Student, scholar, teacher & builder of learning autonomous systems.

Munich
Joined December 2008
Replying to @usuallyuseless
World models of scenes (incl. dynamics) allow both SLAM and prediction for model-based control. Let me show you our recent work (ICLR 2021) where we demonstrate that with realistic drone data. Here is a video with ground truth, filtered locations and long-step predictions.
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The best what comes out of math is all those people that can think very clearly and in a very disciplined way. Imho, the proofs are a side product.
'math is about understanding' confuses the process with the product, the product of math is and will always be proofs math has never been this exciting and mathematicians had never had the potential to create their own math with such freedom, start vibe mathing everything in your backlog can't imagine what euler or hilbert would give to have a tool that could help them explore all the math that they didn't have enough lifetimes to
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Replying to @elonmusk @fchollet
All fields? Hardly. As I have often pointed out, the only AI that works well today is AI in the virtual world behind the screen, for example for automatically summarizing documents, playing chess, proving theorems, creating images, programs and PowerPoint slides. But there is no AI-controlled robot that can do what a plumber can do, or what a capuchin monkey can do, because the physical world is much more demanding than the world behind the screen. Passing the Turing Test is much easier than True AI or Real AI in the physical world. Hence the Turing Test is not a good way of measuring intelligence. To achieve True AI, AI software research per se is not enough, it has to be combined with the physical world of machines and robots. No AGI without mastery of the real world! Taken from Sec. 20 of the "Annotated History of Modern AI and Deep Learning" xitter.cf/SchmidhuberAI/status/1…
Machine learning is the science of credit assignment. My new survey (also under arXiv:2212.11279) credits the pioneers of deep learning and modern AI (supplementing my award-winning 2015 deep learning survey): people.idsia.ch/~juergen/dee… P.S. Happy Holidays!
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Darwin worked exactly 4h each day. According too this argument 👇 he did nothing meaningful. 🤭
I don’t agree. A PhD student should not prioritize work-life balance. Getting to do a PhD is a privilege. You are paid to think. There is no pressure for you to be economically useful. It is a unique opportunity to push the boundaries of human knowledge and produce something ground breaking. And nothing great ever happens without complete devotion. Look at everything that moved and shaped the world. Every single person who created anything meaningful, in science, in arts, in music, in movies, devoted their lives to their craft. Extraordinary outcomes require extraordinary inputs and some degree of sacrifice. Sure, have work-life balance during your PhD. But be content a mediocre outcome.
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Justin Bayer retweeted
Apparently the first thing mechanical engineers do at university these days is switch to AI courses. That‘s wrong. There will be way too many AI engineers in no time and nobody who can take an idea all the way to mass production. Such a fascinating field.
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Justin Bayer retweeted
Italian efficiency when it comes to coffee should be studied. In Italy: - Walk into a bar and look at the guy - Un caffe - 30 seconds later it’s ready - Shoot it - Leave €1 - Walk out In the US: - Join a line - Wait - Order coffee - Answer 12 questions: Size? Milk? Roast? Sugar? Temperature? Colombia beans? Name? How do you spell it? - $12.34 - Ask for a 20% tip. Click 5 times on a ipad to have a custom tip - Tap phone - ask where to send the invoice - Wait again on a different line - Someone call a name that sounds similar to mine - get the coffee - too hot, can't drink it - finally at temperature taste like shit
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Bam.
Replying to @windjacker
Written for a different world. I removed that clause. Go to town with your agents 🤘
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Justin Bayer retweeted
13 years. RIP my darling boy.
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Justin Bayer retweeted
Extracting physics and dynamics (that are good enough for control) from state data alone is already super challenging, let alone from images. People often think reconstructing images is hard but ignores the difficulty in retaining the low-level dynamics details in VLMs, which are more essential for control.
