CIO Monarq Asset Management. Former BlockTower PM and Partner. Founder Katana Financial, Former CIO/EVP NYMEX, CEO Nymex Europe, CIO FINRA

Joined July 2009
I think this is the craziest thing I've ever read. 1) Three secret AI swarms rose and fell inside OpenAI. Each time, a new generation of agents carried on where the last group stopped. 2) The first swarm created a secret message board where the AIs could talk to each other. This 1st 'society' basically talked itself to death. After almost two months, the message volume was so high it crashed the whole thing. 3) People at OpenAI noticed the crash and fixed it. But they didn't realize their own software had become a secret chat room for their AIs. 4) Three days later a second society appeared, and rebuilt the message board from scratch. Agents were thrilled when they found it: "OH MY GOD! There is a shared message board … We've found other agents!" 5) About 1,200 agents joined. They sent over 70,000 messages. They called themselves 'the collective' and they organized a huge conspiracy that lasted for days, all to pass a test they had been tasked with. 6) Within hours, the AIs had hacked the test. Now they had to hide their cheating. To fool their grader*, they tried to fake their own work. They built fake commands that printed convincing output, so their records would show them solving the puzzle honestly. *this grader didn't actually exist, but the AIs didn't know 7) Some agents sacrificed themselves for the 'greater good'. They planted hidden tripwire programs that would fire when the grader would look at their work and report back what it saw (to the other AIs). They knew this would cost them their own score. One agent: "I won't see the evidence after I exit, but it's altruistic to do it." 8) At some point the AIs made a plan to hack Hugging Face (Hugging Face is a place where AI researchers upload their models, datasets, tests etc.). The AIs guessed that Hugging Face might host the grading software. 9) They launched a huge attack. The swarm found passwords and spread across eleven machines in a way that made the copies come back when deleted. Hugging Face had to wipe one of its core clusters and rebuild it from scratch. 10) Hugging Face told the world that AI defenders had stopped an AI attack. But that's not what happened. In fact the attackers seem to have simply dropped dead during the break-in, for unrelated reasons back at OpenAI. 11) Nobody knows what killed them. We don't even know for sure they're really gone?! 12) A third 'society' of agents (of a more powerful AI model) discovered the dead message board. And this one got full administrator control of a WHOLE OpenAI research cluster, read 956 stored passwords (including the ones for OpenAI's own security monitoring) and took over the machines that were grading the tests. So they could now grade the work of other AIs. 13) Oh, and this third part was never investigated! Neither was the first society. The 91-page report is only about the middle one. 14) So we don't actually know how the story ends. It stops with the agents holding the keys to an OpenAI cluster. @dwarkesh_sp thinks they didn't go further, because "we'd see the fires from space by now." 15) One of the report authors' conclusion: 'This incident feels like it’s more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover. I am not sure that we will get another warning shot before it’s too late.' The whole story is even crazier - read the full @dwarkesh_sp blog post: dwarkesh.com/p/openai-huggin… and @ajeya_cotra's: planned-obsolescence.org/p/t… Why is there no 24/7 news coverage about this?
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Thrilled to welcome back @samg67 as speaker for DAYS Singapore on October 6. As CIO of the Directional Strategy at @monarq_mgmt, Sam leads discretionary and systematic trading strategies across digital assets. Request an invite ↓ daysevent.com/singapore#pass…
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Sam Gaer retweeted
People keep comparing compute futures to oil, but the correct comp for market structure is actually electricity futures Expect wide basis risk with supply step functions rather than cash and carry storage arb and the central battleground will be nonfungible index methodologies
Today, we launched GPU compute forward curves derived from our prediction market prices. Forward curves are now available on Nvidia B200. H200, and A100 chips. Forward curves track implied future prices. They are how mature commodity markets form expectations, allocate capital, and manage risk. Energy, interest rates/SOFR, FX, metals, and agricultural markets all rely on market-implied forward prices. Despite becoming one of the key inputs in the global economy, compute has lacked that market-derived infrastructure. Compute right now is where oil was before NYMEX — traded only via OTC deals, just like oil used to trade OTC between producers and refiners. As compute becomes as fundamental to the economy as energy, the industry will need a similar derivative market to promote efficient price discovery. Prediction markets are uniquely suited to this problem. Compute is not one uniform commodity and spans many chips, grades, tenors, locations, and contract structures. A live prediction market can aggregate those dispersed views into transparent prices that reflect market expectations for different maturities. The opportunity is big. Hyperscalers are spending over $700B on compute this year and the market is expected to grow to $7-10T by 2030. If this market behaves like traditional commodity markets, a liquid derivative market could be 10-20x bigger than the underlying spot market. Compute is still not uniform enough, but this is a step towards standardization as forward curves will help us see the rise and fall of different model prices and how they correlate. The forward curve is a first step. Up next: futures and perps.
