بادمان retweeted
$ORCL says Project Jupiter construction is “moving quickly” and has now issued an RFP for 2 GW of renewable energy but getting 300 MW+ campus powered remains the key constraint.
The buildout is accelerating fast and power availability is still what ultimately determines how quickly that capacity can come online which is where $BE fuel cells comes in.
بادمان retweeted
"Scale-up optical engine market forecasted to reach $90 Billions in 2030, up from $279 million in 2026 or 322x" 😱🔥🔥
The most valuable part of the Photonics BoM. Later don't say I didn't warn you frens 😉
$LITE $COHR $AAOI 🚀
xitter.cf/pequityresearch/status…
" $CIEN: [...] a 6.4T PLUGGABLE OPTICAL ENGINE for scale-up and scale-out networks." 👀🔥🔥
Those guys want to retain the most valuable part of the BoM !
بادمان retweeted
SemiAnalysis: Datacenters
SemiAnalysis sees 51.2GW of datacenter capacity being added in 2027.
"Year-to-date, slightly under USD 1T of binding / non-cancellable datacenter leases have been signed – that’s key to supporting our aggressive 2027-28 forecast."
SemiAnalysis claims Brad Gerstner's @altcap claim of only 25GW being built in 2027 is incorrect, based on satellite images showing >24GW of datacenters in advanced stage of construction, all to be delivered in 2027.
بادمان retweeted
Memory buyers are locking in supply for the next DECADE.
Google is reportedly in talks to secure memory supply all the way to 2035.
HP and Dell have extended their deals with $MU through 2031.
Micron now has 26 long term agreements covering about 35% of its revenue through 2030.
Customers don't sign 9 year deals when they expect a glut but rather sign them when they are worried about running short.
KeyBanc now sees DRAM contract prices rising 15% to 20% and NAND rising more than 20%.
And $MU still trades at about 5x next year's earnings.
Michael Dell just told the Wall Street Journal that the memory crunch is going to get WORSE.
On CNBC this week he said supply and demand get worse next year, and when asked about memory he called it "maybe a four year problem because there's just not enough supply."
His reasoning is that a new chip fab takes about four years to build, so the capacity being planned today may not produce anything until 2029 or 2030.
That is a STRUCTURAL shortage, and it is exactly what Samsung, SK Hynix and $MU want to hear after the brutal selloff in memory stocks this week.
The more interesting part is how $DELL plans to survive if the AI boom ever busts.
Dell builds just in time, so it isn't sitting on a mountain of inventory or debt like a lot of AI infrastructure players, and the WSJ says that gives it a CUSHION if demand collapses.
One of the biggest buyers of memory in the world is telling you the shortage isn't close to over.
بادمان retweeted
Managing Executive Officer and General Manager of the Advanced Materials Business Division at JX Advanced Metals on InP substrate supply/demand:
"Currently, supply of InP substrates is tight compared to the strong demand, creating a supply-demand gap. With the data center market expanding, demand for optical transceivers used in servers has grown significantly."
"These factors were significant until 2025, but in 2026, with the full-scale shift to inference AI, the demand for even faster communication has increased, leading to a further expansion of demand for InP substrates, and we expect it to grow at a rate exceeding that of the server market."
As of 10/9/26
$AXTI
بادمان retweeted
$LITE CEO interview on demand, counterparty + financing risk:
- "CFO of $GOOGL came on and reported capex going up Y/Y, we expect hyperscalers for report an increase in capex in earnings.
Based on what we see, we see their spend going up."
- "The purchase agreements we have, to a large degree, are noncancellable."
- The difference between Lumentum and companies like $AVGO, "we are not as dependent on AI datacenter buildout going forward"
There's a conversion between electrical products to optical products" creating structural demand.
Q: When do you see able to see yourself having more inventory? (catching up to surge in demand)
- When we look at demand, there is "no end in sight"
TLDR:
Financing risk and demand aren't equally distributed across AI supply chains. But markets are just selling everything off together.
As for photonics in specific, I said this before, but increasing optical content per XPU + CPO/NPO adoption keeps going up so we'll likely see sector spend go up, even if aggregate capex goes down.
There's the usual "no end to demand in sight" commentary, but $LITE does have capacity commitments into 2029 now... and are negotiating for 2030. (with new information that most of which are likely hyperscalers + non-cancellable)
So doesn't quite sound like it's all over for the AI trade, especially photonics.
بادمان retweeted
Jeff Bezos says AI could let Americans support a family working just three days a week.
He also predicts more single-income households, and even a labor shortage instead of mass job losses.
Amazon has cut about 30,000 jobs since late 2025.
بادمان retweeted
Poland should be the model for the rest of Europe.
Polska nie powtórzy błędów innych europejskich państw, nie będzie też za nie płacić. Twardo bronimy granicy przed nielegalną migracją, mamy własną politykę azylową (nie przyjmujemy wniosków), deportujemy tych, którzy łamią polskie prawo. W kwestii bezpieczeństwa będziemy bezwzględni. To usłyszeli ode mnie liderzy Europy w Brukseli.
بادمان retweeted
Keybanc: we hear that AMD's ODM partners are really struggling with ramping production volume of Helios racks as they are undergoing similar growing pains to what NVDA did when it initially ramped GB200. The two things that we have heard as causing the most issues are with the OAM (Open Accelerator Module) GPU board and cartridge connector issues (this is very similar to the issues that NVDA faced on GB). While we previously had expected 4K Helios racks this year, we now expect less than 1K racks. For next year, supply chain partners indicate expectations to ship 20K racks.
$AMD
بادمان retweeted
HBM prices are projected to more than double to ~$35 per GB by 2030 even as shipments nearly quadruple which is unusual for memory where prices typically fall as production scales.
That combination could push HBM market toward ~$640B by 2030 giving $MU and $SKHY an opportunity to benefit from both higher volumes and stronger pricing as HBM4 becomes more complex to manufacture.
بادمان retweeted
HSBC sees custom AI chips accounting for 57% of HBM demand by 2028 as $GOOGL, $AMZN and $META move more AI workloads onto their own silicon.
But this isn't necessarily bearish for $NVDA or $AMD because HBM market is projected to grow from ~$64B in 2026 to ~$280B in 2028 meaning GPU demand for HBM could still nearly triple even as custom chips take share.
That creates a much bigger opportunity for $AVGO and $MRVL in custom chip design while $MU and $SKHY supply memory and $TSM manufactures the chips behind both.
بادمان retweeted
BREAKING: The top 0.1% of Americans now hold more than six times as much wealth as the entire bottom half of the country.
The top 0.1% control about $28 trillion, roughly 15% of all U.S. wealth.
The bottom 50% hold about 2.5%.
بادمان retweeted
Real average hourly earnings are officially down 0.7% on the month, per Bloomberg.
That's the sixth straight month of decline.