Everyone's freaking out about vibe coding. In the holiday spirit, allow me to share my anxiety on the wild west of robotics. 3 lessons I learned in 2025. 1. Hardware is ahead of software, but hardware reliability severely limits software iteration speed. We've seen exquisite engineering arts like Optimus, e-Atlas, Figure, Neo, G1, etc. Our best AI has not squeezed all the juice out of these frontier hardware. The body is more capable than what the brain can command. Yet babysitting these robots demands an entire operation team. Unlike humans, robots don't heal from bruises. Overheating, broken motors, bizarre firmware issues haunt us daily. Mistakes are irreversible and unforgiving. My patience was the only thing that scaled. 2. Benchmarking is still an epic disaster in robotics. LLM normies thought MMLU & SWE-Bench are common sense. Hold your 🍺 for robotics. No one agrees on anything: hardware platform, task definition, scoring rubrics, simulator, or real world setups. Everyone is SOTA, by definition, on the benchmark they define on the fly for each news announcement. Everyone cherry-picks the nicest looking demo out of 100 retries. We gotta do better as a field in 2026 and stop treating reproducibility and scientific discipline as second-class citizens. 3. VLM-based VLA feels wrong. VLA stands for "vision-language-action" model and has been the dominant approach for robot brains. Recipe is simple: take a pretrained VLM checkpoint and graft an action module on top. But if you think about it, VLMs are hyper-optimized to hill-climb benchmarks like visual question answering. This implies two problems: (1) most parameters in VLMs are for language & knowledge, not for physics; (2) visual encoders are actively tuned to *discard* low-level details, because Q&A only requires high-level understanding. But minute details matter a lot for dexterity. There's no reason for VLA's performance to scale as VLM parameters scale. Pretraining is misaligned. Video world model seems to be a much better pretraining objective for robot policy. I'm betting big on it.
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So what if the first hit on google for the first question is a stackexchange question you asked 15 years ago?
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Alrighty. The Toad is out of the bag. 👜🐸 Install toad to work with a variety of #AI coding agents with one beautiful terminal interface. Check out the blog post for more information... willmcgugan.github.io/toad-r… I've been told I'm very authentic on camera. You just can't fake that kind of awkwardness.
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If we want to have an analogy to open source, calling a model without data and training code “open” is bullshit.
calling a model with a non-commercial license "open weights" is bullshit.
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📣 Announcing the Building Production AI on Google Cloud TPUs with JAX Technical Report! JAX has evolved from a numeric library to a complete, end-to-end ecosystem for production ML at scale. 🔹 JAX AI Stack (Core): JAX, Flax, Optax, Orbax 🔹 Scale: XLA, Pathways 🔹 Apps: MaxText, Tunix, uLLM Learn more ➡️ goo.gle/3X6bsNx
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Massive dataset but egocentric video is not going to get us dexterous manipulation policies. Egocentric data provides high-level semantic scene and task understanding (which frontier VLMs already generally provide). What is needed is fine sub-mm-level finger pose & force data.
This quoted post is unavailable.
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Here is the full run of MicroFactory, that autonomously assembles a photo frame - a real product sold on Amazon. This is a good example of how to deal with complex tasks, while we do not yet have a large set of robotic data to train a big general ai model. Thread:
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Star Trek, The Culture, and the meaning of life: Star Trek and The Culture are two of my favorite science fiction universes. Star Trek is at this point a vast franchise spanning multiple media and decades, but in my mind the central works are the two TV shows, The Next Generation and Deep Space 9. The Culture, on the other hand, is portrayed throughout nine novels by Scottish sci-fi writer Iain M. Banks. It's a safe assumption that most of you reading this will have some relation to Star Trek, but might not have read any of Banks' novels. You should. The two universes have much in common. In it, humans (or at least the humanoid races we identify with) live in vast interstellar polities, respectively, The Federation and The Culture. These polities rely on faster-than-light space travel, and also have other types of highly advanced technology, including matter replicators, weapons capable of destroying planets, fully immersive virtual reality, and advanced AI. In both universes we are able to cure all (or almost all) diseases, although in the Federation people still do of old age. Both the Federation and the Culture are portrayed as essentially forces for good, although, as in most good science fiction, there is no shortage of ethically convoluted situations that challenge this notion. Both universes are beloved by nerds