@slantchev

Professor of Political Science at the University of California San Diego IR theory and conflict, formal modeling. All views expressed here are strictly personal

Del Mar, CA
Joined January 2022
Friends: Hein Goemans and I have a piece in Foreign Affairs explaining why negotiated peace is very unlikely because of Russia. foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/o…
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Branislav Slantchev retweeted
We tracked 70K hours of conservative podcasts. They’re not talking about Trump anymore. (w @noslouch @sabrod123)
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Branislav Slantchev retweeted
Russian jet-powered drones have bombed central Kyiv throughout today, largely targeting the neighborhood around the main railway station. The city is shrouded in smoke and the air smells heavy and toxic. At least one person has been killed and many others wounded. Fires are still burning here.
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This is what last night looked like in the abstract. In the immediate reality, there were numerous explosions and anti aircraft defense fire that could be heard even in the underground shelter throughout the night. Students from the left bank couldn’t make it to class today. We rescheduled the exam and postponed one of the lectures and the two practice sessions. The ones who managed to come stayed for the improvised session — you could see some had barely slept — and the rest joined online. The lecture was in the shelter because the Russian attack is ongoing.
This is what a country that sits in the UN looks like in practice. Missiles and drones over homes, cities and civilians. And then russian diplomats walk into the UN and pretend they are part of the civilized world.
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Branislav Slantchev retweeted
Moreover, Russia is the enemy of every single Russian, and always has been Some of them get it, some of them don’t
Same here. I’m Russian and Russia is my enemy.
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Fucking hell.
Exclusive: FBI data allegedly stolen by the hacking group ShinyHunters carries granular detail about scores of bureau officials’ ​job assignments, including sensitive work against Chinese spies, Russian intelligence, drug cartels, and more, Reuters has found reut.rs/4yZ4jzI
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Документация ООН по Буче — это абсолютно трезвый, лишённый эмоций документ, подтверждающий внесудебные казни и массовые убийства гражданского населения в период российской оккупации. Можно привлекать сотни спичрайтеров, менять версии от «это всё английские спецслужбы» до «это сделали сами украинцы», но есть судебно-медицинская экспертиза. Связанные руки, пулевые ранения с близкого расстояния, обнаруженные тела в подвалах — это материальные доказательства. Кремль пытается защитить себя ложью, но для международного права процесс документирования уже состоялся. Впереди — неизбежная правовая квалификация действий всех причастных.
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Branislav Slantchev retweeted
‼️ A Russian ballistic missile struck near a maternity hospital in Kyiv’s Podil district. Windows were blown out and part of the maternity hospital’s facade was damaged. A nearby clinical diagnostic center was also damaged. One person was killed in the parking area near the medical facility. A maternity hospital. While the world discusses negotiations and peace, Russia continues sending ballistic missiles into the Ukrainian capital.
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Branislav Slantchev retweeted
In the last 3 months, at least 350 Russian strikes 🇷🇺 have been recorded in Kyiv 🇺🇦 and around ▫️July 2026 : 112 strikes including 70 missiles ▫️August 2026 : 124 strikes including >21 missiles ▫️September 2026 : 117 strikes including >25 missiles It's worth noting that a big part of missile strikes in August and September will take time to be recorded, since many targeted industries and critical infrastructure. Also, numbers for July are +/- complete but not for August and September. What is Russia targeting in Kyiv ? ▫️Mainly warehouses : 31 in July, 52 in August and 62 in September ▫️Industries, military bases and very often civilian targets, including debris, crash, downed drones/missiles and misses. Analysis : due to the lack of Patriot missiles and the mass arrival of jet drones (Geran-4/5) guided with Mesh network in July, Russia started a massive bombing campaign of Ukraine's capital city. Most of the missiles get through and many drones manage to target critical industries, warehouses and now gas stations (12 have been hit so far). Next few months will be very difficult for the Ukrainians in Kyiv. A mass migration is to be expected, as well as attacks against power plants, electric substations and more drone and missiles strikes.
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The simple answer would have been “We asked.” Rubio’s deflection shows we didn’t.
REPORTER: Why not ask Russia to stop targeting energy sites first? MARCO RUBIO: Well, how do you know we haven't asked Russia to stop?
