The strategy is simple: smash buy for 10 more days then watch your strategic stockpile 3-5x in dollar terms over the next 48 months

In case you missed it, the biggest Bitcoin miners are leaving the network and every miner who stays gets paid for it. Network hashrate is 26% below its ATH for a reason Part of it was machines losing money. Part of it was power getting outbid. Now look at it from the perspective of someone still mining. Bitcoin issues the same number of coins every day no matter how many machines compete for them. When difficulty fell due to decreased competition, each machine left on the network earned about 20% more bitcoin on the same power bill. and hashrate that migrates to a 20 year lease does not come back when the price recovers. the bailout for big miners is the bull run for everyone still plugged in watch

What it costs to build 1 megawatt of capacity, according to the CEO of the largest public Bitcoin miner: Bitcoin mine: $5 million AI data center: $40 million The AI build costs roughly 8 times more before anyone earns a dollar. It explains why public miners quit buying machines and started chasing AI leases. All i'll say is when the biggest buyers leave a market, the people who stay get their best entry price in years.

the pizza guy is the most misunderstood man in Bitcoin history. everyone knows Laszlo paid 10,000 BTC for two pizzas in 2010. almost nobody knows what else he did that year. he got Bitcoin mining to run on a graphics card, an NVIDIA 8800 GTS, and released the first working GPU miner on earth. until then everyone mined on a CPU. his setup was so far ahead that Satoshi emailed him personally and asked him to slow down, because GPUs were concentrating new coins in too few hands. blocks paid 50 BTC every ten minutes back then. the only man with a working GPU rig could have stacked 100,000+ coins before anyone caught up, and he probably did. so the pizzas were bought with coins he minted himself, and they proved Bitcoin could buy something real. the kind of chip he pointed at Bitcoin in 2010 is the same kind training every AI model today. one guy sitting right where Bitcoin mining and AI compute would later meet extraordinary

Tonight at 8pm ET I'm live with Will from Fold I'll do the math on what it costs to produce 1 Bitcoin vs buying spot, and how to get bitcoin back on the production It's free and we have a special gift for one live attendee at the end

Gold miners pull about 102 million ounces out of the ground every year. A century ago it was 16 million. Every time gold got more valuable, people found better ways to dig, and the supply grew with the price. The total stock still grows close to 2% a year. Bitcoin mining works the other way, and I get to watch it from inside a mining company. Network hashrate hit about 1,160 EH/s in October 2025. By February 2026 it had dropped 27% Through that whole stretch the network issued the same 450 bitcoin a day. because adding or removing "diggers" never adds coins. A block keeps arriving about every 10 minutes, whether a million machines are hashing or a trillion. So a higher gold price eventually buys the world more gold. A higher Bitcoin price buys more competition for the same 450 coins. You should understand that difference before choosing which one to hold for 20 years.

I watched a guy pay $11,000 for a Bitcoin miner that’s a paperweight in my office today. 2020: an S19 cost about $2,000. 2021: he paid $11,000. 2022: about $5,000. Today: it holds down papers. He bought at the top of the hype and did everything else right. Cheap power, good hosting, good pool But every dollar of that $11,000 still had to be earned back after operating expenses. You can run a machine well and still make a bad investment. In 2021, Bitcoin was surging and a chip shortage constrained the supply of new miners. Then China banned mining. Hardware initially flooded the market and prices fell. But as difficulty dropped, the miners still running earned more Bitcoin per unit of hashrate. Buyers rushed to capture those returns, pushing machine prices back up. The trap was paying a long-term price for temporarily extraordinary earnings. That’s why I watch hashprice: the daily revenue earned per unit of mining power. When hashprice is high, profitability looks incredible. Everyone wants a machine and sellers charge accordingly. When hashprice falls, the projections look ugly. Buyers disappear and hardware gets cheaper. Most people ask, “How much Bitcoin will this machine earn?” Ask the next question: “What will each bitcoin actually cost me, including what I paid for the machine?” Your hardware purchase becomes part of the cost of every coin you mine. Overpay on day one, and that premium follows you for the machine’s entire working life. A low price also doesn’t make a miner a bargain. Efficiency, power costs, and its remaining useful life still have to work. While your competition is watching headlines, you can just sit back and watch hashprice This is the nuance of a Bitcoin miner