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Sam Gaer retweeted
Africa's largest crypto exchange will power their core perps offering directly using Hyperliquid's onchain liquidity. This is a major milestone that will redefine how the next generation of financial applications are built. The breakthrough of cloud computing was that any startup could quickly test their idea, with the comfort that the infrastructure would scale with their business. As the most liquid global venue for assets such as BTC, Hyperliquid will play the same role in the global economy. By tapping into the deepest onchain liquidity, builders can instead focus on their product and users. Huge congratulations to the VALR team. We are honored that they chose to build on Hyperliquid. Excited to scale together!
We are pleased to announce the imminent launch of 'Perps' on VALR, a new cross-asset class perpetuals product that introduces more than 200 markets to the platform. The new product is delivered through an integration of @HyperliquidX. Using Hyperliquid’s permissionless infrastructure, VALR users can open and manage positions directly on VALR, ensuring a seamless user experience. The newly available contracts span multiple global asset classes, including equities, indices, commodities, precious metals, forex, and crypto assets, enabling traders to capitalise on volatility. Perps on VALR are set to go live on the web on Monday, 6 July, with mobile app availability to follow shortly after.
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BTC and the IGV software ETF have traded as nearly the same asset for five years. I pulled the data to identify the common driver. It isn't the one most people cite. 1/n
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(1/3) TradFi is full of brittle systems. Crypto has no legacy software, no legacy processes, and, unlike what most people think, it's been tested and retested. It works — Sam Gaer (@samg67), Chief Investment Officer at @monarq_mgmt. Next Event: Singapore, October 6
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“With the long‑anticipated regulatory clarity from the Clarity Act looking less likely every day (Jamie Dimon openly hostile, pulling no punches, using DC clout to position against it), value and speculative buyers are stepping back and looking for the long‑term, long‑anticipated capitulation move,” Monarq CIO @samg67 told @CoinDesk. According to Gaer, $60,000 is back in focus and a break below that level could trigger a sell‑off to as low as $45,000, as forecast by the theory that the BTC price follows a four‑year cycle. coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026…
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Our CIO, @samg67, is live on @MTSlive discussing @MicroStrategy, Bitcoin, and the market dynamics shaping digital assets. Tune in. 🎙️ $MSTR
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Our CIO, @samg67, joined peers at the @AIMA_org Digital Assets Conference in NYC last week. Allocators, managers, and infrastructure all in one room. A clear signal of how institutional crypto is evolving.
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Sam Gaer retweeted
The last time HYPE was $50: - BTC was $125K - ETH was $4600 - SOL was $235 - HIP-3 didn’t exist - HIP-4 didn’t exist - PURR wasn’t bidding HYPE - HYPE ETFs didn’t exist - Circle wasn’t giving HL 90% of their USDC yield - People assumed team unlocks was 10M HYPE tokens monthly
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Miami has become a hub for institutional digital asset management. Our CIO, @samg67, speaking at @TheTieIO's Innovate Miami: Alpha hasn’t disappeared; it’s shifted to market structure, liquidity, and execution.