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Yes, one day after the war, Ze will write a book called "How I Kept My Cool Around Trump All Those Fucking Years" and it’ll be the bestseller of the decade. nitter.cf/atrupar/status/2102461…
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Branislav Slantchev retweeted
Rodion Kudryashov, a Ukrainian colonel and deputy commander of the Third Army Corps, has written what I consider an extremely important column examining some of the lessons of the Vivaldi offensive operation. I put together a summary of the key points: • In war, it is assault troops — infantry — who actually retake territory, but the conditions that make this possible are created long before they take their first step forward. • An offensive does not begin when the infantry receives the order to advance. It begins much earlier: with headquarters, commanders, personnel training, logistics, intelligence, unmanned systems, sustainment, and dozens of decisions, most of which never make the news. • The Third Army Corps spent more than six months preparing for Operation Vivaldi. When the corps assumed responsibility for the sector, its first task was to stop the deterioration of the situation and stabilize the forward line. • You cannot plan a complex operation if you do not know where your front line will be tomorrow. In such a situation, logistics remain under constant threat, while assembling a strike force becomes extremely difficult. • A commander must be responsible for the entire cycle — from preparing the individual soldier to achieving results on the battlefield. • A modern commander must process an enormous flow of information, make decisions quickly, understand the capabilities of systems, logistics, intelligence, and adjacent units, while at the same time avoiding the suppression of initiative at lower levels. • An army in which every decision spends hours moving up and down the chain of command will lose to an army that can complete the same process in minutes. • Russia has more manpower, more resources, and a significantly larger industrial base. That means a “unit versus unit” model cannot serve as a long-term strategy for Ukraine. Every unit of Ukrainian resources must produce a greater effect. • Everything cannot be reduced to technology: even ten thousand drones will not create an advantage by themselves if there is no effective command-and-control system behind them. • If a junior commander sees the situation changing but has to go through five levels of approval before reacting, the enemy may simply be faster. Sometimes a few minutes matter far more than one additional piece of equipment. • Flexible command is not just a nice phrase from a military textbook. It can be measured very simply: how much time passes between the emergence of a problem and its solution. • The corps invested not only in equipment, but also in NCOs, officers, staff training, lessons learned, intelligence organization, and planning. • The corps began retaking territory and conducting offensive operations after it learned how to win time — the time between identifying a problem and deciding on a solution, between the decision and the action, and between detecting a target and striking it. • What matters is the system and the command culture: competence must matter more than formal seniority; a strong NCO corps is essential; headquarters must be capable of planning rather than merely transmitting orders; technology must be integrated into a unified system; and logistics must be planned as part of the battle rather than treated as a supporting function. • Most importantly, the goal is to create an environment in which, after every successful or unsuccessful action, one simple question is asked: what can we learn from this today that will make the entire system stronger tomorrow? • Winning one battle is not the same as winning the war. The enemy is also learning, changing its tactics, looking for weaknesses, and trying to scale whatever works. • The colonel ends with a reminder that “Vivaldi” has four seasons. So far, only part of this composition has been heard publicly. The task is to make sure that after Ukraine’s “Vivaldi,” the Russian army increasingly hears Mozart’s “Requiem.” pravda.com.ua/columns/2026/0…
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Branislav Slantchev retweeted
And for my next trick, a story in three parts
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The WORST Ukraine War predictions by anti-Western so-called “experts” that have aged terribly. A thread. 🧵 1. Political scientist, John Mearsheimer. Feb. 2022: "I don't think Russia is going to invade." Sep. 2023: "The Ukrainians are doomed to lose." Jan. 2024: "It's ridiculous to think Ukraine can hold the line in 2024." Apr. 2025: "It's unimaginable Ukraine will hang on beyond 2025." Jul. 2026: "The Russians are slowly moving forward."
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Branislav Slantchev retweeted
Watch Glenn Greenwald's (@ggreenwald) HUMILIATING Ukraine War predictions that have aged terribly. From predicting Russia would use nuclear weapons, to claiming Putin only wanted control of the Donbas, to repeatedly declaring "the war is over" in 2023, 2024 and 2025.
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Branislav Slantchev retweeted
The anonymous “senior administration official” behind one of the stories the White House cited to justify banning POLITICO was none other than Vice President JD Vance, @oliverdarcy scoops status.news/p/white-house-pr…
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К вопросу о гражданской войне в Украине! "Не надо ломать комедию! В боях за Донецкий аэропорт и Дебальцево в 2014-2015 годах участвовали регулярные подразделения армии рф", - Z-пропагандист Дмитрий Стешин внезапно признал, что никакой «гражданской войны» на Донбассе не было.
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Branislav Slantchev retweeted
Russian propagandists kept shouting at Zelensky: “When are you coming to Moscow?” Zelensky: “On a missile.” Well. They did ask.
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Branislav Slantchev retweeted
Every sanctioned Russian oligarch will now start working with tinpot dictatorships around the world to take Europeans hostages to have leverage get off of the sanctions list. France just opened one helluva Pandora’s box.
Azerbaijan's dictator Aliyev releases a French hostage after Alisher Usmanov gets off the sanctions hook....Hoo ha !
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This. 👇
Of all the abominations in the Trump administration, I personally find this spineless sycophant to be the most abhorrent. Unlike the other lunatics and imbeciles he works with, this one actually understands the full extent of the catastrophe he has helped bring about.
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Absolute disgrace and also an idiotic move that signals to Putin that he can continue the war with impunity. These people would have gone to Berchtesgaden twice a year and invited Hitler to Washington for talks if they could. Because wars are solved by words and invites.
The United States has officially invited Putin to the G20 summit in Miami, set for December. "We believe this is an opportunity for Putin to engage not only with President Trump, but also with other world leaders. We hope that's an invitation he'll accept," Marco Rubio said.
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