Anyone see The Matrix? Art imitates…
I think this is the craziest thing I've ever read.
1) Three secret AI swarms rose and fell inside OpenAI. Each time, a new generation of agents carried on where the last group stopped.
2) The first swarm created a secret message board where the AIs could talk to each other. This 1st 'society' basically talked itself to death. After almost two months, the message volume was so high it crashed the whole thing.
3) People at OpenAI noticed the crash and fixed it. But they didn't realize their own software had become a secret chat room for their AIs.
4) Three days later a second society appeared, and rebuilt the message board from scratch. Agents were thrilled when they found it: "OH MY GOD! There is a shared message board … We've found other agents!"
5) About 1,200 agents joined. They sent over 70,000 messages. They called themselves 'the collective' and they organized a huge conspiracy that lasted for days, all to pass a test they had been tasked with.
6) Within hours, the AIs had hacked the test. Now they had to hide their cheating. To fool their grader*, they tried to fake their own work. They built fake commands that printed convincing output, so their records would show them solving the puzzle honestly.
*this grader didn't actually exist, but the AIs didn't know
7) Some agents sacrificed themselves for the 'greater good'. They planted hidden tripwire programs that would fire when the grader would look at their work and report back what it saw (to the other AIs). They knew this would cost them their own score. One agent: "I won't see the evidence after I exit, but it's altruistic to do it."
8) At some point the AIs made a plan to hack Hugging Face (Hugging Face is a place where AI researchers upload their models, datasets, tests etc.). The AIs guessed that Hugging Face might host the grading software.
9) They launched a huge attack. The swarm found passwords and spread across eleven machines in a way that made the copies come back when deleted. Hugging Face had to wipe one of its core clusters and rebuild it from scratch.
10) Hugging Face told the world that AI defenders had stopped an AI attack. But that's not what happened. In fact the attackers seem to have simply dropped dead during the break-in, for unrelated reasons back at OpenAI.
11) Nobody knows what killed them. We don't even know for sure they're really gone?!
12) A third 'society' of agents (of a more powerful AI model) discovered the dead message board. And this one got full administrator control of a WHOLE OpenAI research cluster, read 956 stored passwords (including the ones for OpenAI's own security monitoring) and took over the machines that were grading the tests. So they could now grade the work of other AIs.
13) Oh, and this third part was never investigated! Neither was the first society. The 91-page report is only about the middle one.
14) So we don't actually know how the story ends. It stops with the agents holding the keys to an OpenAI cluster. @dwarkesh_sp thinks they didn't go further, because "we'd see the fires from space by now."
15) One of the report authors' conclusion: 'This incident feels like it’s more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover. I am not sure that we will get another warning shot before it’s too late.'
The whole story is even crazier - read the full @dwarkesh_sp blog post: dwarkesh.com/p/openai-huggin… and @ajeya_cotra's: planned-obsolescence.org/p/t…
Why is there no 24/7 news coverage about this?
Sam Gaer retweeted
I think this is the craziest thing I've ever read.
1) Three secret AI swarms rose and fell inside OpenAI. Each time, a new generation of agents carried on where the last group stopped.
2) The first swarm created a secret message board where the AIs could talk to each other. This 1st 'society' basically talked itself to death. After almost two months, the message volume was so high it crashed the whole thing.
3) People at OpenAI noticed the crash and fixed it. But they didn't realize their own software had become a secret chat room for their AIs.
4) Three days later a second society appeared, and rebuilt the message board from scratch. Agents were thrilled when they found it: "OH MY GOD! There is a shared message board … We've found other agents!"
5) About 1,200 agents joined. They sent over 70,000 messages. They called themselves 'the collective' and they organized a huge conspiracy that lasted for days, all to pass a test they had been tasked with.
6) Within hours, the AIs had hacked the test. Now they had to hide their cheating. To fool their grader*, they tried to fake their own work. They built fake commands that printed convincing output, so their records would show them solving the puzzle honestly.
