ADHD Capital LLC ™

Do people view $GOOG tokens processed by 1P model API's as a good proxy for the growth trend in aggregate AI token consumption? I read that its ~10-15% of aggregate consumption (1/6 of the mkt, some stuff captured that might not fit though). GOOG says it's processing 32B tokens/min. +400% y/y, insane. This is up from 19B token/min in May at I/O, which is itself a ~350% annualized growth rate over 5 months. In May at I/O, they flagged 700% y/y growth. So it's a slowing rate of exponential growth. Why does this matter? i think we're adding, at a minimum, 4x token capacity per year for the next two years at least (depending on rate of token throughput improvement on new chip rollout, LLM optimization etc, infra optimziation - this 4x could easily be higher). If GOOG's token demand growth is past the steepest part of its S-curve (for now) as we enter the steepest part of the supply side S-curve (on a token capacity standpoint), then i find it hard to believe we avoid a glut. There's no index that can forecast this accurately. no one really knows, i don't think there's a good signal out there that answers this all important quesiton. Feels potentially dumb arguing with 400% y/y token demand growth, but one side of the S/D equation is seeing its growth rate accelerate while the other side is decelerating (albeit to a still impressive rate)