The latest Houthi attack on Riyadh's airport is about more than hitting a civilian target. It's an attempt to raise the cost of Saudi support for Yemen's government, undermine confidence, and force political concessions. But this is a dangerous gamble. What the Houthis see as leverage could backfire, triggering stronger Saudi retaliation and greater international pressure. Negotiations remain possible, but another deal that merely freezes the conflict without addressing the question of Yemeni state authority will only postpone the next war. And it would be a grave mistake for the international community to assume that only Yemenis and Saudis will pay the price. We've already seen what the Houthis can do to international shipping and global trade. Their threat extends well beyond Yemen's borders, and ignoring that reality won't make it disappear. I explain to Luke and Lillia @abcnews here.

There is a real danger in allowing the regional dimensions of Yemen’s war to overshadow what is actually at stake inside the country. Much of the international debate now revolves around Iranian influence, Saudi security, and the Houthis’ ability to threaten global shipping through Bab al-Mandab. All legitimate concerns. But they also risk turning Yemen into little more than a battlefield for competing regional interests, with Yemenis reduced to spectators in a war being fought over their own country. The Houthis have been remarkably effective at exploiting this dynamic. By expanding the conflict beyond Yemen’s borders, they have made themselves a problem the world feels compelled to negotiate with, rather than a militia whose seizure of state institutions and coercive rule remain at the heart of Yemen’s tragedy. Every new regional crisis offers them another opportunity to seek concessions and political recognition without fundamentally changing how they govern. And this is precisely where we need to distinguish between managing the Houthi threat and actually resolving Yemen’s conflict. The two are not necessarily the same. For Yemenis, this is not primarily about shipping lanes, Saudi-Iranian rivalry, or the balance of power in the Middle East. It is first and foremost a Yemeni struggle to reclaim their state, end the Houthis’ oppressive rule, and restore the right of citizens to determine their own future. That struggle also demands more from the internationally recognized government and its allies: greater unity, credible leadership, accountability, and a political vision that goes beyond battlefield victories. Opposing the Houthis is not, by itself, a substitute for demonstrating what a better Yemen would look like. The real danger is that the international community becomes so preoccupied with containing the Houthis' regional threats that it ends up accommodating their domestic grip on power. Yemen does not need another arrangement that makes the Houthis less dangerous to the outside world while leaving Yemenis at their mercy. A bit of an extended but important discussion with Mahrukh Hameed @Mahrukh_Hameed on @PakistanTVcom

Yemen is facing an increasingly severe humanitarian aid shortage, and the coming weeks could prove catastrophic for millions already struggling with hunger, displacement, and the devastating consequences of more than a decade of war. Aid supplies are dwindling, humanitarian operations are being scaled back, and renewed military escalation threatens to push even more families into desperate conditions. Making matters worse, the Houthis have systematically obstructed humanitarian operations, driven aid organizations out of areas under their control, and continues to detain more than 70 UN personnel and humanitarian workers. These are the very people risking their lives to deliver food, medicine, and lifesaving assistance to vulnerable Yemenis. There is something profoundly cruel about a movement claiming to defend Yemenis while intimidating those trying to keep them alive. With humanitarian needs rising and resources rapidly shrinking, Yemen is heading toward an even deeper catastrophe. The international community must act urgently to restore humanitarian access, secure the release of detained aid workers, and prevent millions of civilians from paying yet another devastating price for this war. An excerpt from my participation on the @AJInsideStory panel discussing the worsening humanitarian conditions in Yemen. Full episode here: youtu.be/jF3DDHKTNl0?is=Cjqd…

The slower pace of Yemeni government advances should not necessarily be mistaken for military weakness. The Houthis are deeply entrenched in populated areas, have heavily mined approaches, and have turned civilian neighborhoods into potential battlefields. Advancing government forces must navigate these dangers while minimizing civilian casualties—a constraint the Houthis have repeatedly shown little regard for. This is an asymmetric war, not only in military capabilities but also in how each side calculates the human cost. Meanwhile, expect the Houthis to intensify missile and drone attacks against civilian infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, seeking to raise the political and economic cost of Riyadh's support for the Yemeni government. The real challenge for government forces is not simply taking territory, but doing so without reproducing the humanitarian devastation they are supposed to end. Military progress must be measured not only by ground gained, but by civilian lives protected. I explain to Louisa here @trtworld