OPINION: ‘When Moscow wants to play, it can find diseases in our tomatoes’: Azerbaijan’s Russia problem Azerbaijan may be expanding the geography of its tomato exports, but economist Natig Jafarli says the figures reveal a vulnerability that has remained largely unchanged: the country is still overwhelmingly dependent on Russia for access to foreign consumers. Jafarli was responding to reports that Azerbaijan had expanded the number of countries to which it exports tomatoes. He said he initially wanted to welcome the news as evidence that the government was reducing dependence on the Russian market. But the figures, he argues, tell a different story. According to data cited in recent reports, Azerbaijan exported tomatoes worth about $163.8m in the first six months of 2026, up almost 10% from the same period last year. Jafarli says about 93% of the country's tomato exports during the period went to Russia, with much of the remainder going to Belarus and Ukraine. “That means we still cannot take advantage of the opportunities that have been created to export our high-quality and tasty tomatoes to the countries of the Persian Gulf and the EU,” he said. For Jafarli, the issue is about more than agriculture. Heavy dependence on a single market, he argues, leaves Azerbaijan exposed to decisions made in Moscow. “When Moscow wants to ‘play’, it can still find various diseases in Azerbaijani tomatoes and thus try to put pressure on Azerbaijan,” he said. The warning has a precedent. ⭕️A market with political risks Russia has previously used phytosanitary restrictions against Azerbaijani agricultural exports. In December 2020, Russia's agricultural watchdog, Rosselkhoznadzor, temporarily banned imports of Azerbaijani tomatoes and apples, saying it had repeatedly found quarantine pests in the produce. The agency cited 17 cases detected over several weeks, including South American tomato moth and oriental fruit moth. The restrictions were subsequently eased, with imports from approved Azerbaijani producers allowed to resume following inspections and additional guarantees from Azerbaijan's food-safety authorities. The episode illustrated the leverage created by Azerbaijan's dependence on the Russian market. Russia has been the dominant destination for Azerbaijani tomatoes for years. In 2021, it accounted for 87.4% of Azerbaijan's total tomato exports. By January-September 2022, the figure had risen to 97.5%. There are signs of diversification. Azerbaijan's tomato exports increased in value in the first half of 2026, and the country has been seeking new markets beyond Russia. But Jafarli argues that opening new destinations is not enough if Russia remains the overwhelmingly dominant buyer. The concern is particularly significant because agricultural trade has repeatedly become entangled with political relations between post-Soviet states and Moscow. Phytosanitary rules are legitimate tools of trade regulation, but their selective or sudden use can have major economic consequences for countries heavily dependent on the Russian market.