
Exploring the world of #programmatic advertising
Joined November 2022
- Tweets3.4K
- Following170
- Followers2.4K
- Likes13K
TTD OpenPath vs non-OpenPath. What actually performs better?
The Programmatic 101 newsletter is back (programmatic101.beehiiv.com/…), and the first issue just went out. I wanted an actual answer so I finally sat down and looked properly...👇
🤖 Made with AI
If TTD ads are blocked in Safari, that's a big deal for every buyer running on it. And we're learning about it from AdExchanger, not from TTD. Not a great look.
TTD ads blocked entirely in Safari. @adexchanger with the scoop and detailed breakdown: adexchanger.com/platforms/ap…
Is OpenPath actually cheaper, or is it just a discount on worse inventory? I've been checking that against real data instead of taking either side's word for it, and depending which number you look at, you get two completely different answers.
On price, OpenPath is doing a genuinely good job. Across 90 days of data, OpenPath impressions ran about 43% cheaper than the same inventory bought through named SSPs, and when I checked the actual attention environment those impressions land in, ad refresh rate, ad density, viewability, competing ads in view, it came back basically identical to what I'm paying a real premium for elsewhere. That reads less like a junk-inventory discount and more like the market correcting a price that named-SSP supply may have been charging without the environment to back it up.
Then the platform numbers tell a different story. CPA ran about 31% higher on OpenPath and ROAS came in about 28% lower, and it holds up even above the fold and on desktop, the exact segments where OpenPath should look most like named-SSP supply if this were just a placement mix issue.
So is the price win real and the performance gap the actual cost of getting it, or is something else entirely eating the difference?
I'd rather stay careful than confident here. These are last touch, post view attributed conversions, which means the model credits whichever impression happened to sit closest to the conversion and doesn't prove that impression caused anything, so if OpenPath impressions tend to land earlier in someone's path, or the attribution model is just structurally less generous to that supply route, a real chunk of that CPA gap could be measurement rather than performance. I don't think that's the whole story though, the gap survives across two separate 90-day windows and holds even in segments where placement shouldn't matter, but I'm not calling it solved until somebody actually runs an incrementality test on it.
So here's what I'd actually do with this. Don't exclude OpenPath publishers on the assumption they're low quality, the attention data doesn't support that at all, and you're probably cutting a fairly priced route for a reason that isn't true. Do stop trusting a blended CPA or ROAS number if a meaningful share of your spend runs through OpenPath, break it out before you conclude anything from it.
Full breakdown is in the first issue of Programmatic 101 on behiiv (link in my profile bio and on the thumbnail), the fold and device cuts that rule out placement mix, all four attention metrics and what they actually showed, and the attribution caveat in more detail than I could fit here.
🤖 Made with AI
Vlad Chubakov (@Programmatic 101) retweeted
Can Transaction ID become the missing piece for cleaner CTV supply paths? Ad Tech Explained explores how it helps DSPs identify duplicate inventory, improve supply path optimization, and why challenges like metadata enrichment and inventory sharing are slowing broader adoption.
The CPM is 43% cheaper on average. Attention quality held up too, which honestly surprised me. And the performance data surprised me even more, in a direction I wasn't expecting going in.
In the first issue I break down:
- Why the CPM gap holds up and where it's biggest
- What the attention data actually showed, and why it wasn't what I expected
- The CPA and ROAS numbers, and a possible explanation for why they might not mean what they look like
- What I'd personally do differently for bottom-of-funnel campaigns until someone runs a real incrementality test
LINK - programmatic101.beehiiv.com/…
The thing is that AI slop can have pretty strong metrics (viewability, ad density, etc.), which makes it harder to detect. Legacy verification tools are also not very good at identifying it.
NEWS: AI slop is fooling the ad verification tools built to catch it. AI sites are beating real publishers on the metrics advertisers trust and now make up to 2.4% of open web programmatic spend, with TAG's CEO saying billions of dollars could be at stake. adweek.it/4pFOomc
definitely a good move in the right direction, but it still doesn’t give you much control over other properties. The algorithm still decides what percentage of the budget is allocated between Search, YouTube, Gmail, and so on
Vlad Chubakov (@Programmatic 101) retweeted
Incredible read from BCG on what is necessary to enable agentic marketing.
"Most organizations’ measurement capabilities focus on campaign metrics, while a few have progressed to incrementality testing. Eventually, the best will adopt agentic measurement. The progression yields better tools and more data, but it also entails a fundamental shift in the questions that measurement seeks to answer."
More in 🧵
Not a lot of people talking about this. Really great work by Haus team.
The finding that stuck with me: noisy experiments left teams worse off than doing nothing 38% of the time.
We simulated a year of marketing decisions 36 million times, and we are now sharing everything we found.
I thought about not posting this on a Saturday but no need to pretend that we aren't thinking about causal inference 7 days a week over here at Haus...
First, why do we invest so much in our estimators and improving experiment precision at Haus?
Because an experiment doesn't create value just because it produces a lift estimate. It creates value when that estimate leads to a better decision – scale the channel, pull back, hold, retest. If the signal behind those decisions is noisy, doing more of them doesn't average you toward the truth, it means you make more wrong turns, faster.
We've watched this play out anecdotally for years. But anecdotes aren't numbers. So Patrick Hillery built a simulation that modeled a full year of experiment-driven budget decisions, varying only the two levers a team actually controls: how precise their measurement is, and how often they test.
What we found:
- Acting on noisy results left the business worse off than doing nothing 38% of the time, more than twice as often as the precise approaches.
- You can't test your way out of noisy signals with higher testing volume. Brands running noisy experiments finished ahead no more often at 15 tests a year than at 6.
- A strong experimentation program is worth double digits. The precise, high-cadence approach delivered a 13.2% average revenue lift, more than double the noisy approach's payoff (5.6%) at the same cadence and limit.
- A tight confidence interval can be manufactured. Some methods look precise by hand-picking a few well-matched markets, but the result only holds for those markets. In these cases, precise results aren’t necessarily accurate ones.
I'm linking in thread the full article, methodology walkthrough and companion spreadsheet we are calling Monte Carlo, and we are making it available to all.
Vlad Chubakov (@Programmatic 101) retweeted
Host @aripap and co-host @ericfranchi welcome @oliviaakory, Chief Marketing Strategy Officer at Haus, to discuss incrementality, AppLovin, AI-driven media buying, Google, OpenAI, and the future of ad measurement.
youtu.be/scf7yqDokWE
Vlad Chubakov (@Programmatic 101) retweeted
For reasons I will not explain I asked ChatGPT to create a "mime explaining retargeting"
❓what's your experience with ChatGPT ads? Especially compared to search?
From what I see, so far it looks like a good consideration channel, but definitely not google search replacement/direct competitor.
really interesting read by @Adweek & @KendraEBarnett
especially "standard IP targeting accuracy is so poor that just 23% of residential IP addresses reached their intended geographic target, per the study. Meanwhile, CTV identifiers, which, like mobile ad IDs are device-level, were 24% more consistent over time than IP addresses"
Vlad Chubakov (@Programmatic 101) retweeted
With X cool again, there’s probably no better time to say I launched a @Substack. (Inspired by awesome writers/creators/experts like @Emily_Sundberg, @milkkarten, @caseymlewis.)
Have no idea what I’m doing but my first post is about Taylor Swift.
Link below! 👇
Vlad Chubakov (@Programmatic 101) retweeted
Can people follow me here. I need friends that work in AdTech.




















