The Iran war turned into a tanker war last week. Iran hits shipping to raise the cost for the global economy while the US hits Iranian tankers to enforce its blockade. Trump's answer is a Ukraine deal that unlocks Russian raw materials. Kushner and Witkoff came back from Moscow and Kyiv with "very meaningful." My fair value for a deal this year is under 5%. Which leaves a hasty deal with Iran (or export controls). Markets have it at 4%. I think that's too low. Weekly Global Outlook, free 👇

Trump is trying to end the wrong war. The diesel shortage runs through Hormuz and Russian refineries. Yet, Kushner and Witkoff are in Kyiv today chasing a ceasefire I put at 4% chance of succeeding. Meanwhile I have an Iran deal before the midterms at 53%, and the Fed holding at 81%. Forecast Update is live. Full reasoning below 👇

Trump sent Kushner and Witkoff to meet Putin in Moscow before traveling to Kyiv—they've just landed in Moscow. In effect, will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15 jumped to 41% on Polymarket, up 22 points in 24h. In the face of coming diesel shortages, Trump is looking to end the Ukraine war, rather than to make a deal with Iran. Sure, a meeting can happen, but the long-term ceasefire market barely moved, with traders giving an 18% chance of one by the end of the year. This is a dead end.

The US bombed Larak last night. Iran fired missiles at Jordan. 33 days of quiet are over and Kharg might be next. The Ukraine war is heating up too. Something has to give this fall. New Global Outlook is out. The strikes, Warsh, Bolsonaro, and the Iceland vote traders got slightly wrong. 👇

Second week of mysterious NATO exercises around Kaliningrad and Suwałki gap, one of the potential NATO-Russia hotspots. The market doesn’t really care for now. But the war has been escalating for quite some time and we are approaching a turning point.

The new Global Outlook is live! Some of the markets I go over this week: 1. The Bank of Korea book flipped from 46c hold to 70c hike in a single session. 2. SC runoff pricing collapsed 92c→69c on one debate line. 3. Traders shrugged at the "greatest economic offensive" in history. Get ready for the week and take a look below 👇

Yet another proof that the Mecca agreement is about Israel.

I still hold my contrarian thesis that the Iran war is on a deal path. There are a couple of fresh signals to support it, including Barak Ravid's scoop on the secret US backchannel to the IRGC, running through Barzani. I've also started watching Ukraine more closely. I think we might be approaching a tipping point there based on the recent escalations. Full analysis in my Forecast Update below 👇

You might think that the recent NATO operations around Kaliningrad didn't impact the chance of a NATO-Russia military clash. After all, the market is still at 28%, barely above where it was back in January. That couldn't be further from the truth. Back in January, the market priced in a ca. 25% probability of a NATO-Russia military clash IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. Translating it into a monthly forecast yields roughly a 2% chance. Now we have roughly 4 months left in 2026. The probability at 28% means that traders see a roughly 7% chance of a clash in any given remaining month. Essentially, the implied monthly probability spiked from about 2% to 7% since January. It's probably the clearest available signal of how much escalation risk in the Ukraine war has grown this year.

And now there's also a video version now! Look below if you're on the move 👇

I'm revamping the Global Outlook. From now on, prediction markets are at the center. Each week I pick the top markets by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science—and interpret what moved, rather than judging the news. This week: NATO shootdown chances at 94%, the SPR drain at 63%, and a long-decided Ethiopian election out-trading Brazil. Take a look 👇

Good evening from Asia. Daily forecast update: Iran Double blockade continues with occasional Houthis strikes on Saudi Arabia. Essentially a pre-MoU status quo with increasingly high pressure on energy supply. Bessent can manipulate paper oil all day, but the physical world doesn't care. ATH on diesel crack is not something you want to have before the midterms. My FV remains stable—relevant markets are close to all time lows, but it's high time for a new peace narrative as Brent approaches $90 per barrel. Clarity Act Nothing new. Ukraine I'm waiting for the Duma election, otherwise the situation remains stable.