and progressives. And yes, in both cases I'm talking about science fiction from the 1980s and 1990s. I'm 46, why do you ask? Both the Culture and the Federation are in contact, and sometimes conflict, with other civilizations. This includes space-faring societies with similarly advanced technology as well as worlds that have not reached this level of advancement. Some of these pre-space-flight civilizations might be similar to earth during antiquity or the middle ages, whereas others are much harder to classify, because the aliens are less humanlike. Now, here is a sharp and interesting difference between the Culture and the Federation. The Federation has a Prime Directive which forbids interfering with civilizations that have not reached a technological level where they can travel faster than light. Various plots in Star Trek revolve around the ethical implications of this. Really, should you not save this pandemic? It would be so easy… The Culture, on the other hand, has no such misgivings. They meddle incessantly in the internal affairs of lower-tech societies. In fact, many of the plots in the Culture series take place within civilizations which are in some ways less developed than the Culture, where Culture special agents carry out various missions, sometimes military in nature. I find this contrast very fascinating, especially as both of these sci-fi series were originally conceived against a background of decolonization and the Vietnam war. Both the Federation and the Culture are meant to be utopias: they are post-scarcity societies, free from oppression. Societies where it's good to live. But for different kinds of people. The Federation is centered on Earth, and largely populated by ordinary humans, the descendants of you and me. The Culture, on the other hand, is populated by a human-like species that is the result of genetic engineering. They are similar to us, but also have internal drug dispensers in their brains and half-hour orgasms. Utopian. Now, where am I going with this? I promised you something about the meaning of life in the title of this post. So let's get to the point. There is a striking difference between Star Trek and the Culture series that I would like to discuss. It's about agency, and AI. The Culture is largely run by Minds, which are artificial intelligences that are “a million times as intelligent” as the humanoids that populate the Culture. Each Culture planet, orbital, or major spaceship has its own Mind, which in turn controls a large variety of robots of different kinds. The Minds are sentient, but most of the robots are not. Culture citizens live a life of luxury and abundance, where all their material needs will be satisfied by the Minds and their robots. They just have to ask, and it will be done. Reading about the Culture might make you think of the phrase “fully automated luxury communism”, the title of a book by Aaron Bastani that has since become a meme. Banks, however, would rather characterize the Culture as a form of anarchism, as there are no laws or rules of any kind. People mostly behave nice towards each other because they are, well, cultured. However, the Minds do keep track of things, and will stop you if you try to murder someone. What do people do all day in the Culture? It seems most of them hang out, socialize with each other, and spend time on their hobbies, which include various games. They eat good food and have good sex. Some of them engage in construction or landscaping, and some of them cook food for others. All activities are voluntary. Nobody really owns anything, but most Culture citizens respect others’ wishes for privacy. Because these people can live for as long as they want to, they are rarely in a hurry. Life in the Federation is quite different. As most of Star Trek takes place on spaceships and on various non-earth planets or space stations, we don't get to see much of what life is like on earth. But we can extrapolate from what we are shown of life in space. Apparently, the Federation has done away with money, and everyone has a good standard of living. There is no poverty. But everyone has jobs, or at least tasks and responsibilities. And the world is most definitely run by humans. There is a political-administrative structure, where decisions are made by human leaders that have been appointed or elected. And there is ample room and need for human expertise: the starship Enterprise has dozens of scientists of various kinds, as well as medical staff, military and security expertise, engineers, teachers, and of course a bartender. The list of roles on the space station Deep Space 9 is even more varied, and includes merchants, spies, a tailor, diplomats, religious leaders and so on. Throughout the series, there are many references to music, plays, novels, and other works of art or scholarship authored by humans. This is clearly a human-centered world. High-tech, but the machines are in our service. It's not that the Federation lacks computers. Starships have central computers that interface with or control all their myriad subsystems, and communicate with the crew in natural language. The ship computers can also generate completely lifelike virtual reality simulations, complete with highly sophisticated non-player