
Founder of Laveer Capital Management. Active #investor. Author.
Valparaiso, IN
Joined June 2015
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Dudley K Beyler retweeted
The biggest lesson of any capex cycle is to not take equity risk for a fixed rate of return. That's what the neocloud problem is.
Lending to SpaceX with Starlink-type revenues or strong offtakes and you get a bond, but lending to a borrower whose only asset is GPUs and only customer is another AI company is just equity with a coupon cap.
Credit is pricing that split. Apollo is telling you that good GPU financing can get done at +200/+250 over, and when Volta tried to raise $5 billion for a Norway data center earlier this month, investors balked and pushed the rate to 11%+.
Slok's point on if compute costs more to produce than users get out of it, the collateral is worth less every quarter tells you everything you need to know and that's all before we talk about the equity of the business.
Elon is right that the debt markets haven't been receptive. It is pretty clear that the market is starting to price in that equity risk to the space.
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
As someone with a portfolio of energized land assets here is what I am seeing:
1. Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. Some are definitely better than others however.
2. Hyperscalers are intractable, bureaucratic organizations that take 3 months to do an NDA and want 18mo escrow periods. We built our portfolio by competing against these terms because of our speed and simplicity. The more future assets orgs like ours win, the bigger the problem for the hyperscalers downstream (see 3).
3. There are delays in the existing pipeline that will catch people off guard in 2027. Hyperacalers will (obviously) react by focusing on their own internal compute needs over any third party. If the third party is a model company, they will tell them to go through their model router where they will also take a non-trivial vig. Them telling Ant they have no compute for them (rumored in Ant’s S-1) if true is a huge tell that this is already happening.
All of this is to say that it does look like there will be a lot of partially stranded compute and compute sitting in inventory in 2027 than is currently forecasted. This is bought and paid for but effectively underearning (below total cost of capital) or collecting dust. We see this as true for everyone - model companies, hyperscalers, neoclouds except ONE (you can guess which one).
This dislocation will benefit two kinds of orgs: the non-bureaucratic big scalers who can build industrial scale quickly and the nimble, well capitalized players feeding them.
2027 will be a turbulent year because it will clear out a bunch of wrong/bad bets. It will also be a consolidation year for a few.
Replying to @Yuchenj_UW
I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
Instead of increasing shareholder value today I decided to enjoy a little fall golf
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
The first version of anything you build will be a little embarrassing.
Ship it anyway.
You learn more from one real person using it than from ten more weeks of polishing in private.
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
An LA hospitality group runs 25 bars, many of them right by Dodger Stadium. Every extra playoff game means packed bars. An early exit means lost revenue they were counting on.
So they hedged it. They put $60,000 on Kalshi on the Dodgers *not* making the World Series.
The Dodgers lost the NLCS to the Brewers. The position returned nearly 2x, helping cover the playoff business that *never* came.
A Columbia law professor told Fortune it works like “a form of bespoke insurance.”
Read the full story here: fortune.com/2026/10/19/predi…
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
Life should be lived like EBITDA adjustments
It should always be positive, and sometimes, completely delusional
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America.
This will be the first of many.
Dudley K Beyler retweeted

zerohedge@zerohedgeOct 16
🇺🇸
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Data center junk bond update
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
We literally have flying cars but the 401(k) rollover process still uses paper checks.
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
Invesco’s Global Head of Real Estate Credit is avoiding data centers.
He cites single tenant risk, no alternative use, and functional obsolescence.
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
CoreWeave’s unsecured notes are officially 1,000bps STW, now yielding ~15%.
Either this is terribly mispriced and a buy or the HY market is telling you something about the AI build-out
Which one is it?
robinhood:0x5f10a1c971b69e47e059e1dc91901b59b3fb49c3
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
I'm increasingly partial to the argument that increases in the fed funds rate will do little to lower inflation, and may be counterproductive.
- AI investment is unlikely to slow because interest rates are slightly higher
- Energy is highly inelastic and rate changes can't alleviate the current supply shock
- Higher rates hurt supply-side solutions in housing, energy, autos, and other capital intensive industries
- Higher borrowing costs raise business operating expenses, some of which is passed along to consumers
- A large percentage of debt is fixed-rate, dampening the feedback loop but hurting new homeowners, small businesses, and investment
- An economy increasingly dominated by services is less sensitive to rate changes
- This century has repeatedly demonstrated how blunt interest rate policy can be, both in stimulating inflation when it's low and suppressing it when it's high
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
"You don’t get rich by diversifying into 50 mediocre assets. You get rich by finding 2 or 3 asymmetric home runs."
— Stanley Druckenmiller
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
T-Mobile spent five years trying to get rid of the exact spectrum Elon just called "the last critical piece" of complete phone coverage in America.
This 800 MHz block is Sprint's old Nextel spectrum, the stuff that powered push-to-talk walkie-talkie phones in 2004. The DOJ forced T-Mobile to divest it as a condition of the $26 billion Sprint merger. Dish had first rights at $3.59 billion and walked away because it couldn't raise the money. T-Mobile finally offloaded it to an investment firm called Grain Management last year for $2.9 billion plus a spectrum swap.
Grain's original plan was selling it to utilities for private networks.
Fourteen months later, SpaceX buys the whole portfolio, and shares of the carriers who passed on it fall as much as 8% in a single afternoon.
Here's why it matters so much. Starlink's satellite signal at 2 GHz can reach your phone outdoors, but it dies at the first wall. 800 MHz penetrates buildings. Most phones already have the band built in. So satellites handle the open sky, this low-band layer handles indoors, and suddenly Starlink Mobile covers everywhere a normal carrier does without the tower network.
Stack the moves. $17 billion for EchoStar's 50 MHz of 2 GHz spectrum. FCC approval for 15,000 Gen2 satellites this week. Now the low-band coverage layer.
Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile paid $81 billion in a single auction for C-band spectrum in 2021, then spent years and tens of billions more deploying it on towers. SpaceX assembled a nationwide carrier out of a distressed-asset sale, a forced divestiture castoff, and rockets it already owns.
The walkie-talkie spectrum from 2004 ended up being the piece that lets satellites replace cell towers. Nobody who touched it for twenty years saw that coming.
We announced an agreement to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio that will pave the way for @Starlink to become a major mobile carrier in the US.
With this new spectrum and our Gen2 constellation, Starlink Mobile can ensure Americans have access to high-speed mobile broadband no matter where they are → spacex.com/updates#starlink-…
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
Anybody recall when the $SPCX lockups come off?
































