancy when it crashed.
CONFIRMED CASUALTIES
All seven persons on board died in the crash:
Josh Outran (Pilot)
Roger Duarte
Adam Navaty
Stephen Vasconquez
Henry Parra
Michael Contugi
Suian Suarez (female)
CURRENT STATUS
Official confirmation issued by KCAA.
Police and emergency services responded to the remote crash site at the foot of Mt. Ololokwe.
Investigation into the cause of the accident is expected.
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
The moment saw this photo of Sifuna and his crew disembarking from this Cessna 208B Grand Caravan Reg. No. 5Y-LJM at Ithookwe Airstrip in Kitui a few days ago; it sent chills down my spine. It has not left my mind since.
A day later, I went back to our Armistice Security Consult Int. (armisticesecure.com) database on aviation incidents covering the sub-Saharan region, and I got a shocker that consumed me.
Over the last 6 years in our countries of coverage, we have documented over 20 incidents involving Cessna light crafts in the region: Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, DRC, UG, TZ and Mozambique.
Just a snippet of our aviation incidents database in Kenya;
2020
1. Sep 11 – Cessna 208B (5Y-CDH), Maji Moto – landing crash, 3 aboard, all survived.
2021
2. Mar 20 – Cessna 208B (5Y-JKN), Marsabit – CFIT into Kofia Mbaya Hill, 2 crew killed.
3. Jul 12 – DHC-2 Beaver (5Y- BLC), Naivasha, Crash, 2 crew killed.
2022
4. Feb 3 – Cessna 210J Centurion (5Y-CFT), Tatu City, Kiambu, crash landing near a school.
5. Mar 7 – Cessna 152N (5Y-BWM), Nyaribo Airstrip, Nyeri, student solo training crash.
2023
6. Sep 1 – Cessna 172 Skyhawk (5Y-CIU), Guara Primary School, Kieni East, training crash landing.
7. Dec 17 – Cessna 208B (5Y-GOK), Kiunga Airstrip, Lamu, struck power lines on takeoff, caught fire; all 10 aboard (incl. police officers) survived, injuries reported.
2024
8. Mar 5 – Cessna 172M (5Y-NNJ), Nairobi National Park, mid-air collision with a Safarilink Dash 8; both aboard the Cessna killed.
9. Sep 16 – Cessna 208B (5Y-ZBW), Lichota/Migori Airstrip, takeoff accident.
2025
10. Jan 10 – Cessna 172N (5Y-CDC), Malindi–Mombasa highway, Kilifi, crashed onto the road; 3 killed on the ground.
11. Jan 30 – Cessna 185F Skywagon (5Y-BVL), Kedong Ranch, Naivasha.
12. Aug 7 –Cessna Citation XLS (5Y-FDM), Mwihoko, Kiambu, AMREF air ambulance jet crashed shortly after takeoff; 4 crew/medics + 2 on the ground killed (6 total). Note: this is a business-jet Cessna, not a piston/turboprop light aircraft.
13. Oct 28 – Cessna 208B Grand Caravan (5Y-CCA), near Kwale, Mombasa Air Safari flight to Maasai Mara crashed shortly after takeoff; all 11 aboard killed (8 Hungarians, 2 Germans, 1 Kenyan crew).
Then I turned to other countries; something caught my eye, not in Kenya but in DRC; Kenyan registered Cessna 208B Grand Caravan, the same that landed Sifuna and crew at Ithookwe Airstrip;
2025
Jul 27 – 5Y-LJM Cessna 208B Grand Caravan, Bunia, DR Congo, (Runway Excursion) 2 POB - minor Injuries, sustained substantial damage to the outer left wing and a dislodged, bent nose landing gear; initial findings point towards mechanical failure.
At @ASCIsecure, we give security risk advisory to our clients. As an analyst, I have a lot I could tell this Sifuna crew as an advisory, but I leave this to them to assess the risk and advise themselves.
Ends.
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
Turns out Al-Shabaab’s main source of weapons is Somalia’s own troops fleeing their bases and leaving behind military equipment.
This video shows a recently captured military base near Teedan village in Somalia 🇸🇴 that was overrun by the group.
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY, both Red Sea chokepoints are closed simultaneously.
