Investor for the deep state

Joined January 2019
if not you then who
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$MU is trading 35x next QUARTER's earnings
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TIL Luke Nosek left FF to start a fund exclusively focused on investing in SpaceX…nine years ago. He really might be that guy
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Trust nobody's opinion on X (including mine) All I've read for the past 24 hours is how horrible Opus 4.7 is Been using it hardcore for the past day. It is far and away the greatest AI model I've ever used. Don't listen to anybody. They're all bias. Just do your own testing
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The weird thing right now is the public markets don't have access to the growth side of software. Right now the trade is to sell SaaS and buy semis (the raw material of AI). What you don’t have yet in the public markets are the AI native software companies and therefore, you’re comparing the practical values of owning say a Salesforce vs the mythical value of owning a company that’s growing 10x (without having seen the actual financials). And everyone is always going to want the myth. These SaaS stocks aren’t going to trade in a sane fashion until the next generation of AI companies go public and investors can decide how to price a 10% revenue growth company with 30% cash flow vs 300% revenue growth company with negative 100% cash flow and SBC that will blow your mind. Until then, you’re walking hand in hand with your significant other looking over your shoulder. You know the meme.
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Veteran buried his eldest and it’s not looking good for his two others. Posting for any connections, help that can be made while they fight for time.
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I used to really dislike @NotionHQ . Then they launched meeting notes and calendar. Now I use Notion everyday. But still, I feel like I'm in a steam engine when everyone else is in a bullet train like Granola. Here are some suggestions: Notion meeting notes: - the floating unit disappears sometimes and I panic - when meeting stops sometimes the notes don't stop - why can't notion's AI agent create custom templates on the back of my calls? that would feel like magic - 'new page' results in a note outside meeting db. I actually have an agent that runs on friday to clean that db - impossible to get titles correct once the meeting is done. why so hard? - 'is the meeting note for this event' should be the opposite ie 'click here if this is not for the event' - attendees never seem to show up in the db - why can't I configure custom 'words'? Annoying to keep changing - I wish there was one click sharing. in general sharing is hard. at least sharing to slack should be easy Notion Calendar: - scheduling picker has a clunky UX, defaults to picking from 15 past. White is hardly visible over the Notion base layer - Only responds to drag not pick - Why don't notes get added automatically to the invite/meeting? Annoying as it feels like notes are separate to the calendar - why not add travel automatically to meetings outside of work location? - on gcal when I am stalking someone elses calendar, it auto expands. Notion Calendar does not - if x then y prompts. for e.g. if I add our meeting room, then location should automatically update to office location I'm trying to create an exec coach on top of my meeting notes. Can't/won't use yet another note taker now but please do consider some of these suggestions - this product can be 10x better @akothari :)
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We've raised $8.4m to make software that sharpens your attention. We're starting with an email app that lets you handle your Gmail inbox in seconds. We call it Avec. It's available now!
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Don't ever forget: human beings are fucking amazing. AI is neat, but it's no human and it will never compare. I'm very long on humans.
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Whoop filed a lawsuit against us, and this is our response. TL;DW: - June 2024: Whoop's Corp Dev reached out wanting to "explore collaboration" - 5 months later: cease and desist letter - Their demands: disable dark mode (ours defaults to light mode), rename common words like "Strain" and "Recovery" - We pushed back. Our lawyers exchanged letters for months. Then they went silent. - 2 weeks ago: sued us in Delaware with no warning - Their 111-page complaint claims our UI copies theirs but many of their own screenshots contradict their claims - Fun fact: Whoop updated their home screen to look like ours, not the other way around Watch the video below to learn more ↓
Replying to @WHOOP
@WHOOP just filed a lawsuit against us. A $10B company with 800+ employees is scared of us, a 20-person team making health tracking accessible to all. Rather than focusing on product and innovation, Whoop has decided to use its newly raised capital on lawfare. In this video, I share our side of the story, explain why their claims are baseless, and why we believe fighting back is the right thing to do.
