NYC/SF
Joined February 2017
society hates on a young black man scamming $1.3m like he’s Thanos but then we have the biggest larpers of the century claiming to be making AI and robotics and raising billions
Fake San Francisco 49ers player has been arrested after scamming at least 26 women out of $1.3 million through romance and investment schemes. • Daejon Labrayae Love, 35, pretended to be a 49ers wide receiver and wealthy real estate investor • He met women on dating apps and convinced many they were in real relationships with him • He used 49ers gear, luxury cars and fake bank accounts showing millions of dollars to appear wealthy • Some victims were convinced to take out personal loans and send the money to them • None of the identified victims reported receiving their investment money or returns back
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TBPN is so clickbaity and cringe that even @pmarca -who follows every person on the planet- doesn’t bother to follow TBPN 🤣
🚨 EXCLUSIVE: Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen spotted smiling on a dock in San Francisco, fueling rumors that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is imminent
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Any profession requiring intelligence will become obsolete. Good thing making games require no intelligence
An internal version of Astra, @OpenAI’s next major model family, solved 10 major open problems in mathematics, quantum complexity, and theoretical computer science. We believe it will be a major step for scientific reasoning. openai.com/index/ten-advance…
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POV: your hot bay area friends take you on a 100 ft yacht sailing in the bay, ft. @oheather1337 @hthieblot
pov: your company sponsored a yacht gala to Alcatraz with 150 hot ppl the most popular side event at YC sus 🛳️💃
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@hthieblot is my posting gooder this time
Replying to @yangcliu
Just need to learn how to post good sir
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this guy is really cool
SHA256(Leopold Aschenbrenner has terrible instincts and he will eventually fail spectacularly.) Didn't expect it to be so soon (19 months exactly after the tweet) or so spectacularly.
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Really need my X to stop saying I’m in Colombia so my posts actually reach civilization.
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exactly today 365 days ago if you shorted USDCOP at 50x leverage, you wouldn’t have gotten margin called a single time (the lowest downturn is a mere 0.8%). USDCOP is down 25%. Unintentional hedge turned into the most profitable move. Exiting position now and will reenter a hedge when treasury rates plummet and cause a steep reversal in USDCOP. Likely to start in the next week and sharply increase in the 2-3 months following
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Have you guys tried making mobile games?
In FY26, over 200 million new players came to XBOX and our games, but our business did not grow with our audience. We need to close that gap by investing in what players value. That will take time, but we expect to return to growth by the end of FY27.
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Am I dumb or this doesn’t make much sense? Spot prices are 2x higher (bad imo) because those GPUs aren’t locked under 36+ month commits…. Not because hyperscalers are under earning…. Anyone who owns GPUs would much prefer a contract for 24+ months at 1/3 or even less of spot pricing today… Spot pricing is 2x+ because supply is low, not because demand is high. Thus, demand seems high because those with supply have no incentive to keep their gpus available on spot. It’s like saying the supply is low for tricycle repairs… ain’t nobody want to repair tricycles not because there’s so much demand for it, supply isn’t catching up
Market is overreacting to hyperscale credit spreads widening from my perspective. TL;DR Spot pricing for renting GPU compute materially above contracted rates implies hyperscalers are underearning while operating cash flow acceleration is an underestimated source of funds for AI capex. The fact that spot prices for GPU rentals are at least 2x higher than contracted rates is the missing piece from the discussion about hyperscaler credit, which is the only fundamental factor behind this selloff. Multiple private companies are planning on spending at least 2x more per GPU for compute as contracts roll-off and some have spoken about this publicly.   As contracts roll-off, hyperscale growth rates are going to continue to accelerate as their installed bases of compute reprice higher. Hyperscale operating cash flow growth using a mix of estimates and actuals is modeled to accelerate from 31% in the first quarter of 2026 to 50% in the second quarter. This acceleration should continue for the rest of the year and this is not in estimates which incorrectly model a deceleration in the third quarter from my perspective.   Some math. Consensus estimates are probably for 25-35 gigawatts added by hyperscale and neoclouds in CY28 (using a range as standing up datacenters is hard and a lot of the neos plus labs are still private).  At 60b per gigawatt, that is 1.5 to 2.2 trillion in capex. Consensus estimates for hyperscale/neo operating cash flow is 1.3 to 1.4 trillion. I think this gets revised up materially as contracts reprice and growth accelerates so the 100b to 700b that would hypothetically need to be plugged by debt goes away. And their credit profiles materially improve. Not to mention the said 100b to 700b would be less than 1 turn of incremental leverage on consensus EBITDA estimates. And obviously the Nvidia and Broadcom “credit wrappers” help improve creditworthiness as well given their FCF profiles.   OpenAI, Cursor/Grok and the various Open Source inference clouds have accelerated materially over the last two months per public data and Anthropic continues to grow insanely fast while likely generating FCF. This - along with the fact that spot prices for GPU rentals are so far ahead of contract - are the missing pieces from the BofA chart on hyperscale FCF vs. semiconductor FCF.   Hyperscalers are underearning and anyone who signed a contract for GPU compute in 2024 and 2025 is overearning. Operating cash flow will be enough to fund capex but as contracts reprice and cloud growth continues to accelerate then spreads likely come in as well.  
