Former US Treasury/US rep IMF; US Chairman OMFIF; Non-Res Senior Advisor CSIS
Joined June 2018
- Tweets2.7K
- Following732
- Followers10.6K
- Likes13.6K
Fiscal policy looms as an increasing challenge for monetary policy and central bank independence. Yet central banks are largely quiet on fiscal policy. One can understand why.
But do they risk becoming the boiling frog?
omfif.org/2026/10/central-ba…
I'm looking forward to hosting Dan Katz, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, this Thursday (11 AM NYT) to discuss issues/outcomes from the IMF/WB Annual Meetings in Bangkok. Feel free to sign up below.
omfif.org/meetings/mapping-t…
Horrible news!!! It appears the President wants to convert Hains Point into plutocratic terrain, taking it from cyclists, runners & municipal golfers.
Let's hope the DMV community mobilizes in opposition.
Doesn't the President have better things to do with his time?
Breaking News: President Trump outlined a plan to rapidly overhaul East Potomac Golf Links in Washington, setting up another legal clash over the municipal course. nyti.ms/3U6NMKZ
The symbolism of Bessent not showing up to chair a G20 Ministerial and forgoing a major gathering in Asia when China’s regional economic presence is ever larger is not a good look for the US.
Some impressions from the Bank-Fund meetings in Bangkok:
1. The words are all negative but the numbers are all positive. Is all about unprecedented waves of shocks and risks while the IMF upgraded the forecast to something even stronger.
2. No one cares about tariffs anymore, they expect them to continue forever and have adjusted and moved on.
3. Everyone cares a lot about high interest rates. They expect them to continue forever but they haven't moved on.
4. Oil prices fall somewhere between these two. Everyone cares some, aren't sure if they'll continue and have partially moved on.
5. Everyone is having exactly the same conversations about AI as they are having here: will the demand boost continue, is it a bubble, will it kill jobs, when will it show up in productivity. I sensed much more optimism than pessimism and finance ministers and central bankers are not particuarly interested in p(doom).
6. No one seemed to mind that Scott Bessent didn't bother to attend.
How do you feel about the President waiving Russia related sanctions pursuant to the Graham legislation?
Praise for those who walked out.
No such thing for the current US Treasury leadership.
Delegates walked out of IMF steering committee meeting when Russian official spoke, sources say reut.rs/4yZanbG reut.rs/4yZanbG
A shameful chapter in American history that stains our country. Americans overwhelmingly back Ukraine.
A small number of Republican Senators have so far spoken out. Where are the rest?
Donald Trump is threatening to cripple Ukraine in its survival—and to expose Europe to Russian aggression—seemingly for the pitiful prize of minimising his losses in next month’s midterm elections economist.com/leaders/2026/1…
Mark Sobel retweeted
A new blog, which makes two points that should be obvious but are currently deeply contested:
1) the PBOC manages the RMB heavily
2) That management matters, as the RMB's value does have a clear impact on the pace of Chinese export growth
1/
cfr.org/articles/whats-the-r…
The US may be shooting itself in its feet, weakening the very properties that undergird dollar dominance. But Europe is also good at shooting itself in its feet. Don't expect a euro surge.
Victoria, you may be able to re-issue this piece in a decade. Don't delete it.
Debate is flaring in the US about whether political and policy uncertainty is threatening the dollar’s status as the world’s most important currency. In the EU, there’s a different dilemma: how to secure a broader role for the euro
w/@GioFaggionato
politico.com/newsletters/mor…
Just in time for the Bangkok IMF/WB meetings, the PBOC issued a paper on its views on the RMB, suggesting undervaluation is not much of a factor in China's excessive/massive surpluses.
The dissembling paper is sorely "yuan-ting"!👇
omfif.org/2026/10/peoples-ba…
My thoughts on the upcoming IMF/WB Bangkok Annual Meetings, including a discussion of a potentially fraught global outlook & key IMF operational & programmatic issues.👇
Am I too cynical and pessimistic?
omfif.org/2026/10/annual-mee…
Good and sound comments from Emmanuel Moulin.
French central bank head warns country at risk of being ‘strangled by interest rates’ ft.trib.al/itUDbJm
Japan's fundamentals aren't strong: lax monetary policy, Qs re fiscal sustainability.
But with rising US yields, market repricing Fed hikes & Japan's policy settings, don't count on a major rise in JPY.
Both sides should get their houses in order. That could strengthen JPY.
Today, I had a productive call with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. Our conversation built on President Trump’s discussion with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this week and reflected the strength of the U.S.–Japan partnership.
We discussed the desirability of a strong yen that reflects Japan’s strong economic fundamentals, and the importance of staying in close communication on currency markets.
Is this a joke?
The RMB is super undervalued, a major cause of China's excessive exports. The PBOC has only allowed slow RMB appreciation. It should rise far more quickly.
Putting brakes on RMB appreciation is a wrong step that should be met with international criticism.
China’s central bank warned against the “herd effect” and irrational expectations in the foreign exchange market for the first time in its quarterly policy meeting, as the onshore yuan continues its steady appreciation against the U.S. dollar caixinglobal.com/2026-09-25/…
Great piece.
RMB appreciation in and of itself may not solve the problem of excessive Chinese exports. But it would help and the Administration should be far more vocal in pressing the case for faster and larger RMB appreciation.
Trump Struggles to Find Leverage With Xi Over Chinese Exports
w/ @AnaSwanson
nytimes.com/2026/09/24/busin… via @NYTimes
Should European heads boycott the G20 Leaders' meeting in Miami if Putin comes?
70%Yes
30%No
40 votes • Final resultsUkraine has been attacking Russian energy infrastructure for years. The chart below shows that diesel prices began their surge in March of 2026 after the start of the Iran War.
Source: FRED from US Energy Information Admin.
From @WSJopinion: Trump lectures Ukraine, not Russia. He tells Kyiv to stop hitting Russian diesel, while Putin bombs civilian targets.
on.wsj.com/46U0nE7
President Xi alas isn't fixing China's broken growth model & reliance on exports. That would be optimal for the world economy.
Still, hopefully in the Trump/Xi talks the US will exhort China to move much faster to correct massive RMB undervaluation.
ft.com/content/b600dbba-e881…
Bill Dudley joined me, with Susan McLaughlin & Kurt Lewis, to discuss the latest FOMC, Warsh's tenure to date, rate outlook & task forces (inc. balance sheet).
Thanks to Bill especially for leading this joint OMFIF/Bretton Woods Committee discussion. 👇
omfif.org/videos/september-f…