Nerd processing the world. ex-tech banking, co-ran a fund. Got tired of company I kept. Looking for la dolce vita. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Joined October 2025
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People think I'm bearish Meta
FWIW to the people that follow me
This is the best risk reward that I have seen in $meta in a while
So I bought leaps today
1/ 2012 post IPO Peter Thiel puke
2/ 2022 rates and reality labs fiasco
3/ 2026.07.31
- they actually finally proved out MSL can function coherently and you still get the tariff tantrum 2025 price
- IG is firing on all cylinders and embedding itself more as both a true platform (with entanglements) and the primary creator platform
- for now they have the best glasses wearable on the market and it got better past year
This is clearly a sentiment thing if you listened to the calls.
Analysts ripping META a new one for "not knowing where the capital comes from" and "not knowing when it ends"
Meanwhile AMZN and MSFT had bumbling answers for where the capital comes from and the reaction was the reverse.
The thing with software oriented companies is that one release in theory can change the whole picture. So you have to position in front of products not after them. That's the risk you assume for the reward.
Do I know for certain Meta will release a Tier 1 harness ? No... but I know I built one myself so I know they certainly can. Claude Code harness was leaked in March. They have it. Probabilities are in our favor.
Can only play probabilities.
I think all hypers are all long term well positioned but the relative value to me is in Meta's favor.
Hence long hypers but strong weight on $Meta for me at least.
This podcast seems to have been recorded on October 9, 2026 by Altimeter Capital.
They released the podcast publicly October 15, 2026.
Do you think they sold stocks connected to this discussion in between that time ?
Do you wonder if anything in their conversations with Jensen on the podcast (or otherwise had but not published) represented MNPI?
I do not know which is why I am asking you.
If these benchmarks are representative. Hallelujah innovation driven deflation
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1/4
Levi - pls keep posting. The capital markets will care at some point.
Your Uber to the airport this morning cost $207.15.
Your driver (me) earned $73.02, or $51.84 after vehicle expenses.
Uber kept $86.52, or 42% of your fare, AFTER insurance, taxes, and other fees.
$86.52 > $73.02.
Uber (software) kept more for arranging the trip than it paid me to drive 60 miles over 74 minutes.
Here’s what makes this interesting. I’m a data guy and I’ve driven this exact airport trip about 190 times over the past few years. Passengers usually pay around $123, and Uber typically keeps 20%.
Today, you paid $84 more than usual. There was nothing in the app explaining the higher price. You just happened to pay significantly more for the same trip, and Uber kept most of that difference.
I’m not complaining about the $73 fare.
I’m pointing out how the system works.
Do not buy Meta thinking Susan needs to be educated by a teletubby.
Please.
If that becomes the shareholder base and direction of the company I do not need to be a part of it.
Alex (@alexandr_wang), please, on behalf of all $META shareholders, pull Susan aside and tell her that if she is thinking about an equity raise, it is not a good idea in this environment.
It could be really, really bad in financial terms. Thx.
This is very simple
When a whole layer gets replaced by generally available infrastructure the competition for returns on top of it increases.
It’s neither of the two options.
Quick reflection staring at my computer at 10pm: if AI is taking my software job, why have I never worked so hard in my life?
Two options:
1/ The narrative is wrong. There’s so much to build that there’s more work than ever.
2/ I mostly work with AI agents now, so I’m the bottleneck. My human speed just can’t keep up with them.
Thoughts?
Everyone (not just fund managers) was sitting on super low exposure excess cash to buy the dip across all risk assets right ?
It was a wall of worry so just a ton of excess capital everywhere ?
Yields were not justified it was just people freaking unnecessarily ?
If they believe this is actually as good as they claim they should have cut their Anthropic spend by 90%.
My guess is that they did not.
But I’m open to it!
Would love the excess capacity frankly.
We’re excited to introduce the Muse Wonder series with Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full, our most capable models yet. Both are frontier models, built to deliver state-of-the-art performance for personal and professional agentic tasks.
Muse Wonder is available today via the Meta Model API and Muse Code. Muse Wonder Full is available today for Muse Code subscribers. Muse Wonder will also soon power experiences in our personal agent product, Muse, rolling out first to subscribers.
This is spreadsheet crime.
We’re neglecting the largest line item which is ~50-60% platform take ($30) from Uber. Hidden amongst various accounting categories that intentionally mislead.
Also let’s be real. Bridges always cost money. That’s not a CA vs Texas thing.
There’s about 1.50 of CA charges and 1.30 of TX charges.
But it doesn’t matter because uber is fuzzy about all line items.
What kind of company charges a booking fee on top of another take rate they already enforce ?
It’s like Costco selling you a toothbrush and charging you a “selling fee” for the pleasure of selling you a marked up item.
Love John and this is nothing against him.
This was not wrong
Idk if I’m too much of a contrarian but genuinely after the Astra release I’m considering downgrading ChatGPT from 200 to 100. And then going from 1 Claude to 3 Claudes.
Someone talk some sense into me if I’m insane
Claude is just doing a much better job of getting real clean coding work done for me.
The multi session organization and the subagent mgmt far more effective in my experience.
Very curious on what you all think.
I talk out loud about this stuff both for the nerd ai enthusiast community but also because we are on the edge of usage so it helps the investing ones of us think through how things might go in the future.
Example if I could actually get muse to be productive for me then I would be putting a lot more weight to margin compression from all the labs.
Claude is slowly proving out more margin extraction from me. Just being honest about it.
Thought experiment:
Below, Replace China with AI enabled producers.
Then look at a BYD stock chart over 10 years.
Why are Euro auto brands losing to China? Well... let's look at costs, productivity, employee output, etc. Hard to compete with this.
"Using VW’s auto plants as a proxy, labor costs, labor productivity, sick leave rates, unit costs and electricity costs in its China plants are a fraction of what they are in Europe, so no one should be surprised at the market share shifts on the right. Even the imposition of 17%-35% tariffs has done little to slow European imports of Chinese EVs."
Populism is a slower growth force.
It’s worth watching because most assumptions and prices are built ignoring it.
At some point people will realize that acceleration maxxing is not necessarily a desired outcome for the individual nor for humanity in aggregate.
My above is irrefutable fact so long as the 2nd law of thermodynamics is true.
The sooner you reflect on this the closer you will be to humanity.
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I have no idea what it takes for a “trillion dollar company” to realize that this reset button bs makes you look like a little toddler trying to play a video game and not a real company let alone a public company.
Wake up.
Grow up.
Build a reliable and dependable relationship with your customers.
Serve them.
@sama
Seriously if you guys want I will get in the trenches and whip this biz into shape. DM me.
I criticize as a customer.
Not a hater.