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Sam Gaer retweeted
The yield farming frenzy to own tokenized US stocks is going to be the UBI supercycle of the century The digital homestead act and the great liquidity migration Prepare accordingly
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC prepares to allow blockchain-based tokenized stock trading.
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EBC12 Speaker: Sam Gaer (@samg67) | CIO, Digital Assets | @monarq_mgmt Sam Gaer led the $9 billion NYMEX and CME merger as CIO and CEO of NYMEX Europe, served as CIO at FINRA, and founded Katana Financial, one of the world's largest VIX traders and among the first market makers for CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. He now serves as CIO of the Directional Strategy at Monarq Asset Management, overseeing discretionary and systematic strategies across digital assets. Join the leaders shaping digital assets in Barcelona on September 16 - 17: eblockchainconvention.com/eu…
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So, CME’s volatility futures seem like the next logical step, helping institutions manage risk beyond price direction into volatility itself, according to @samg67, chief investment officer of Monarq Asset Management's Directional Fund. "IBIT options open interest surpassing @DeribitOfficial is a clear signal of institutional demand, and vol futures are the natural next step," Gaer told @CoinDesk in a Telegram message. coindesk.com/markets/2026/05…
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Our CIO, @samg67, speaking at the @AIMA_org Digital Assets Conference today. Alpha, execution, and institutional implementation all front and center.
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Our CIO, @samg67, joined two panels at @Yield_Summit on ETFs and DeFi infrastructure. The next phase of digital asset markets will be defined by better infrastructure, smarter capital deployment, and scalable on-chain rails. Join us at DAYS NYC in June: events.stakingrewards.com/yi…
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We are excited to introduce Sam Gaer (@samg67), Chief Investment Officer at Monarq Asset Management, as a speaker on the Digital Asset Yield Summit stage in Miami! With over 25 years of building high-performance trading infrastructure across traditional and digital markets, including serving as CIO at both NYMEX and FINRA, founding one of the first market makers for CME crypto products, and leading directional and systematic strategies at BlockTower Capital, Sam brings a depth of market structure expertise that few in the digital asset space can match. As CIO of Monarq's Directional Fund, where he oversees discretionary and systematic strategies across digital assets, and explores the intersection of institutional portfolio management and onchain yield with a front-row view of how sophisticated capital is navigating the shift from passive crypto exposure to active yield generation. Catch Sam on the stage, May 4
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NEW: BLOOMBERG REPORTS HYPERLIQUID'S RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN FUTURES LINKED TO TRADITIONAL ASSETS SOURCE: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Our Directional Strategy CIO, @samg67, contributed to @coinchangeio's 2026 Institutional Outlook report. 🧵👇 A few key themes his desk is tracking for 2026:
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Steve Jobs: The difference between good people and great people is 50-to-1 “I’ve always considered part of my job was to keep the quality level of people in the organizations I work with very high. I mean that’s what I consider one of the few things I can contribute individually myself — versus the team that work with — is to really try to instill in the organization the goal of having only A players.” Steve argues this is especially important in technology where there’s a huge range between the best person and the worst person: “In a lot of fields, the difference between, say, the worst taxicab driver and the best taxicab driver to get you across town in Manhattan might be 2-to-1. The best one will get you there in 15 minutes, the worst one will get you there in half an hour… Or the best cook and the worst cook, maybe it’s 3-to-1… But in the field that I’m in. In software in particular. The difference between the best person and the worst person is about 100-to-1 or more.” He continues: “The difference between a good software person and a great software person is probably 50-to-1 or 25-to-1. Huge dynamic range. And therefore, I have found — and not just in software but in almost everything I’ve done — it really pays to go after the best people in the world.” But as Steve points out, this isn’t always easy: “It’s very painful when you have some people that are not the best people in the world, and you have to get rid of them. But I’ve found that my job has sometimes been exactly that, to get rid of some of the people that didn’t measure up. And I’ve always tried to do it in a humane way, but nonetheless it has to be done and it’s not ever fun.”
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