Did we just enter a Bitcoin bear market? In my September market update I explained why "my short-to-medium term expectations are currently low." The price was $113K. And it was clear that despite recently setting a new high at $124K, we were losing momentum. Despite every good headline imaginable, despite tons of ETF and corporate buying... The Bitcoin bull was losing steam. Yesterday I shared my latest thoughts on where we are on StackWisely. Tl;dr: Yes we may have just had a trend change, and we may have to wait a while for that trend to play out. Read the full piece here for free: stackwisely.com/insights/did… How low could we ultimately go? I added a bear market projection feature to the dashboard yesterday to answer that question. Based on 73 historical instances when we were at a similar cycle index, we could bottom somewhere in the $40K range as early as April 2026. This sounds dramatically lower than I personally expect. But that's what the data says. Like all predictions, take this with a grain of salt. And if you're in hodl only mode, by all means ignore this message and consume permabull content all the way down to the bottom. That's what I did in 2021. It was stressful, but I ended up with more BTC. It worked for me as a guy with no kids and an income. But my permabull days are over. I have kids to feed and more capital to protect. So these days I prefer to think in probabilities and plan accordingly. The most important thing is to make a plan that works for YOU instead of letting influencers (bullish or bearish) control your buying and selling decisions 🫡

✅ Multi-cycle giga-resistance shattered. Let's have some fun.

Planning to buy-borrow-die instead of selling your Bitcoin? The Bitcoin-backed loan simulator is now live on Stack Wisely. You can now run your borrowing plan through bullish and bearish scenarios to see: - Will you risk liquidation? - How much can you borrow per year? - When is the optimal year or price to start borrowing? - How many BTC will you need for margin calls? - How much will you pay in interest and fees? - How much wealthier will you be if you borrow instead of sell? Bitcoin is still volatile. Running your plans through realistic bearish and bullish scenarios (instead of relying on a linear CAGR) will help you make smarter decisions. Loans will work well for some people. But others will be better off selling a little in the short term to avoid the stress of potential margin calls. And many will be better off continuing to stack. Whatever you do, just make sure you have a plan. Ideally before the euphoria clouds your judgement 🫡

The model-destroying bull run you've been waiting for is on the other side of this line. Will we break it?

We're currently projecting a top near $247,335 in October. Like all guesses at a top... This one should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt. Our core belief is that you should have a plan in place for a bullish AND bearish scenario. Including the possibility that we already topped. But we arrived at the ~$250K number by looking at all the times our long-term indicators were at a similar level in the previous cycle, taking the average gains remaining from there, and applying them to today. Another way to say it: "Historically when the market was at this point, we had 132% gains remaining on average." But these numbers look dramatically different if we include the 2017 cycle. With 2017 included, the forecast shifts to a top at $1,044,822 $1 million per coin by December 31st, 2025. That would indeed be a happy new year.

Bitcoin is nearing a decision point on the medium-term. - Weekly MACD is threatening a bearish crossover - Stack Wisely Cycle Index potential lower high - Weekly RSI potential lower high Bottom line: Momentum needs to pick up again otherwise we could be entering another bearish period. And if confirmed, this would be the first lower high on the Stack Wisely Cycle Index for this "cycle" - something worth paying attention to. On the flip side, we haven't been "overheated" since January despite recently setting a new all time high. You can either interpret that as meaning that we have plenty of room to run from here, or you can see it as a replay of November 2021 when we set a new high without reaching overheated levels. As an investor, you need to be prepared for all scenarios. If you're in stack-only mode, none of this matters. Stay solvent, create value, and DCA buy the world's only finite money. If you have significant wealth in BTC, create a plan that allows you to sleep comfortably in bearish and bullish scenarios. And then stick to the plan 🫡

One of our users requested a new Bitcoin selling strategy: They want to sell $40K worth of BTC every week the next time the market overheats. And they want to stop selling once they have built up a $500K cash cushion to get them through a potential bear market. This is better than trying to time a "pico-top" and works well if you know your cash needs for the coming years. But one downside is that in the bear case, the market will never hit the overheated level so you'll end up heading into a bear market with zero cash cushion. Still useful to evaluate, so it's now available to all users as a template. Adjust the selling threshold and cash cushion size as needed 👌

Same scenario with zero capital gains tax. You gain about a +$100 million advantage in today's dollars.

When could a Satoshi Billionaire retire? - Assume they need $15K per month (inflation adjusted) - They want to pass down significant wealth - They pay 15% capital gains tax Our simulations show that retiring January 1st, 2029 with a monthly DCA-out strategy is feasible in all scenarios. And they'll end up passing on at least $200 million in 2025 purchasing power terms. 10 coins is just over $1 million dollars today. A million in fiat isn't what it used to be. But a million dollars in Bitcoin can likely buy you permanent financial freedom in just 3.5 years. That's the power of The Ultimate Savings Technology.

You need to treat every 0.1 Bitcoin chunk as if it's a whole coin. Because before you know it, reaching "point one coiner" status will be as difficult as becoming a whole coiner is today. Celebrate 0.1 milestones. Round up to the nearest tenth of a coin as quickly as possible. Trust the path, stack wisely. And you'll look back on these days fondly. 🫡

How much will 0.1 BTC be worth in 60 years? And how much purchasing power will it have? Stack Wisely now lets you project your plans 60 years into the future instead of just 20. And you can now convert into today's dollars to quickly understand how your purchasing power will grow. Verdict? Young Point One Coiners that manage to HODL will be passing down a fortune.