20090103.moca

What i'm doing with my coins brain dump i didn't proof read - A couple thoughts as to how I’ve traded this cycle so far First and foremost alts and onchain are behaving very similar on the way up. Coins go into a lockout up trend, the entire timeline flips tubro bullish. This lasts until price cools off. eventually we rotate. Attention gets vamped onto the next. The strongest coins, however, always get the rotation back. So far it’s been Hype, Zec, Lit, Pump, near… ? The obvious takeaway is there is edge in being able to sit on a coin longer than a few days. Look at what happened with pump. 2x off the bottom in a straight line, nobody owned it, and after a few weeks of underperformance it was like people forgot the coin existed? Picked their own vamp to outperform (stonk, long, pons), then pump gets back into lockout trend. The difference between the chosen alts and “onchain” is the flows keep coming back to the good alts. I stand by the idea that it is hard to justify anything onchain in the 300-500+ range because these alts have so much fucking juice in them. I don’t think Zec $5k+ Hype $250+ VVV $100+ Pump $.2 this year is that ridiculous. It means I have to either trade low caps into the 20-50 range or fully focus on spot alts (mentioned below) and leverage trading breakouts to stack more spot alts. The obvious takeaway here is In order to catch the real moves these alts are capable of the only way to get there is by holding spot. Price action is schizo, partly bc everyone is trading high leverage only. It leads to nasty washouts and stops being run. 5-10xs are going to require being able to sit through chop. Look at how bitcoin has traded, lockout move 5-10% higher followed by seven days of nothing, which is legitimately grueling to leverage longs. Everyone gets wiped out. The timeline goes to war. Then we leg up again. I don’t see why this would stop. In hindsight the obvious way to play it was sitting in spot which goes against what I have been doing (and getting paid for). —— A valid concern is what will happen with stocks/bonds/war/oil/ant ipo/etc. The honest truth is I don’t think it matters. The fear was always “if crypto is trading this bad while stocks trade this good what happens when it flips.” There have been moments of stock misery (despite things looking pretty great all things considered rn) and crypto broke that correlation. I think bitcoin continues to exist as a great alternative to the ai trade and the good alts mentioned above can standalone as quality, cheap, assets that exist separately to crypto performance as a whole. Every second I have spent thinking above these fears and reading market commentary has been a mistake. I think in order to get paid as generationally as I would like over the coming months it Is imperative to read as few market opinions as possible. It feels like my feed has been overwhelmed by a storm of slop from people not making money. I can’t not get shaken out by trash. I stream for three hours a day, everyday, whatever I cover and learn during those sessions is beyond enough information to make clear decisions at the level that I need to. —— I think ultimately it comes down to what do I think will happen over the next 6-12 months. Thinking this far in advance is the only way to break away from the cesspool of flip flopping biases every hour on the timeline. And what I think it we have the best setup I’ve seen since joining crypto for outright mania. Sec + CFTC are running GAME to push crypto. Btc ETF buyers are green again. Tokens are investible. Crypto is “cool” on socials to the younger generation. Social trading apps have reached escape velocity. Perps matter. Robinhood going all in, etc etc etc. I don’t need to pill anyone on the bull case. I love the spot. The only way to make it that far is to hold the best coins on spot. This is shockingly difficult for me to do right now after having a great year trading perps. But I have to understand that the majority of that was during a bear market where there’s one or two impulse moves if lucky. Not a continuous uptrend with infinite marginal buyers higher and nothing but catalysts and air above like I think we have right now. It’s going to take some rewiring of my brain to make it where I think we can get to and keep exposure. My final thought is when I think back on the traders of last cycle that outperformed the hardest what sticks out was their ability to denominate all profits into the winning coin. In 2024 it was sol. Stack sol -> sell to buy onchain coins -> take profits -> buy more sol. Rinse and repeat continuous big wins while sol legs up from $8->$270. Congrats on making it. I have been mentally taking a similar approach the last couple months but didn’t execute it as well as I wish I had. First it was pump. Most recently it was zec. Great PNLs on both but I wasted so much mental energy stressed over short term pa for no particular reason. (Buy some spot retard) I sold, all of my zcash, because I felt extremely bloated in leverage and wanted to reset after playing the first round of the cycle pretty well imo. Moving forward I still believe that coin is zec and maybe a basket of a few others, Pump/Hype/vvv? And will probably be trading accordingly. Stack a ton of spot. Keep a non insignificant amount to leverage trade tighter spots, stack my golden goose coin And pray we make it. good luck to us