Analyste fiscal 🧐 | Penseur indépendant 🔍 | Amoureux des chats 🐱
London
Joined September 2022
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PeterN Thinker retweeted
According to the latest monthly nowcast from Goldman, central banks bought an estimated 79 tonnes of gold in August, nearly five times the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes and up from 44 tonnes in July. Once again the biggest identifiable buyer was China. On a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, purchases are running at 85 tonnes a month.
PeterN Thinker retweeted
Or... one adult child, acting as executor, seven states away, dealing with their late parent's primary residence.
Housing is one stubborn seller away from a price reset.
With the 30-year mortgage back near 7.4%, sellers now outnumber buyers by the widest margin in over a decade: roughly 1.5 million sellers against under 1 million buyers. Prices are still holding only because sellers refuse to cut. The day they blink, the floor moves.
PeterN Thinker retweeted
THE ECONOMIST COVER ASKED IF BONDS WILL BLOW UP. THEN YIELDS FELL: Washed Out Price And Sentiment, Fear Propaganda Gets Them Onto Right Side & Rest Paralyzed Into Inaction Creating Only A Few Winners! metalsandminers.substack.com…
PeterN Thinker retweeted
The transmission from bonds to equities is creating opportunities. This chart quantifies its progress—and the associated risk. Small, credit-dependent cyclicals are the vehicles for traders with an appetite for risk and a short bias. More on this intermarketflow.com/bond-mar…
PeterN Thinker retweeted
🔥 JPMorgan's actual silver warehouse stocks down to around the 22.5 million troy ounce mark
...a lot different than the 132.7 million they indicate they have -- down a further 7.2 million troy ounces on the week -- and down about 18.5 million ounces over the last six weeks. They've shipped out about 95 million troy ounces from their own depository so far this year.
- Ed Steer
PeterN Thinker retweeted
$GC1! / $DXY 1W;
Gold has made a major run against the dollar index and is now backtesting the 45-year uptrend line for the second time, a level that has flipped from resistance to support. Price is also testing the yellow two-to-three-year channel. Watch for a reaction here, since a bounce would be a good sign.
#Gold #dollar
PeterN Thinker retweeted
Silver Stocks News – Last 24 Hours:
✅ $ASM Avino Silver & Gold (junior producer):
The company reports Q3 output of 582,836 silver-equivalent ounces, including 303,189 oz silver, up 15% from a year earlier, plus 1.1M lb copper. La Preciosa development ore contributed 105,867 AgEq oz as mill feed there rose above 450 tpd.
✅ $BVN Buenaventura (senior producer):
The company reports Q3 direct output of 3.36M oz silver and 29,009 oz gold from its Peruvian mines. It cut 2026 gold guidance at San Gabriel after tailings-filter repairs capped mill throughput for most of the quarter, and also revised Julcani's mix.
🏗️ $OCG Outcrop Silver (mid-early developer):
Colombia's mining agency approved the company's technical work plan for an up-to-40-tpd pilot mine and plant at Santa Ana, with first production targeted in 2027 once an environmental licence arrives. A PEA on scaling to a larger underground operation is about to start.
📄 $TK Tinka Resources (mid-early developer):
The company says it has started a PEA update that puts an open-pit silver mine at Colquipucro ahead of underground zinc-silver mining at Ayawilca, with results due early 2027. A fully funded 5,000 m drill program is set to begin in late Q4.
✅ $GGD GoGold Resources (junior producer):
The company reports fiscal-2026 production of 1.00M oz silver and 1.86M silver-equivalent ounces from its Parral operation in Mexico. September-quarter SEO rose 11% to about 530,000 oz, and cash finished at US$288M even as Los Ricos South construction spending began.
Coming up today: no significant earnings or filings expected.
PeterN Thinker retweeted
There are a lot of bears likening the current market environment to the Dot.com bubble. There are certainly some similarities, but there are vastly important differences as well. In the late 90s, global technology stocks surged far ahead of earnings, the current rally has been supported by stronger earnings, revenue and profit growth.
@steve_donze @bcaresearch
PeterN Thinker retweeted
Indian mutual funds stop bulk subscriptions to gold ETFs ahead of festive season
"Several large Indian mutual funds issued public notices late on Thursday suspending bulk subscriptions to gold exchange-traded funds, just ahead of the festive season when investor demand typically rises."
(Reuters)
PeterN Thinker retweeted
Silver Alert
Silver's EFP (Exchange for Physical) spread has been falling hard since yesterdays sell off. Dropping nearly 50%.
Meaning the Comex futures price is being sold more aggressively than London physical market or more demand for physical with these lower prices making the physical market relatively more expensive.
Similar action happened in 2025 when Silver futures market went into backwardation (futures price was less then physical price).
Need to watch for consistency , as this could signal a change in carrying costs and financing which could be supportive for silver if physical begins to tighten .
PeterN Thinker retweeted
Nuclear Stocks Diverge⚛️🧵
$CCJ reported a LT #uranium price (Sept) at $96.50/lb; spot price closed (Sept) at $89.63, indicating buyers expect tighter supply. A disconnect (#nuclear related equities vs commodity prices) = undervalued opportunities amongst LT/NT producers. $AEC
PeterN Thinker retweeted
RED HOT CPI ... Metals Get Dumped on the first few minutes:
CPI +0.6%
CPI Core +0.3%
PeterN Thinker retweeted
🚨 Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) released their weekly numbers earlier today:
↘️ Silver inventory down 12 metric tons last week
🈳 Total silver inventory: 866 metric tons (still low)
🔥 The low inventories and the high premium over the LBMA benchmark price, proves there is a glowing demand for physical silver in China.
PeterN Thinker retweeted
Business Insider: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva says AI is propping up world growth while erasing young workers’ first jobs.
Because, newcomers usually start in “routine, repetitive jobs” and rise through the ranks.
IMF research finds AI is likely to affect about 60% of jobs in advanced economies and 40% globally.
Roughly half of those exposed workers could benefit, while the rest are likely to see key tasks automated, and those tasks are often the substance of entry-level work.
The IMF just published its latest forecasts and it assume no extra productivity growth from AI, and the report finds that economy-wide data still show little effect on wages, jobs or measured productivity, despite gains on specific tasks.
> The surge in AI hardware trade comes mostly from higher prices rather than more units shipped, and rising memory chip costs are already pushing up core-goods inflation in some rich economies.
> In the IMF’s models, an AI bust costs the world economy almost twice what an AI boom adds: 1.1% of output lost by 2028, against 0.6% gained by 2029.
> AI hardware trade has roughly tripled in value since 2019 because prices rose, not because more was shipped, with Taiwan and Korea supplying 62% of net exports and the US and China taking over 75% of net imports.
PeterN Thinker retweeted
They never really say they are buying USTs per se, call it attractive option, they are simply raising FX holdings by lowering gold or letting price do it.
So China yuan and Russian ruble debt too. (Biggest trade partners)
#gold #kazakhstan
Full story in comments ⬇️
PeterN Thinker retweeted
🇫🇷🇨🇭 France is now widely described as the sick man of Europe, yet Switzerland is rarely mentioned as a compelling counterfactual. The two countries followed almost identical fiscal paths between 1990 and 2000, with Switzerland also carrying substantial public debt by the standards of the time and facing a rising debt trajectory. In 2001, however, Switzerland enshrined an optimal fiscal rule in its constitution and subsequently implemented it to the letter, with extraordinary results. The question remains the same, why does the economics profession not study the Swiss case more thoroughly?
