And child neglect, but yes

Wait even hybrid?

Yea I also would have expected more/recognizable disemployment, but I don’t see it

You’re looking at a somewhat volatile time series, picking a sharp spike, and then saying the <5pp decrease after that is a legitimate trend. If you were to smooth things, it looks much better now.

Per your other point about LFP (though I’m not sure it’s the metric we should look at), is your position that junior hiring as been cooked since ‘08, and thus can’t be explained by AI?

If you see a “downward trend since 2023” I’m afraid you’re grasping at straws

They do call it paternalism

Gdp growth will be 2% regardless

28-2 in 12 games

Andrew Gelman has to be the highest variance blogger of all time. That’s all.

How much do you own?

This would be better than most

I just realized that this had actually been the first thing I’d ever read by Hall.

What makes writing strictly unsolvable? Yes, the writing is currently bad.

I do

I agree broadly. Like I’m not depressed or anything, but I think the original points are probably true

Healthcare lol

The difference is that being surpassed by an infinitely replicable machine means what you were good at is now free/valueless

Hmm I wouldn’t say it’s an ego thing because it’s not primarily about signaling. It’s about the value of my primary passion being eroded

Difference is between what you’re doing now and econ RA-ing or between econ RA-ing and industry/finance generally?