characters. As far as we can tell, these compåuter are extremely capable. There are also various handheld devices, such as tricorders, which are multi-functional sensors which seem to rely on some serious compute. But computers are always tools for humans to use. They do things humans can't do well or don't like to do. And they are never treated as independent or sentient beings. (Except for the android Commander Data, but he's unique.) This difference in the role of AI has major implications for how stories are told in these two fictional universes, and indeed which stories can be told. In Star Trek, stories take place both on Federation starships, space stations, and planets, and in interactions with aliens and mysterious entities of all sorts. Perhaps the most common setting in The Next Generation is the bridge of the starship Enterprise, where crew members solve problems together. Part of what makes Star Trek so appealing to me is how the plot typically hinges on the unique knowledge and personalities of the core crew members. This is a world where human expertise and judgement is crucial, even in the presence of computers that are much more advanced than ours. And it is a world where humans are entirely dependent on each other. Just like ours. The stories in the Culture novels, on the other hand, take place almost entirely outside of the Culture. At least the good parts. As the Culture is constantly meddling in alien civilizations, or sometimes just spying on them, they need to send human operatives to these civilizations. Humans apparently blend in much better than robots. And that's how Culture citizens find themselves in unfamiliar environments, in harm's way, without being able to count on the support of their superintelligent overlords/babysitters. Which is, in turn, how Banks is able to write such good stories in the Culture universe, including some thrilling action sequences. (Apparently Amazon licensed the novels to develop a TV show based on them; I'm looking forward to the results.) Life inside the Culture is portrayed in the novels, but mostly as a backdrop to the actual action. We get prologues, post-mortems, flashbacks. In case there is some drama inside the Culture, it almost certainly revolves about what happens in its periphery, where it interfaces with lesser, weirder, or more warlike civilizations. The reason for this is almost certainly that it’s very hard to write good stories that take place entirely in an AI-driven post-scarcity utopia. Perhaps even impossible. For interesting stories, you need some kind of conflict, and choices with real consequences. In the Culture, nothing you do has much consequence, you can’t really change the world, and you’re not really needed. The citizens of the Culture are like kids in a kindergarten, acting in a constrained and safe space under the benevolent watch of their teachers, who keep telling them that their Lego builds and crayon scribbles are amazing. Now ask yourself: would you rather live in the Federation or the Culture? For me, the answer is simple: I want to live in a world where interesting stories can take place. This means a world that revolves around humans. Where humans call the shots, make discoveries, and depend on each other. The hedonistic utopia of the Culture would get old very quickly for someone like me. If you believe that the meaning of life is (at least partly) self-actualization, then the choice should be easy for you, too. One does not achieve one's full potential in kindergarten. If you're an ambitious person, who wants to do something big, the choice should also be easy. One cannot do anything big if one cannot have real impact on the world. The boundlessly ambitious people who build fast-scaling AI companies so that they can usher in radical change in the world would certainly hate life in the Culture. We may (or may not) one day be able to develop the kind of AI technology that could do everything we do. If that happens, how do we make sure that our society becomes like the Federation and not the Culture? I don't know. I am not saying that we should stop developing artificial intelligence. I am, after all, an AI researcher. And for all we know, better AI will help us with (or be necessary for) stuff like curing all diseases, traveling across the galaxy, or making Earl Grey tea in a matter replicator. But we have choices about which directions to develop technology in. And we certainly have choices about how to use it. All our technology is constrained by laws and cultural norms regarding when, where, and how to use it. Mobile phones, cameras, guns, cars, money, toys, make-up, musical instruments - we have rules for all of them. We are very much at the starting point for creating cultural norms for what kind of AI use is fine, which kind if forbidden, and which kind is technically legal but incredibly gauche. They say that politics is downstream from culture, and, assuming that is true, we have a lot of work to do in shaping culture.
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If 1000s of LotRs will be created by AI, none will give me the same connectedness to my fellow human beings, because no one will have read the same that I did. No transendence. This thread would be of little value to me.