Would also note that CDS markets are easy to manipulate - was a huge feature of the GFC - short the stock and then buy the CDS. So I would not put attach much signal to CDS. 
Net, net I’m not that concerned about the widening spreads in hyperscale credit. The real risk is that bringing power online and energizing all these GPUs is really hard but we are getting better at this every day.
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sometimes im anti-ai too (if investors are reading this -- yes, 100% of our ads are 100% ai generated and we do not waste money on manual ads)
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Interesting
I just might give vibe coding a shot. Not because I don't like to do programming, but because I've been having a lot of trouble hiring talented programmers, and I'll probably feel less bad about firing a chat bot. I'm thinking it could make the dull tools I'd need to make myself to make this darn game. Like a map editor, or a node graph visualizer. Bonus points if they can be used to bounce esoteric ideas at. Like what the canonical simplest trinary logic gate should be. What options should I look into? Oh and if anyone tips on restaurants that serve crow, that could come in handy.
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Bernard Arnault never predicted the Chamath effect on Loro Piana
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*Points at post from Jan 2025*
I believe DeepSeek’s recent developments should not be misconstrued as a mere demonstration of Chinese assertiveness or an attempt to undermine Western technology. Rather, it represents a meticulously orchestrated defensive strategy by both China’s private sector and government to forestall the imposition of more severe sanctions by an increasingly “China-hawkish” U.S. administration, exemplified by actions against platforms like TikTok. A significant challenge in enforcing punitive measures against China to establish a reciprocal technological relationship—ensuring equal opportunities for app launches in both China and the U.S.—lies in the realm of open-source technology. China is acutely aware of this dynamic. The release of DeepSeek, notably timed on the eve of the Lunar New Year (poor timing for Chinese employees), serves as a preemptive measure against potential U.S. actions. It is not a coincidence that this happened shortly after Trump's inauguration - where many tech have been advising Trump significantly on the topic of US v. China tech. By introducing Deepkseek, an advanced open-source codebase, China not only showcases its technological capabilities but also complicates the U.S.‘s ability to impose punitive measures, as such actions could hinder global technological collaboration from which the U.S. also benefits. This scenario underscores China’s confidence in its global positioning. By willingly sharing substantial value now, China aims to continue reaping the benefits of global technological collaboration, thereby deterring potential sanctions, while simultaneously maintaining a closed domestic market for its consumers.
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Truly insane how dirty Argentina plays. Im here in Colombia and its crazy to see LATINOS cheer for Spain over a fellow latam country 😂
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Really want to try Kimi (hosted on our B300s) but early analysis shows that all data is sent directly to Kimi for “training purposes.” A bit sketchy
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lots of takes on this but occams razor rings true here: A fish likes water. it is all he knows. culture. And it’s not about the $, as a billion dollars in China is not even close to being the same as a billion dollars in the US.
kimi’s founder & ceo got his phd at cmu. why didn’t he stay in america?!
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we r losing to China, we must import … non-Chinese! this is a “I like some of the lady Gaga songs but wtf does she know about cameras? moment
Replying to @vkhosla @BillAckman
Why is China supposedly going to win the AI race with zero Indians but we have to import hundreds of thousands of Indians to compete? Our companies with Indian CEOs are performing worse than they did 20 years ago even though we have had extremely open student, OPT, H-1B and H-4?
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when ur cofounder asks we can buy 4 more instead of 2 more DGX B300s 😍
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maybe I’m retarded but I don’t understand the need for consumer clothes folding robots, if someone can explain it to me nicely. Most of the tasks I have my staff do are completely unrelated to household chores - ex: my mom needs someone to procure special ingredients for a homemade dish. Or … taking the dog out and thoroughly cleaning her paws when back.
Introducing ACT-2 Preview The first robotics model to unify broad generalization with high reliability. A single fine-tuning example can teach Memo a new behavior that generalizes. Zero shot, real unseen homes, 99% success rate.
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