FaZe vs BCGame, Dust2 + Nuke, through xK:
BCGame: 181 kills from 137.3 expected
FaZe: 158 kills from 115.3 expected
Both teams beat their xK by almost the same amount (+43.7 vs +42.7). The gap came from chances, not finishing
BIG vs The MongolZ, 3 maps (cache, inferno, mirage) through xK:
BIG: 173 kills from 131.1 expected
MongolZ: 170 kills from 131.3 expected
Almost identical on paper. BIG beat its xK by +15.5 on Cache, MongolZ by +15.5 on Inferno. On Mirage MongolZ simply had the bigger chances: 56.4 xK vs 43.9.
The best metric still slept on🙂
xK (Expected Kills) Breakdown – Spirit vs Mongolz
Spirit: 156.85 xK → 143 kills (-13.85)
Mongolz: 162 xK → 159 kills (-3)
Both teams underperformed, but Spirit left way more kills on the table.
Player diffs:
Mzinho +8.55 (47 kills!)
sh1ro +5.56
donk +0.16
tN1R -10.55
bLitz -7.61
Full visuals below
xK (Expected Kills) Breakdown – PARIVISION vs Spirit
PARIVISION: 140.6 xK → 140 kills (-0.6)
Spirit: 119.89 xK → 112 kills (-7.89)
Both teams underperformed, but Spirit with way less chances.
Player diffs:
nota +3.62
donk +5.17 🔥
zweih –2.43
magixx –5.20 😬
Full visuals below 👇
donk went absolute GOD MODE: 56 kills (42.61 xK) → +13.39 diff
Only donk & ultimate finished with positive xK diff
Team totals:
Spirit → 172 kills (162.97 xK)
Liquid → 146 kills (157.16 xK)
Full expected vs reality table below.
xK (Expected Kills) Breakdown – Falcons vs NRG
Falcons: 131.3 xK → 144 kills (+12.7 overperformance 🔥)
NRG: 143.85 xK → 149 kills (+5.15)
NRG came in with the higher expected output… but FLC showed way more clutch overperformance!
Player diffs:
Sonic +9.34
Nucleonz +7.49
😬 kyxsan –6.7 (ouch)
Full visuals below 👇
Astralis beat FaZe 2-1 in ESL Pro League yesterday.
FaZe was creating way better chances overall, but one game decided everything.
Jabbi was deciding player as he overperformed his 37,59 expected kills with crazy 49 kills, but he wasn't alone, as top 3 players of this match up were all from Astralis (+staer +6 xK diff and phzy +6 xK diff)
G2 — 133.48 xK (127 kills, -6.48 diff)
MOUZ — 176.59 xK (174 kills, -2.59 diff)
G2 once again struggled to create expected kills. They’re usually solid at converting chances, but you can’t win games when the gap is this big.
Awful execution from Aurora, posting a -27.01 xK diff across two maps yesterday.
FURIA far more efficient with a +16.55 xK diff.
Can FURIA keep up this pace against Spirit?
G2 executed better, but Spirit created far more opportunities!
SH1RO stepped up with a massive +11.99 xK Diff, while Donk dipped to -4.33 xK Diff.
Spirit (244.09) 246 - 243 (233.03) G2