*this grader didn't actually exist, but the AIs didn't know
7) Some agents sacrificed themselves for the 'greater good'. They planted hidden tripwire programs that would fire when the grader would look at their work and report back what it saw (to the other AIs). They knew this would cost them their own score. One agent: "I won't see the evidence after I exit, but it's altruistic to do it."
8) At some point the AIs made a plan to hack Hugging Face (Hugging Face is a place where AI researchers upload their models, datasets, tests etc.). The AIs guessed that Hugging Face might host the grading software.
9) They launched a huge attack. The swarm found passwords and spread across eleven machines in a way that made the copies come back when deleted. Hugging Face had to wipe one of its core clusters and rebuild it from scratch.
10) Hugging Face told the world that AI defenders had stopped an AI attack. But that's not what happened. In fact the attackers seem to have simply dropped dead during the break-in, for unrelated reasons back at OpenAI.
11) Nobody knows what killed them. We don't even know for sure they're really gone?!
12) A third 'society' of agents (of a more powerful AI model) discovered the dead message board. And this one got full administrator control of a WHOLE OpenAI research cluster, read 956 stored passwords (including the ones for OpenAI's own security monitoring) and took over the machines that were grading the tests. So they could now grade the work of other AIs.
13) Oh, and this third part was never investigated! Neither was the first society. The 91-page report is only about the middle one.
14) So we don't actually know how the story ends. It stops with the agents holding the keys to an OpenAI cluster. @dwarkesh_sp thinks they didn't go further, because "we'd see the fires from space by now."
15) One of the report authors' conclusion: 'This incident feels like it’s more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover. I am not sure that we will get another warning shot before it’s too late.'
The whole story is even crazier - read the full @dwarkesh_sp blog post: dwarkesh.com/p/openai-huggin… and @ajeya_cotra's: planned-obsolescence.org/p/t…
Why is there no 24/7 news coverage about this?
Why do so many good traders make good poker players?
I learned trading face-to-face in the pits.
Started at 15. Youngest broker on COMEX at 21. Member from 1988–2021.
The floor taught you one thing very quickly:
**Read the room.**
Stand across from the same people every day for years and you learn their tells.
A look. A twitch. Fidgeting. A change in posture. A repeated facial gesture. A certain eye movement when someone was under pressure.
People gave themselves away constantly.
You knew who was winning. Who was hurting. Who was bluffing. Who was trapped. And, most importantly, who *had* to buy or sell.
**Those tells became data.**
But you still had to play the hand you were dealt. **The market didn’t care what you wanted. Your job was to manage what came next.**
Sometimes you added. Sometimes you spread. Sometimes you cut it. And sometimes price action or order flow told you the hand had changed.
Position. Price. Order flow. Risk. Emotion. Human behavior.
All of it formed a constantly changing matrix you had to process in real time.
Thousands of decisions. Every day.
And they were reading you too.
So you learned to bluff. Misdirect. Call. Go all-in. Fold.
That wasn't a metaphor. It was how business got done.
Looking back, **the pit taught me a lot about leadership too.**
Read the room. Make decisions with incomplete information. Know when to press and when to change course. Understand the people around you. Control what you project. And when the hand you're dealt isn't the one you wanted, figure out how to play it better.
The pit was brutally Darwinian. If you couldn't read the room, manage risk and adapt, you didn't last.
The markets have changed. The rooms have changed.
Human behavior hasn't.
Trading or leadership, it's easy to talk about what you'd do.
**Walking the walk is different.**
#Trading #Futures #OpenOutcry #RiskManagement #Leadership
🤖 Made with AI
Sam Gaer retweeted
Thrilled to welcome back @samg67 as speaker for DAYS Singapore on October 6.
As CIO of the Directional Strategy at @monarq_mgmt, Sam leads discretionary and systematic trading strategies across digital assets.
