SmallGains retweeted
Enjoyed chatting after the close with @michaelsantoli and @MelissaLeeCNBC on @CNBCOvertime
Discussing why we cut risk early this week, and what we are looking for to add exposure back.
cnbc.com/video/2026/10/30/3f…
SmallGains retweeted
New report out to 3FR clients. Examining:
-Why we reduced equity exposure this week.
-How to resolve bearish technicals and bullish fundamentals.
-Why tech's relationship with the inflation story has become a macro risk.
SmallGains retweeted
this is frying me dude. guy got turned into a nugget at 20 by a flying toy & theyre gonna let him use his chin to turn other teenagers into nuggets and ABC is running it as a feel good story. right when u think its done boom pan to his nazi patch collection. satire genius. dying
Ukrainian veteran Ruslan Knysh is just 20 years old. Still, he continues to defend his country after losing both arms and legs in a Russian drone attack. Today, he is training to become a drone pilot by using a customized chin controller to operate unmanned ground vehicles. abcnews.link/H2WKOYt
SmallGains retweeted
Three things I don't love about the current market set up:
1) Hyperscaler credit spreads have broken above their July (Leopold Liquidation) wides (chart below).
2) Index momentum has stalled and entered a consolidation.
3) Financials/Staples ratio falling apart.
SmallGains retweeted
Ukrainian MP confirms that 2023 peace plan, which was reported by @FT & accepted by Putin but rejected by Zelensky & Biden administration, envisioned:
"- Russia withdraws its troops from most of the four oblasts it had just declared “annexed.”
- The new line of demarcation runs roughly along the line as of February 24, 2022: Crimea and the part of Donbas that Russia controlled before the full-scale invasion.
- Ukraine recognizes Russian control over Crimea. - Ukraine grants Russia an unobstructed land corridor to Crimea.
- The ceasefire regime is guaranteed by NATO countries that provide protection for Ukraine.
- Russia begins negotiations with the US on its own security guarantees.
-Moreover, Russia was ready to give up the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as well.
-And the 300 billion in frozen assets was to go toward rebuilding all of Ukraine, that is, together with the occupied territories.
-As for Crimea: we were not required to recognize it as Russian, only to recognize Russia’s control over it. In other words, we acknowledge that right now it is under Russian control (which is how it is). We were also required to adopt a law banning the return of Crimea by military means.
-The land corridor to Crimea, a highway and a railway, was to be built at Russia’s expense. The hardest question was how to guard it. That is why the Russians were ready to give up Melitopol, but not Tokmak: they feared we would cut the corridor with artillery.
-Zelensky rejected this proposal at the time."
SmallGains retweeted
The attempt to stop the war in Ukraine described here corresponds to what is known as Milley’s window of opportunity, after the former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff who said it existed at the end of 2022.
In this episode, Putin agrees to withdraw to the 2022 line of separation, which once again proves that he was ready to do so at the time of Istanbul talks.
It is Biden’s advisor Jack Sullivan who terminates the effort, which gives an idea as to who in the administration may have helped derail Istanbul talks and who was whispering into Zelensky’s/Yermak’s ear about Russia being collosus on the legs of clay that could be feasibly defeated militarily.
These opportunities, squandered at the cost of Ukraine’s suffering extended for another four years, explain the reluctance by many to end the war now.
People and governments that were overly invested in illusionary goals will eventually face Ukrainians asking them: What have we been dying for?
At one of the tensest points in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, two Americans teamed up with a former GDR spy to stop nuclear war. They just needed to tell Putin.
On the cover of @FTMag this week, one of the most extraordinary stories I've ever reported:
ft.com/content/dcb57f30-bbfe…
SmallGains retweeted
I confirm the 2023 peace-treaty plan that was leaked to the FT.
What the draft envisaged:
- Russia withdraws its troops from most of the four oblasts it had just declared “annexed.”
- The new line of demarcation runs roughly along the line as of February 24, 2022: Crimea and the part of Donbas that Russia controlled before the full-scale invasion.
- Ukraine recognizes Russian control over Crimea.
- Ukraine grants Russia an unobstructed land corridor to Crimea.
- The ceasefire regime is guaranteed by NATO countries that provide protection for Ukraine.
- Russia begins negotiations with the US on its own security guarantees.
From my side, I’ll add a few insider details that few people know about.
The plan was discussed NOT ONLY by Rodnyansky: the key figure was ABRAMOVICH.
Moreover, Russia was ready to give up the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as well. And the 300 billion in frozen assets was to go toward rebuilding all of Ukraine, that is, together with the occupied territories.
