Say no to multiple arbitrage. https://xitter.cf/t.co/PKZxXdYUJp

Joined May 2011
Choose compute Choose HBM. Choose CoWoS. Choose X-ray metrology. Choose a fucking big SiC fab. Choose substrates, T-glass substrates. Choose PCBs. Choose a japanese bottleneck and wondering who the fuck you are on a Sunday morning reading about tungsten drills. Choose returns.
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I have 11.5% of my pf in European AI plays, P&L today is 130bps of losses. I see, we might not be curing cancer next year?
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I am not buying more, but many homebuilders refuse to make new lows even after that print
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So the AI build out is going to crowd out housing and the real economy but at the same time AI is so over
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Rodrigo Benedetti retweeted
Many $QURE bulls are posting this but has anyone looked at what it shows? None of the 4 comparisons were statistically significant (even without correcting for multiple comparisons which would require a much lower p value). Look at the error bars on those charts...
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It's all taken from the Elon/Trump playbook. 'merica! Need your moneys please
"Think of it as the opposite of HSBC. They were banking the cartels, desperately trying to avoid government interventions that would make that clear to the public markets." @PalmerLuckey explains how Erebor is different from every other bank: "Put Erebor at the other end of that spectrum." "There are a lot of banks that — whether they are good or bad people is irrelevant — you might have good people who nonetheless are very beholden to European markets, Chinese markets, other foreign markets that they need to keep happy. Either because they want to keep them happy to make money, or because they don't want their executives in those jurisdictions to get arrested." "Erebor is taking a very different approach. We're an American company, we're an American bank, that supports American companies, and we will comply with US law, but we will not comply with spurious rulings from people who have no real jurisdiction or authority over us. And you'll have a very hard time finding a bank that takes that position. I'm not aware of any other than us."
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These exchanges are reminiscent of 2021
Remarkable alpha: dismiss the study’s lead scientist’s warnings about small N and mean reversion a week before the data, add more, watch your pet stock crater 60%, then ridicule the guy who traded the pump while you bagheld the dump. 🤡 Watch the cycle repeat if it's approved.
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There's the hero made by the bubble and the critical thinker. Some people really have only one neuronal path working at the same time, and they can't hold opposing views at the same time. As I've grown older, I think being able to do it is a small superpower.
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These exchanges are reminiscent of 2021
Remarkable alpha: dismiss the study’s lead scientist’s warnings about small N and mean reversion a week before the data, add more, watch your pet stock crater 60%, then ridicule the guy who traded the pump while you bagheld the dump. 🤡 Watch the cycle repeat if it's approved.
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Oil up 3% and bonds green... A baggie can dream
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The chart of the Canadian banks (TD for example) is absolutely horrible. Highest valuation is many years too. Idk why I shorted those and bought housebuilders, in which world do I win?
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Down when the market goes down, flat when the market goes up... The definition of a shitty pf
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La bondad es que los jueces son "buenos e independientes"? Esto solo ocurre porque el nombramiento es vitalicio, jueces del SCOTUS no tienen que ganarse ninguna jubilación. Engament sin alpha
Las bondades del diseño institucional americano, muy interesante: "Donald Trump helped create the most conservative Supreme Court in generations by adding three justices to the bench during his first presidency. Now, as the court begins its new term on Monday, he appears to have buyer’s remorse. In recent months, Trump’s nominees — Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett — have given deciding votes in rulings blocking the president’s attempts to limit mail-in voting, birthright citizenship and the independence of the Federal Reserve. Before that, the court struck down his marquee tariffs policy, with majority votes from two of his appointees"
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I see we are having a high quality rally with blue chips like SPCX MRNA and TWST leading
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Bacteria or tankers?
ESA Sentinel-2 satellite imagery of the Gulf of Oman captured nineteen ship-to-ship (STS) transfers on 2026-10-04. Of these, eleven involved crude oil, two involved LNG, and the remainder involved refined products such as fuel oil and diesel. #OOTT #IranWar #Tankers
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I just woke up at 4:30 to get a train (30 mins delay) to Milano after my flight back to Spain got cancelled yesterday and I saw the Euro was crashing 70bps. Feels on point.
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Buying EUR here for a cheeky trade
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Rodrigo Benedetti retweeted
Working with other people has saved me so much time and energy. Since the start of 2025. Specific examples: Rodrigo made me a system in early 2025 that sped up my work a lot. It translates and summarizes filings for my portfolio companies. This has been improved into a system that now saves me 75%+ time compared to manually going through filings. Mike made a system in 2026 that tracks fund and PM level risk. It took my old, crude version and made it a bit more accurate. More important than accuracy, this saved me a lot of time - not just for all of our PMs, but even for my own portfolio. Mike also automated the fund's tax position estimate. Sam added a whole new risk system, adding another layer of protection we didn't even have before. Sam also filters through all PM candidates, passing on just the very top couple of percent of leads to me. In comparison, before I used to have to understand a lot of track records myself. Luis handles most all interactions with our LPs. He also handles all of the accounting and administrator brain damage. And finally, Drew, Jesus, Kyle and Andrew make all of the above possible, and more. So far it's safe to say that what we've built has saved me a LOT of time, rather than being a distraction - something I am focusing on a lot.
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Increíble de ver a los “expertos” en solventar la emergencia de vivienda que vive España! En cada televisión! @telediario_tve @A3Noticias @tele5_noticias @noticias_cuatro La realidad es que tenemos a políticos que intentan crear decretos y soluciones cuando no tienen la preparación ni el conocimiento para idear una solución real al problema que vivimos. España no tiene un problema de falta de decretos. Tiene un problema de falta de viviendas. Y mientras el Gobierno siga confundiendo anunciar medidas con resolver problemas, seguiremos pagando las consecuencias de su inacción. Subvencionar la demanda sin aumentar la oferta presiona los precios. Regular cada vez más un mercado sin construir vivienda nueva no elimina la escasez: la administra. Castigar fiscalmente una modalidad de alquiler puede cambiar incentivos, pero tampoco pone un solo ladrillo. El Gobierno puede aprobar todas las medidas que quiera y venderlas como grandes soluciones. Puede encadenar decretos, anuncios y campañas de propaganda. Pero hay una pregunta que desmonta cualquier discurso: ¿Cuántas viviendas nuevas crea todo esto? Porque la vivienda no se abarata repartiendo la escasez. Se abarata acabando con ella. España necesita construir. Mucho. Más suelo disponible. Licencias en meses, no en años. Más densidad donde sea posible. Seguridad jurídica. Muchísima más vivienda pública y también privada. Pero el Gobierno no está haciendo lo necesario. Prefiere intervenir sobre las pocas viviendas que existen antes que crear las condiciones para que haya muchas más. Prefiere presentar parches como soluciones y cargar sobre propietarios, promotores y ciudadanos el coste de su fracaso. Lo demás puede servir para redistribuir, proteger a determinados colectivos o cambiar incentivos. Pero no confundamos eso con solucionar el problema de fondo. No se arregla una falta de vivienda repartiendo mejor las pocas casas que existen. Se arregla haciendo que existan muchas más. Menos propaganda. Menos parches. Menos obsesión por intervenir sobre el mismo piso. Más oferta. Más construcción. Más casas.
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What an absurd bubble. If AI capex doesn't pay off the indexes are in for a lost 5 years
Moderna to join Nasdaq 100, replacing Warner Bros Discovery Moderna Inc. will join the Nasdaq-100 Index on October 9, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery. The announcement was made by Nasdaq on Thursday. This marks a significant inclusion for the biotechnology company in one of the major US stock indices. piqmarkets.com/story/moderna…
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Value investors squirting
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