Trump just promised $5,000 to every adult American citizen. I ran the math on where the money comes from: 245 million adult citizens times $5,000 is $1.23 trillion. Last fiscal year Washington spent $7.4 trillion and collected $5.4 trillion, so the deficit was already $2 trillion before a single check goes out. Add the checks and it’s $3.2 trillion. Tariffs are the pitch for paying it. Customs duties brought in about $172 billion this year, which covers 14% of the bill. The rest gets borrowed. Treasury sells more bonds into a market that already demands higher yields to hold them, and if buyers don’t show up, the Fed does. That is the printer We have run this experiment before. The three COVID checks added up to about $814 billion, and inflation hit 9.1% This round is 50% bigger and lands in one shot. So I’d treat the $5,000 as a refund on purchasing power you’re about to lose, and I’d put it in something nobody can print. If a check lands in my account, it goes into Bitcoin. I built a model for what one Bitcoin could be worth in 2030. With assumptions set below its own base case (5% of gold’s market value, 2.5% of institutional portfolios), it lands near $376,000. Stress test it with your own numbers. Drop a comment and I’ll send you the model.

A guy told me Bitcoin mining isn't profitable. I ran the numbers to prove him wrong and ended up proving him half right. I gave mining every advantage I could defend. Bitcoin climbs 5% a month for two years, which puts it near $250,000 in 2028, while difficulty grows 1% a month. The machine is a $4,250 unit on 7 cent power. In dollars, mining looked great. Between the coins it kept and what the machine resells for, $4,250 became about $12,800. Then I ran the boring option: put the same $4,250 into Bitcoin on day one and do nothing. Also about $12,800. Two years of running a machine, and it was a coin flip against a guy who clicked buy. So I built a heatmap to find where the coin flip breaks. Over two years, a penny per kWh moves the result about 9 points and $500 on the machine price moves it about 10. Hold the same assumptions for a third year and mining pulls ahead by about 9%. Two things the map leaves out, and both favor mining: the tax treatment, and the fact that mined coins arrive with no KYC (which trades at 10%+ premium) Whether mining beats buying comes down to what you pay for the machine and what you pay for power. The heatmap is free and runs on live Bitcoin price and difficulty. Drop a comment and I'll send you the link.

For 20 years, America's electricity use went flat. From the 1950s to 2005, generation roughly doubled every couple of decades. Then it stalled: about 4,000 terawatt hours in 2005, about 4,000 in 2020. Economists will cite efficiency. It also marked the era we stopped building: heavy industry offshored, no new factories, grid on maintenance mode. AI has broken the flatline. Datacenter demand has utilities forecasting load growth they haven't seen since the postwar boom, and the buildout is coming for your grandmas backyard. That's why Bitcoin miners in the middle of nowhere suddenly hold some of the hottest real estate in tech. Watch electricity demand and you can tell whether a country is growing or just financializing. You can print GDP but you can't print a grid

Meanwhile, China is losing the hashrate arms race China hedging with gold USA hedging with bitcoin and the financial rails to move it? let's see who wins

On Nov 3, 2025, Microsoft signed a $9.7B contract with a Bitcoin miner. If you followed the old investing rulebook, you missed it. Here is the new rulebook 🧵

I barely got these two approved. We launched both in the last 48 hours. The first is the largest Bitcoin mining giveaway of all time Two machines, $24,500 of hardware, winners announced October 10. On top of that, for the rest of October, the first 10 people who send Simple Mining a new customer get a free miner, hosted in our Iowa facility Why hand out machines instead of buying more ads? A referral shows up already trusting you, because someone they trust vouched for you first. We'd rather pay the person who made that introduction than pay a platform to guess. Details on both in the comments

The internet hit 20% adoption in 17 years. Bitcoin sits at 4% adoption in 17 years AI sits at 18% in 4 years The internet created the digital economy. AI is the the digital economy what fire was to the physical economy Bitcoin is the neutral value transfer mechanism in the digital economy The adoption curves reflect different needs. AI can deliver value in the first session. Bitcoin’s monetary properties become useful when people need what they offer. Agents will probably expand that need. An agent completing a task might purchase data, rent compute, pay for an API, and hire another agent. Small, frequent transactions across borders, between counterparties that have never interacted. That creates demand for payments software can execute directly. Bitcoin’s opportunity grows when those counterparties also value a network independent of a shared bank, platform, or currency issuer. But it still has competition, stablecoins may be more practical when budgets and prices are in dollars. The agent economy changes what bitcoin adoption means. One person could operate hundreds of agents. Millions of transactions could happen without millions of new human owners. An ownership chart would capture only part of that activity. which is why AI is going to accelerate Bitcoin adoption by creating more transactions where an open monetary network solves a real problem.