As for Crimea: we were not required to recognize it as Russian, only to recognize Russia’s control over it. In other words, we acknowledge that right now it is under Russian control (which is how it is). We were also required to adopt a law banning the return of Crimea by military means.
The land corridor to Crimea, a highway and a railway, was to be built at Russia’s expense. The hardest question was how to guard it. That is why the Russians were ready to give up Melitopol, but not Tokmak: they feared we would cut the corridor with artillery.
Zelensky rejected this proposal at the time.
SmallGains retweeted
This paragraph from $META's inside 10-q filling may mark the official announcement that the funding environment for the AI buildout has turned the corner. (HT: Barclays' Alexander Altmann)
SmallGains retweeted
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
SmallGains retweeted
The macro repricing of energy is now underway. Check out today's move in long dated oil - that's calendar 2027 WTI. When long dated oil moves this strongly in tandem with energy equities making new ATHs, financial markets need to listen. This is not a transient spike in prompt oil. It's far more structural. Get long, buckle your seat belt, and hang on for the ride.
SmallGains retweeted
In migration-nations (countries that deliberately import worker that are more educated that locals) first and second generation migrant kids record higher PISA scores that the kids of locals. In Australia the trend is particularly strong. To me this is just one variation of educated parents push their kids to be educated. Source: buff.ly/49xhLvS
SmallGains retweeted
UPDATE: I can confirm that the Ledger supply chain is compromised in Europe as well. @Ledger should initiate an immediate product recall to protect users.
I just purchased a second device from a different Mediamarkt location today, recorded the unboxing process, and discovered spyware once again (video linked in the second tweet).
The device was compromised in the exact same manner, featuring identical modifications (such as additional cables and an LTE module). This indicates its a widespread issue rather than an isolated incident, potentially affecting Ledger inventory across MediaMarkt and Saturn stores throughout Europe (comprising over 1,000 stores across 11 countries).
My initial hypothesis was that these devices were returns that looked unopened to the employees and were just sold again as new however, a MediaMarkt employee confirmed that the device I purchased was not a return, and that returned Ledgers are sent directly back to the manufacturer rather than resold.
Store records show the inventory originated from Aqipa GmbH. While Ledger's CTO was unsure if Aqipa serves as the direct distributor between Ledger and MediaMarkt, it appears to be the case. Given that Aqipa distributes across Europe, any physical retail store receiving stock through them may be at risk.
I sent the first ledger to mark and the second one is going to ledger now, so that they can analyse it.
If you purchased a ledger from anyone other than the official ledger store, make sure to check your device!!
SmallGains retweeted
Extraordinary account from Bloomberg of what it now takes to move oil through Hormuz.
One tanker captain describes sailing at night with no navigational lights, phones or AIS, hugging the Omani coast under U.S. military protection, and maneuvering around a vessel that had just been attacked. His own ship was later targeted.
The risks are so high that crews are being paid multiples of their normal salaries, with one shipowner reportedly offering six months of extra pay for Hormuz shuttle duty.
More oil may be getting through, but at very high risk and cost.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
SmallGains retweeted
BREAKING: US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada have just agreed to a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel through the IEA, beginning immediately over four months, with a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days, per Macron.
The G7 says it will coordinate refinery maintenance schedules to prevent simultaneous shutdowns, will convene at the IEA in the coming days on the possibility of additional diesel releases, and calls on all producers to refrain from export bans "that could exacerbate market tensions."
The US told Germany and France on Thursday to draw down their emergency diesel reserves immediately or face a US diesel export ban, and asked the EU for 120 million barrels over six months. The US offered its own 40 million barrel SPR release on Tuesday.
SmallGains retweeted
Promote whoever cooked these numbers
Legend and a patriot 🚀
U.S. PAYROLLS BADLY MISS EXPECTATIONS
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 in September vs. 84,000 expected, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% vs. 4.1% forecast.
Private payrolls gained only 46,000, while government employment fell 17,000.
Wage growth also cooled to 0.13% MoM and 3.02% YoY, while August payrolls were revised down to 133,000 from 162,000 and July to -10,000.
SmallGains retweeted
U.S. CORE PCE FALLS BELOW EVERY ANALYST FORECAST
August core PCE came in at 3.0% YoY vs. 3.3% expected, below the entire range of 51 Bloomberg analyst forecasts (3.1%–3.5%).
The surprise was driven primarily by larger-than-expected downward revisions to previous months, rather than August alone.
Monthly core inflation was also marginally softer at 0.247% vs. 0.27% expected.