I am (slowly) re-reading the Tolkien legendarium (of which Lord of the Rings is a small part). The whole body of work is so incredible and there's nothing else like it... it dilutes other worlds of fiction. Wait - your story doesn't have a comprehensive history/mythology spanning multiple ages all the way back to a creation myth as detailed in separate volumes? You didn't first invent new languages and dialects for your characters? You didn't pack it with powerful themes and stories written it in a beautiful, archaic style and compose poems and songs alongside? It didn't take you multiple decades of iteration? And what of all the uncharted territory still remaining? Is Tom Bombadil one of the Ainur. Where are the Entwives. What happened to the two unaccounted Istari. Can we hear more about what it was like in Cuiviénen when the elves first awoke? Or to see the light of the two trees of Valinor. Or of the splendor of the caves of Aglarond. What's most on my mind though - the Tolkien legendarium is imo a concrete example of a height of culture. Does AI, today or soon, make it easier to reach this high via empowerment in both writing and ideation? Or harder, when quick wins are tempting and ~free, and an independent ability to create is stifled. If such a body of work is made again but now with heavy AI assistance, does it inspire the same wonder? What if thousands of them come out on demand with just a prompt? Why do you feel cheated when you learn that something your read was AI generated? Is it transient or a function of capability? Is it slop? What is slop? Or is wonder inseparable from its own creation myth of a lifelong obsession of a mind like your own? So many questions.
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Aw, come on.
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Justin Bayer retweeted
It's already the case that people's free will gets hijacked by screens for hours a day, with lots of negative consequences. AI video can make this worse, since it's directly optimizable. AI video has positive uses, but most of it will be fast food for the mind.
Very impressed with Veo 3 and all the things people are finding on r/aivideo etc. Makes a big difference qualitatively when you add audio. There are a few macro aspects to video generation that may not be fully appreciated: 1. Video is the highest bandwidth input to brain. Not just for entertainment but also for work/learning - think diagrams, charts, animations, etc. 2. Video is the most easy/fun. The average person doesn't like reading/writing, it's very effortful. Anyone can (and wants to) engage with video. 3. The barrier to creating videos is -> 0. 4. For the first time, video is directly optimizable. I have to emphasize/explain the gravity of (4) a bit more. Until now, video has been all about indexing, ranking and serving a finite set of candidates that are (expensively) created by humans. If you are TikTok and you want to keep the attention of a person, the name of the game is to get creators to make videos, and then figure out which video to serve to which person. Collectively, the system of "human creators learning what people like and then ranking algorithms learning how to best show a video to a person" is a very, very poor optimizer. Ok, people are already addicted to TikTok so clearly it's pretty decent, but it's imo nowhere near what is possible in principle. The videos coming from Veo 3 and friends are the output of a neural network. This is a differentiable process. So you can now take arbitrary objectives, and crush them with gradient descent. I expect that this optimizer will turn out to be significantly, significantly more powerful than what we've seen so far. Even just the iterative, discrete process of optimizing prompts alone via both humans or AIs (and leaving parameters unchanged) may be a strong enough optimizer. So now we can take e.g. engagement (or pupil dilations or etc.) and optimize generated videos directly against that. Or we take ad click conversion and directly optimize against that. Why index a finite set of videos when you can generate them infinitely and optimize them directly. I think video has the potential to be an incredible surface for AI -> human communication, future AI GUIs etc. Think about how much easier it is to grok something from a really great diagram or an animation instead of a wall of text. And an incredible medium for human creativity. But this native, high bandwidth medium is also becoming directly optimizable. Imo, TikTok is nothing compared to what is possible. And I'm not so sure that we will like what "optimal" looks like.
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Justin Bayer retweeted
Vermüllte Zimmer, abgefackelte Möbel, Fäkalien überall: Die Knorrhütte an der Zugspitze wurde im Winter von Unbekannten verwüstet. Und sie ist kein Einzelfall. Können sich die Menschen denn nicht mal in den Bergen benehmen? #SZPlus sueddeutsche.de/projekte/art…
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Justin Bayer retweeted
The war on science in the US is already affecting private sector research like AlphaFold. Bears repeating but the private sector builds on top of things created by academic research for the public good. This hurts everyone.
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