Investor looking for the dissenting opinion. Author at The 10th Man.
Joined August 2019
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(1/2) $PM deep dive out. As the cigarette business dies, a smoke-free portfolio rises from the ashes - that’s what investors seem excited about
the10thman retweeted
New Post out on $FEVR.LN
TLDR: Market too pessimistic on long term growth prospects, margin recovery and portfolio adaption potential. I see a ~16% IRR from today's price. Full report linked below let me know of any feedback, questions or comments on the report.
tinyurl.com/38h8f4rb
the10thman retweeted
When it comes to investing in a new technology, the hard question is rarely whether that new technology will create incredible opportunities for society
Instead, the question is whether that opportunity will specifically accrue to the shareholder, or to the customer
the10thman retweeted
Who’s actively writing @the10thmanbb level in-depth analysis these days? I’d like to commission a write up on Teqnion. It can be publicly published.
Thoughts @LibertyRPF @chriswmayer @scuttleblurb @borrowed_ideas @MT_Capital1 @kevg1412 @NicoperJES
the10thman retweeted
Really, really, really good chart from Sparkline Capital
Even if you grow revenue/earnings by 1000% over two decades, multiple contraction is likely to kill you if you overpay
Shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone but it just bears repeating
$NVDA
the10thman retweeted
Every business story has lessons.
But why not learn them through the fun lens?
I present you Take-Two Interactive (TTWO).
To say I peppered Eric Kress with questions would be an understatement. He worked in the industry and as an investor - that ideal balance of understanding what's happening. I treated him like the unfortunate soul that needs to sit across from me at dinner.
Realities of Mobile vs. Console
World Building
Hollywood vs Gaming
Free-to-Play
Death Spirals
Release Cadence
Multiple Expansion
the10thman retweeted
$IWG is the most mispriced business I own. If it was listed in the US, I think stock would be 2x current levels.
13x run-rate FCF isn't the lowest valuation by any means - but the cos managed partnership model has found product market fit and is starting to meaningfully inflect.
(2/2) I think I have a differentiated view relative to implied expectations about the value of that smoke-free portfolio – in particular how HTU excise taxes might change. I walk through that in the piece.
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the10thman retweeted
(1/n) 3rd post out on $FLT today. It’s a fantastic payments success story. Ron Clarke, took this business from near bankruptcy to a successful IPO in 2010. Then compounded revenues at an 18% CAGR into 2022. Adj EPS grew at a 20% CAGR.
$CSU Optimal Blue deal looks wild. If that $100mn of EBITDA (T12M to Feb) is maintained, that's a levered a-tax IRR of nearly 40%. Even if EBITDA fell 30% (and never recovered) I'd get a levered a-tax IRR of 23%. Dayummmmmm
Since all the cool kids are doing it...
threads.net/@the10thmanbb
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(1/n) First paid post out on $GOOS today (link in bio). It’s a remarkable CND success story. Dani Reiss (3rd gen founder) took this business from ~$3mn of rev in 2000 to $1.2bn last year. He did so with very little external capital thanks to very high ROIIC AND org reinvestment.
(13/n) Hell, my punitive “no growth” scenario values this at just 25% below the current price, where a reasonable base case (they miss EBIT guidance by 50%) is +100% current price. IMO the risk/reward is compelling.
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