A team of Central Florida data nerds 💻 providing big data to the small campaigns in Florida politics. Contact wildbluedatafl@gmail.com for inquiries.
Orlando, FL
Joined January 2024
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Far-fetched Florida Election scenario:
Registered 🔴 5.5M voters
Registered 🔵 4.4M
Registered 🟣 (NPA/other) 4.0M
Expected turnout
🔴 83% ⏩ 4.6M votes
🔵 78% ⏩ 3.4M
🟣 67% ⏩ 2.7M
Let’s say ~10% of 🔴 voters and 65% of 🟣 voters vote for Harris.
Harris 5.2M
Trump 5.0M
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We feel 🟣 voters will make Florida closer than it should be between Harris and Trump, Mucarsel-Powell and Scott.
But will the “Republicans for Harris” movement come to fruition for the DEM candidates to help get them out of the hole/deficit and across this finish line on Nov 5?
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In Florida HD35 special election in Jan 2024, it’s estimated that (D) @KeenForFL won the NPA vote by +35 to win the race, as more REPs than DEMs turned out to vote.
With 1.6M NPA votes cast so far in FL, is it far fetched for Harris to hit +25 vs Trump with NPAs state wide? 🤷🏾♂️🤷🏻♂️
1. Orlando is a hotspot 🔥 for Democrat gains in Florida’s State House in 2024. FLGOP will SPEND BIG 💰 in the 7 purple seats as FLDEMs need to net +5 House seats to stop the REP supermajority. Here’s overlap between House and the area’s 3 Senate seats (dotted yellow) up in Nov.
17. The 2024 Presidential election is expected to see a far greater turnout from DEMs and NPAs, but will it be enough to for DEMs to win any of these 7 purple House seats? Can DEMs hold on to SD25?
REPs will have the funding advantage but DEMs can win if they follow the data 👍🏾
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18. Just going to @ a few accounts that have some skin in the game.
@OrangeDemsFL @SemDems @Osceola_DEC @FLHouseVictory @SenateVictoryFL @FentriceForFL @LeaderBookFL
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