Head of Agent Development at Aaru. Associate professor of Sociology at Florida State University. Demographer.

Joined September 2011
Interested in sea level rise and migration? How many people might migrate? Climate refugees? Continued pop growth in coastal areas? Here's a new OA Review on Sea Level Rise and Human Migration in @NatRevEarthEnv with @Val_Mueller_ASU, @rmcleman & others nature.com/articles/s43017-0…
3
6
42
Linear algebra is not conscious. I can't believe we're entertaining this conversation.
2
112
A personal AI agent will likely be the equivalent of Siri or Alexa. Sure, more capable. But for the average person it will be something like "What's the weather today?" or "Is my flight delayed?" or "Play similar but new songs that I will like."
2
91
the beautiful thing about aaru is that they went headfirst into solving a really hard problem the hard way two+ years ago when they started the company, no one believed you could simulate human behavior without anchoring on human surveys. aaru saw how flawed human inputs make research and strategy outcomes. all the other simulation companies are merely building faster horses. great writeup on their progress so far, would (and have) bet it all on this team
Simulation has the potential to be transformative, but only if it's accurate. Today, we're sharing results of a comprehensive evaluation across 2,993 questions, with an industry-leading mean TVD of 7.62% and an MAE of 3.53%. More below, including the full post on our site.
1
7
116
22,609
Matt Hauer retweeted
Simulation has the potential to be transformative, but only if it's accurate. Today, we're sharing results of a comprehensive evaluation across 2,993 questions, with an industry-leading mean TVD of 7.62% and an MAE of 3.53%. More below, including the full post on our site.
11
39
13
179
64,362
Taking the initiative to be self taught is INSANELY high signal for multiple reasons.
A story I've told several times: during college, I got a job in an immunology lab despite not majoring in a biological science. Asked my PI how I should go about learning immunology. He said, "Immunobiology by Charles Janeway." I bought and read it. Apparently, no previous undergrad hire had ever done this.
2
247
Sometimes it feels like Millennials, who were born after the lead poisoning but before the algorithms, are the only truly sane generation.
308
1,732
270
20,970
558,787
I drew a 64 year old, currently living, Islamic Egytian woman from Badr, who has never been married but has 4 children, who works in domestic care and makes 50% more than the median wage, and has travelled 900 miles away to Khartoum North, Sudan (which is 1200 miles away).
Whoa- this is the most fantastic pedagogical tool I’ve encountered in as long as I can remember (which is a helluva high bar, considering who I live with). I’m so excited to have my 6yo play with it! And you all should too. anyhumanever.com/
1
156
I gave this Stata prompt to 18 state-of-the-art coding models. How many do you think produced runnable Stata code?
4
244
Matt Hauer retweeted
Personal news, my O1 is approved, moved to NYC and joined @aaruHQ design team. Excited to build alongside @virtualned @seekingtau @john_k If you are a designer who loves shipping your work to code, we are hiring designers in NYC, in person. Come work with me.
46
2
1
189
15,971
This is a really bad policy, lmao. We shouldn’t be luddites about this stuff and stick our heads in the sand.
2
2
619
Well then why don't you have RSI to make the AI prose better?
Recursive self-improvement is here. Most of the field is still debating when it will arrive. At Poetiq, we have been watching it work for months. That’s how we've beaten every benchmark that we tried.
229
It’s all copulas all the way down.
188
Matt Hauer retweeted
Btw, we're hiring product designers at @aaruHQ. NYC, in person only. DM me your portfolio if you're interested.
Been quietly building @aaruHQ's new design system and porting it into code over the past week. Components built on @base_ui, one at a time, all living in our own custom "storybook". Started with the Figma tokens, ended up fine-tuning everything in code, as colours and type just render differently in the browser. Now testing patterns and moving into layouts. Honestly the biggest unlock for design handover I've had in years. Next up: documenting each component's usage for agent use. Recommendations welcome.
10
3
1
100
21,021
I think the anthropic/openAI models each have their own purpose. But 5.6 Sol does what Fable does, but faster, cheaper, and largely better. The OpenAI models are still pedantic, but 5.6 is presently my workhorse.
1
192
We're going to be littered with dead agents, abandoned by their owners, that are shards of their original intelligence. People will pick up these shards and be the new wielders, invoking the original intelligence, collecting the shards until they become Adonalsium.
1
116
“...we see a widespread deterioration in scholarly standards grounded in a pervasive repudiation of ideals of objectivity together with a toxic intellectual climate in which reasonable dissent on politically charged topics is routinely suppressed and punished.” <-Hello Economics!
I strongly endorse this outstanding report, commissioned by Daniel Diermeier, Chancellor of Vanderbilt University, and Andrew Martin, Chancellor of Washington University on the State of Scholarship. It is a cri de couer about the state of the humanities and the interpretive social sciences. The object of scrutinty is "a deterioration in scholarly standards fueled by the substitution of political criteria for properly scholarly criteria in the assessment of research and a more general repudiation of longstanding ideals of rigor and objectivity." The report is properly nuanced in identifying subfields in which the scholarly enterprise has been damaged and as opposed to blanket disciplinary condemnations because of problems in particular areas. vanderbilt.edu/principles/st…
293
I don’t know how else to say this, but an insurance company without actuaries is basically not an insurance company but a scam.
1
1
142
Seeing this chart in the wild always trips me out.
Millennials can take over from here
1
1
5
859
Information theory absolutely explains AI. Information Theory >> everything else.
2
531