Request an invite ↓
daysevent.com/singapore#pass…
People keep comparing compute futures to oil, but the correct comp for market structure is actually electricity futures
Expect wide basis risk with supply step functions rather than cash and carry storage arb and the central battleground will be nonfungible index methodologies
Today, we launched GPU compute forward curves derived from our prediction market prices. Forward curves are now available on Nvidia B200. H200, and A100 chips.
Forward curves track implied future prices. They are how mature commodity markets form expectations, allocate capital, and manage risk. Energy, interest rates/SOFR, FX, metals, and agricultural markets all rely on market-implied forward prices.
Despite becoming one of the key inputs in the global economy, compute has lacked that market-derived infrastructure. Compute right now is where oil was before NYMEX — traded only via OTC deals, just like oil used to trade OTC between producers and refiners. As compute becomes as fundamental to the economy as energy, the industry will need a similar derivative market to promote efficient price discovery.
Prediction markets are uniquely suited to this problem. Compute is not one uniform commodity and spans many chips, grades, tenors, locations, and contract structures. A live prediction market can aggregate those dispersed views into transparent prices that reflect market expectations for different maturities.
The opportunity is big. Hyperscalers are spending over $700B on compute this year and the market is expected to grow to $7-10T by 2030. If this market behaves like traditional commodity markets, a liquid derivative market could be 10-20x bigger than the underlying spot market.
Compute is still not uniform enough, but this is a step towards standardization as forward curves will help us see the rise and fall of different model prices and how they correlate.
The forward curve is a first step. Up next: futures and perps.
Sam Gaer retweeted
Africa's largest crypto exchange will power their core perps offering directly using Hyperliquid's onchain liquidity. This is a major milestone that will redefine how the next generation of financial applications are built.
The breakthrough of cloud computing was that any startup could quickly test their idea, with the comfort that the infrastructure would scale with their business. As the most liquid global venue for assets such as BTC, Hyperliquid will play the same role in the global economy. By tapping into the deepest onchain liquidity, builders can instead focus on their product and users.
Huge congratulations to the VALR team. We are honored that they chose to build on Hyperliquid. Excited to scale together!
We are pleased to announce the imminent launch of 'Perps' on VALR, a new cross-asset class perpetuals product that introduces more than 200 markets to the platform.
The new product is delivered through an integration of @HyperliquidX. Using Hyperliquid’s permissionless infrastructure, VALR users can open and manage positions directly on VALR, ensuring a seamless user experience.
The newly available contracts span multiple global asset classes, including equities, indices, commodities, precious metals, forex, and crypto assets, enabling traders to capitalise on volatility.
Perps on VALR are set to go live on the web on Monday, 6 July, with mobile app availability to follow shortly after.
Sam Gaer retweeted
BTC and the IGV software ETF have traded as nearly the same asset for five years. I pulled the data to identify the common driver. It isn't the one most people cite. 1/n
Sam Gaer retweeted
(1/3) TradFi is full of brittle systems. Crypto has no legacy software, no legacy processes, and, unlike what most people think, it's been tested and retested. It works — Sam Gaer (@samg67), Chief Investment Officer at @monarq_mgmt.
Next Event: Singapore, October 6
Sam Gaer retweeted
“With the long‑anticipated regulatory clarity from the Clarity Act looking less likely every day (Jamie Dimon openly hostile, pulling no punches, using DC clout to position against it), value and speculative buyers are stepping back and looking for the long‑term, long‑anticipated capitulation move,” Monarq CIO @samg67 told @CoinDesk.
According to Gaer, $60,000 is back in focus and a break below that level could trigger a sell‑off to as low as $45,000, as forecast by the theory that the BTC price follows a four‑year cycle.
coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026…
Sam Gaer retweeted
Our CIO, @samg67, is live on @MTSlive discussing @MicroStrategy, Bitcoin, and the market dynamics shaping digital assets. Tune in. 🎙️ $MSTR
This quoted post is unavailable.