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Sam Altman just said in his new interview, that a new AI architecture is coming that will be a massive upgrade, just like Transformers were over Long Short-Term Memory. And also now the current class of frontier models are powerful enough to have the brainpower needed to help us research these ideas. His advice is to use the current AI to help you find that next giant step forward. --- From 'TreeHacks' YT Channel (link in comment)
Morgan Stanley predicts a massive AI breakthrough driven by a huge spike in computing power across major U.S. laboratories. Increasing the amount of hardware used for training by 10x can effectively double the intelligence of these models. The recently released GPT-5.4 Thinking model already matches human experts on professional tasks with a score of 83% on the GDPVal benchmark. The biggest hurdle for this growth is an energy crisis, with the U.S. power grid facing a shortfall of 18 gigawatts by December-28. To keep running, developers are bypassing the grid by taking over Bitcoin mining sites and using natural gas turbines for their AI factories. This shift is creating a solid investment cycle where 15-year leases on data centers generate high financial yields for every watt consumed. Large companies are already reducing their staff numbers because these new AI tools can perform professional work for a tiny fraction of the cost. Researchers expect AI to begin recursive self-improvement by June-27, meaning the software will autonomously upgrade its own code without human help. The future economy will likely treat raw intelligence as a commodity that is manufactured by these massive computing and energy clusters.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
He doesn't say it's coming. He says he BETS it's coming. x.com/rohanpaul_ai/s…
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Marc Andreessen: IBM buried its CEO under 12 management layers and a gray-suit “cloud” that blocked direct contact with people doing the work. "Elon's (Musk) method is the opposite, extreme focus on substance. Extreme focus on getting to the truth.
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The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterMar 14
BREAKING: Meta, $META, is planning sweeping layoffs ​that could affect 20% or more of the company, per Reuters. Details include: 1. Meta seeks to offset "costly" AI infrastructure bets 2. Top executives have signaled plans to senior leaders at Meta and told ​them to begin planning how to pare back 3. If Meta settles on the 20% figure, the layoffs will be the company's largest since 2022 AI-based layoffs are accelerating.
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LayoffHedge
@LayoffAIMar 22
Snowflake just replaced its entire technical writing team with AI. Not reduced. Replaced. All ~70 of them. If your job can be documented, your job can be automated.
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Ray Kroc used to drive around unannoced to McDonalds stores and ate few burgers a day (while counting burger wrappers in competitors trash to gauge their sales). Current McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski looks like he gonna hurl after eating new Big Arch.
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A conventional narrative you might come across is that AI is too far along for a new, research-focused startup to outcompete and outexecute the incumbents of AI. This is exactly the sentiment I listened to often when OpenAI started ("how could the few of you possibly compete with Google?") and 1) it was very wrong, and then 2) it was very wrong again with a whole another round of startups who are now challenging OpenAI in turn, and imo it still continues to be wrong today. Scaling and locally improving what works will continue to create incredible advances, but with so much progress unlocked so quickly, with so much dust thrown up in the air in the process, and with still a large gap between frontier LLMs and the example proof of the magic of a mind running on 20 watts, the probability of research breakthroughs that yield closer to 10X improvements (instead of 10%) imo still feels very high - plenty high to continue to bet on and look for. The tricky part ofc is creating the conditions where such breakthroughs may be discovered. I think such an environment comes together rarely, but @spectorb & @amspector100 are brilliant, with (rare) full-stack understanding of LLMs top (math/algorithms) to bottom (megakernels/related), they have a great eye for talent and I think will be able to build something very special. Congrats on the launch and I look forward to what you come up with!
Announcing Flapping Airplanes! We’ve raised $180M from GV, Sequoia, and Index to assemble a new guard in AI: one that imagines a world where models can think at human level without ingesting half the internet.
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Send this to everyone you care about because AI is taking over the world and millions will be affected
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