司徒九号

There's a new Ebola outbreak in the DR Congo. I'm already getting lots of questions, so let me tell you what you should know: * This one is already big — "over 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths have been reported". This means we're just learning about this outbreak long after its already been spreading. This makes it harder to find contacts and all the cases. Most outbreaks don't get this big by the time they're over, let alone this big by the time we even recognize them. * This one is in a really tough place — the outbreak is centered around the east of DR Congo, in a place with a lot of conflict, cross-border traffic, and instability. There may also be cases in the big city here, meaning worry for more/faster spread in an urban environment. I've worked up here, it's a tough spot to get to and work in, due to transport and conflict. There was an Ebola outbreak here in 2018-2019 that grew to over 3,000 cases. * This is on a few borders — this outbreak is close to the Uganda and South Sudan borders. Uganda has a lot of experience with Ebola outbreaks, South Sudan less. Very possible there's already been cross-border cases, given size of the outbreak already. WHO and countries will be stepping up surveillance, but again, this is a place with a lot of conflict and instability. * This is not your normal Ebola — most outbreaks have been of the Zaire strain of Ebola. That's the one we have vaccines and treatments for. But this outbreak appears to be due to the Bundyibugyo strain. This has caused a few outbreaks in DR Congo in the past, as well as over the border in Uganda. BUT there is no vaccine, and no treatment for this strain. My initial reaction here is that this isn't good, at all. I'm glad Africa CDC is on it, as is WHO. But delayed recognition means this has already gotten big, at a confluence of borders with a lot of instability, and for a strain that we don't have any vaccines or treatments for. I'll share updates as I hear them