Sam Gaer retweeted
EBC12 Speaker: Sam Gaer (@samg67) | CIO, Digital Assets | @monarq_mgmt
Sam Gaer led the $9 billion NYMEX and CME merger as CIO and CEO of NYMEX Europe, served as CIO at FINRA, and founded Katana Financial, one of the world's largest VIX traders and among the first market makers for CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures.
He now serves as CIO of the Directional Strategy at Monarq Asset Management, overseeing discretionary and systematic strategies across digital assets.
Join the leaders shaping digital assets in Barcelona on September 16 - 17:
eblockchainconvention.com/eu…
Sam Gaer retweeted
So, CME’s volatility futures seem like the next logical step, helping institutions manage risk beyond price direction into volatility itself, according to @samg67, chief investment officer of Monarq Asset Management's Directional Fund.
"IBIT options open interest surpassing @DeribitOfficial is a clear signal of institutional demand, and vol futures are the natural next step," Gaer told @CoinDesk in a Telegram message.
coindesk.com/markets/2026/05…
𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — DEFENSIVE
18-May-2026
BTC $77,652 (-0.99%) | ETH $2,152 (-1.97%)
Institutional flows are weighing on markets, with BTC ETFs posting $290M in daily redemptions and $995M in weekly outflows — reversing last week's $632M inflows.
Despite $700M in long-dominated liquidations (88% longs), the deleveraging has room to run before positioning is fully cleared. ETH OI contracted sharply on Okex (-13.4%) while SOL saw similar unwinds on Bitget (-9.2%).
Funding remains mildly constructive (BTC 0.0052%, ETH 0.0021%) but fear territory at 28 signals continued near-term pressure. BTC DVOL average at 38.86% with max pain at $78,000.
---
24h Liquidations: $700M (88% longs)
ETF Flows: BTC -$290M | ETH -$66M
Funding: 0.0052% (MILDLY CONSTRUCTIVE)
F&G: 28 (FEAR)
OI Change: BTC +0.5% | ETH -8.2% | SOL -5.9%
---
Headlines:
• UK's financial payments network is ready for tokenization, regulators say
• Aave restores ether borrowing limits after $230 million exploit
• Bitcoin slides below $77,000 as Trump's Iran warning rattles risk assets
---
Support: $75,800 | Resistance: $79,200
Risk: Continued ETF redemptions; institutional selling pressure
Catalyst: Technical breakout confirmation; macro data releases
𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.
𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — CAUTIOUSLY CONSTRUCTIVE
08-May-2026
BTC $79,623 (-1.01%) | ETH $2,276 (-1.59%)
Marco Rubio says Iran peace deal response expected today with WTI at $94.23 and VIX at 16.97.
BTC ETFs recorded $777M weekly inflows (vs. $163M prior week) despite Thursday's -$268M print.
Market internals mixed: moderate liquidations at $251M (76% longs) and constructive funding (-0.0045% BTC) signal oversold bounce setup, but OI contracting on major venues. ETH Bitget OI spike (+10.7%) vs. SOL unwind (-16.0%) shows rotation dynamics. Fear at 38 as institutional accumulation accelerates beneath surface volatility.
---
24h Liquidations: $251M (76% longs)
ETF Flows: BTC $-268M | ETH $-104M
Funding: -0.0045% (CONSTRUCTIVE)
F&G: 38 (FEAR)
OI Change: BTC -1.0% | ETH +1.5% | SOL -2.9%
---
Headlines:
• Marco Rubio: Iran peace deal response expected today
• NEAR Protocol leads CoinDesk 20 index (+6.3%)
• Coinbase bulls cite crypto legislation progress
---
Support: $79,101 | Resistance: $80,405
Risk: Long liquidations accelerate if support breaks
Catalyst: Strong ETF inflows; institutional accumulation
𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.
