Hormuz blocked since February 28. Bab al-Mandeb embargoed July 21. The corridor that carries a quarter of the world's oil and gas supply has never been squeezed from both ends at once, until now.
Saudi Arabia built its entire Hormuz bypass around the Red Sea. 70% of its exports rerouted to Yanbu. That bypass now runs directly through the embargo. There is no workaround for the workaround.
25% of global oil and gas supply at risk. 12% of global trade blocked. Saudi loadings already down 36%.
And then there is Port Sudan. 180 miles north of the embargo line. 33.7 million people. One port. 80% of Sudan's wheat imported through a corridor that has just been closed at both ends simultaneously.
The world has never seen this before. The markets have never priced this before. The humanitarian system has no contingency for this.
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
Somalia’s special forces are continuing counterterrorism operations against militant groups, particularly in the Lower Juba region.
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
SOG with the help of the KDF special operations brigade wiped out 11 terrorists among the 30 who had regrouped in the makeshift camp near the Kenya-Somalia border in Mandera.
7 more were seriously injured, with 2 critical. The rest ran towards Somalia.
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
Incident Alert ⚠️
Traffic disruptions along Mombasa rd, Signature Mall after multiple RTA incidents reported.
Stafe Alert in this rainy weather and observe lane discipline.
@ASCIsecure @Billionair1w @ntsa_kenya @KeNHAKenya
Road safety starts with respect. Respect the rules, speed limit, and other road users — whether they’re driving, cycling, or walking. Buckle up, ditch distractions, and never drink & drive. Drive like everyone on the road is your family.
#RoadSafety #fikasalama @ntsa_kenya
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
Don't go,drive anywhere even in your locality without checking matters safety on socials, police , Google maps,waze etc. This is Kenya after 2022 @CFCJoes @ASCIsecure @SecurityArenaKE @SecurexEA @RSAIKenya
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
Hormuz traffic data signals
#MarineTraffic data show 38 confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of #Hormuz zone on 2 July, a 10% day on day decline. Commercial vessels continued to account for most movements, including 14 laden cargo transits led by crude, CPP and dry bulk, alongside LPG and DPP cargoes. Iranian flagged activity rose sharply to 11 crossings from two the previous day, while nine sanctioned crossings were also observed. Route selection shifted towards the Iranian and Dark or Unknown corridors, as Omani route use weakened.
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
This RSF militiamen stopped to film a clip only for an Army drone to take out the technical he was posing in front of. The Sudanese Army has preempted the RSF’s long planned offensive in Kordufan and is striking hard across 3 distinct fronts.
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
🚨 BREAKING NEWS 🚨
Senior driver Mzee Malalo has reportedly been brutally assaulted by South Sudanese soldiers along the Juba–Nesitu Road this evening.
He has been rushed to Juba in critical condition.
How long will this continue? This must stop. @ngorminister @maalmaker
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
THIEF CAPTURED 🚨
A suspected thief has been captured on camera long the Mai Mahiu Escarpment stealing a fire extinguisher from a moving truck.
@DCI_Kenya and @NPSOfficial_KE this gang should be contained ASAP. @motoristsoffice @cbs_ke @princegershom_ @RSAIKenya @roadsensekenya
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
Kenya deported Somalia Deputy Prime Minister and former acting President of South West State Jibril Abdirashid.
Kenyan authorities accused him of being in possession of illegally acquired Kenyan documents.
Equally, the Deputy Prime Minister was linked to efforts to destablise border towns close to the kenyan border. He has airlifted arms into one of the town near the kenyan border and from JKIA was proceeding to the said town to arm clan militia and disturb the current peace, tranquility and administration in the border town with serious security consequences on the Kenyan side.
The Deputy Prime Minister was also linked to recent armed conflict in Baidoa town where civilians were killed and hundreds of families displaced.
Efforts by Kenyan politicians to intervene did not succeed.
Jibril Abdirashid renewed his Passport which screenshots will be shared later.
#ActionCountersTerrorism
Armistice Security Consult International® retweeted
Three people have died and several seriously injured in an accident that happened earlier today.
The accident which happened along the Tharaka-Meru highway in Tharaka Nithi County, involved a 10-seater matatu from Unique Shuttle Sacco and a saloon car.
The impact left a gross image, showing clearly that the cars were travelling at high speeds.
#RoadSafetySunday