New Global Outlook is out. The midterms have gone quiet. The market has sat at 62–63% for a Democratic sweep for almost two weeks. My model is at 66%, so I think it’s still a bit cheap. Texas is where I disagree with the market. It has Talarico at 63%. I have him at 59%. Paxton is a bad candidate, but Texas is still a red state. The Fed market calmed down after Warsh’s comments, and Brazil’s runoff is a lot closer than the 89% Flávio price suggested a few weeks ago. Outside the US, Iran talks are stuck, and the Saudi–Houthi war is where the action is now. Israel votes next week with no bloc near a majority, and France just had its most violent weekend in years. Full Global Outlook in the link below 👇

Full Global Outlook: prophetnotes.com/p/global-ou…

I'm more than halfway through the midterms forecast article, but I won't make it before Tuesday. There are just so many interesting races that it takes time to properly present and comment on them. But I will have a little teaser of the model in my Global Outlook today. I'll show my model vs market on Balance of Power and Texas Senate race.

It's ready! This one has been quite a challenge compared to the Brazil model, but luckily I will be able to reuse most of it for the future US elections. I'm starting the article on the forecast today. It will be a long one, where I go over the Senate, the House and governor races so don't expect it tomorrow. I aim to finish it by the end of the week and then update it on a daily basis up until the election day.

No Global Outlook this week. I'm doing the last fixes to the midterms model, which take the bulk of my time now. I should be ready by tomorrow with the model spotlight published by Friday so stay tuned!

I watched the Michigan debate and I'm not sure anything there justifies a drop in odds for El-Sayed. Sure, he could have done a lot better, but it's not a performance that costs votes. Just compare it to 2024 Biden and remember that he would have performed on par with Kamala come November.

Now I need to train my For You to stop showing me Iran war slop and start showing me midterms slop

My midterms model is almost ready. There are still plenty of interesting plays to make. I was quite shocked to see a couple of races completely mispriced. And then there's election night... in 2024 being quick then made all the difference. Anyway, time to get out of the rabbit hole and post more to feel the vibes.

Turns out I wasn't bullish enough on Bolsonaro! Directionally, my model was significantly closer to reality than the market, but still below current prices. The runoff is all but decided at this point, with traders giving Bolsonaro an 83% chance to be the next president of Brazil. Transfers heavily favor Bolsonaro, and with a 2-point lead in the first round, Lula has little chances to make it back. I end the first round with 151% return and an appetite for more elections. Next up: US midterms.

With 10% of the vote in, the forecast is playing out exactly as expected in Brazil:

Brazil forecast is coming today, I’ll publish it in the next few hours. If I were to sum it up, it would go like this: The market is directionally correct, but too sure in the wrong places. There are plenty of +EV trades to make ahead of the count. Stay tuned!