Compute @ Anthropic | Formerly AI strategy @ Google and tech equity research @ Bernstein Research

Chicago, IL
Joined April 2009
I wonder how many years in a row I’ll be able to just keep reposting this
Replying to @corry_wang
When I started my career, nobody cared about semis. The sector didn't grow, Moore's law was dead, and everybody just wanted to talk about SaaS stocks How the times change
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Was catching up with a friend from my days in public equities and was reminded of how investors will always *dramatically* overestimate how much any company actually knows about their own business
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To be an operator is to just be constantly confused. At Google we literally didn’t have the infra to track Search user retention until like… 2018 lol
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I had never expected the pivotal moment would be getting everyone to agree that yeah mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous killer drones would be, like, a bad idea These will not be the hardest AI deployment questions that society will face in the next 3 years!
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All I have to say about SaaS stocks right now is that I’m heartened to see everyone else in the market has started extrapolating straight lines on charts as well
1/ If you really believe LLMs will dramatically compress the cost of software development in 3-5 years, doesn't this obviate the reason for independent software vendors to exist? This doesn't seem obviously crazy to me - it'd just be a return to the days of mainframes
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1/ If I had a nickel for every time Mark Zuckerberg blew a few billion dollars trying to hire a team of star researchers to build a second place frontier AI research lab, I’d have two nickels. Which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it happened twice
Breaking news: Meta’s chief artificial intelligence scientist Yann LeCun, a Turing Award winner who is considered one of the pioneers of modern AI, has told associates he will leave the Silicon Valley group in the coming months. on.ft.com/499Co6p
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3/ Another thing that remains unchanged after a decade and a half - Mark Zuckerberg is extremely uninterested in AI safety, ie why DeepMind refused to sell out to Facebook
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4/ The one thing that has changed - all of the checks now have an extra zero (or two) “Even young PhDs could pull a half million dollars a year” Ilya was offered “nearly $2 million for the first year” Some things do change!
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1/ Last week I read Genius Makers on a rec from @modestproposal1 - this was Cade Metz's 2021 book on the history of ML It was really fascinating, but in the same way you'd be fascinated reading a history of Newtonian physics published 3 months before Einstein invented relativity
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11/ A friend recently told me a hilarious quote from Ernest Rutherford: "All science is either physics or stamp collecting" If you can't derive some underlying principle of reality from your research, then ultimately you're just collecting a bunch of random facts to no end
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12/ In that vein, Genius Makers is the apotheosis of the "stamp collecting" era of ML research Let's hope we're finally entering the physics era
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