Creator of The Roman Sun Tzu Method™ 25+ Yrs | Strategy. Macro. Machines. Moves. ⚔️ War Room is live now. Stay sharp.
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Joined March 2009
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$HG – Copper. Monthly.
A decade of base building between $2.00 and $4.00. The breakout came. The retest held. Now $6.22 and climbing.
Measured extensions: $7.28. $8.30. $9.82. $12.52.
Monthly close below $4.00 ends the thesis.
The general watches the breakout level, not the noise.
#Copper #Commodities #Gold #AI
Posted this 23 hours ago. The data is already confirming it.
CCC spreads just hit 10.62%. The highest since 2022.
The bond market is pricing the sorting. The equity market is still chasing the tech.
Hyperscalers have the cash. Neoclouds have the debt.
$NVDA $ORCL #Macro #Credit
The AI cycle is real.
The financing is not.
Data centre bonds are trading in the 80s. The debt-funded second tier borrowed at 3% and is refinancing at 5%. The math breaks.
Hyperscalers have the cash. Neoclouds have the debt.
This is not a burst. It is a sorting.
Read the new breakdown:
robertmusella.substack.com/p…
$NVDA $ORCL #Macro #AI
Sanctions relief is a paper trade.
160 sanctioned VLCCs. 24 are viable.
The rate is driven by war risk, not vessel count.
Washington can lift a sanction. It cannot de-mine the Strait.
$FRO $DHT $TRMD $NAT #OOTT
⚠️ Sanctions relief unlikely to ease tanker crisis.
Washington’s reported plans to ease sanctions on #ShadowFleet tankers may do little to alleviate record freight rates. Of approximately 160 OFAC-sanctioned VLCCs, Kpler estimates that only 24 could potentially return to mainstream trade after accounting for vessel age and ownership restrictions.
With war risk, rather than vessel availability alone, driving freight costs in the Middle East Gulf, sanctions relief risks delivering limited commercial benefits while weakening geopolitical leverage.
Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/Nh8sAn
CCC spreads just hit 10.62%. Highest since 2022.
Equity is pricing the technology. Credit is pricing the refinancing wall.
This is the sorting in real time. The weak do not survive.
A 5-year moving average cannot measure a 3-year technology.
The productivity dip is the capex drag. You pay the cost before you get the output.
The returns are delayed. The debt to fund them is not.
The bond market is already pricing the financing for the wait.
The AI cycle is real.
The financing is not.
Data centre bonds are trading in the 80s. The debt-funded second tier borrowed at 3% and is refinancing at 5%. The math breaks.
Hyperscalers have the cash. Neoclouds have the debt.
This is not a burst. It is a sorting.
Read the new breakdown:
robertmusella.substack.com/p…
$NVDA $ORCL #Macro #AI
The physical premium normalized. The futures price didn't break.
If paper were pricing an oversupplied market, it would have collapsed. It didn't.
Physical gave back the panic premium. Futures held $110 through it.
The basis compressed. The floor held.
$BZ $CL #OOTT
Thoughts and prayers for all the oil bulls who told us that Dated Brent is the true oil price, while the front-month futures price is just a "vibe." Dated Brent yesterday crashed back down to the front-month futures price, just like it did back in April.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
Robert Musella retweeted
I joined @FerroTV and @annmarie on @Business earlier today to discuss the latest on the energy market.
The global energy crisis that we’re in the midst of goes well beyond the Strait of Hormuz, where the cost of moving oil are potentially approaching $1 billion a day in additional costs.
That is unsustainable.
But that’s just one part of the picture - there’s disruption across the Black Sea corridor, regular strikes on Russian refining infrastructure, Houthi-inspired obstructions in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab, not to mention climate-related bottlenecks including the Rhine at historic low levels and a Panama Canal that LNGs are struggling to transit.
And yet: everyone remains fixated on Brent.
I call Brent a "vibe contract" because its price is increasingly disconnected from the reality of the physical energy markets. Diesel is at record highs. Gasoline prices are rising. The cost of physically delivering energy is moving higher - but Brent isn't reflecting the full extent of that disruption.
Why? The answer lies within price discovery. If you're a hedger facing physical exposures that are substantially above the benchmark price of Brent, how can you accurately manage that risk?
The more uncertain the market is, the more difficult it is to participate in said market, and the less confidence that is generated within the futures market.
That last point is absolutely key. Futures markets are critical for the market avoiding potholes that might lie ahead. They anticipate the potholes that in turn lets traders adjust their behaviour and avoid the hazard.
If the futures market isn’t operating as it should, investment is impacted, behaviours change, people fail to price risk accurately and so they cannot anticipate the pothole - they drive straight into it. It can have profound consequences on the global market.
The White House may be focused on getting through the midterms in a few weeks, but I struggle to see a straightforward resolution to addressing the reality of the market right now.
Watch my discussion in full below and thanks again to the team for inviting me on.
youtu.be/kqIZbRqSLuU?t=4683
