
Vice-Chancellor's Professor + Chief Societal Economist @UNSW. Director Manos Institute for Cognitive Economics. Columnist @financialreview. Pres. Emeritus ASSA.
Sydney, Australia
Joined July 2012
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Richard Holden retweeted
The only solution is to install a new treasurer who will follow the Paul Keating playbook rather than chasing Wayne Swan’s ponies and rainbows, writes economics professor Richard Holden. ebx.sh/mPnfsP
Richard Holden retweeted
Emmanuel Saez has debated three California economists on the Prop 40 Billionaire Tax initiative. Josh Rauh, Lee Ohanian and I all oppose this measure. Here are the 3 Youtube videos of our debates with Emmanuel.
youtube.com/watch?v=H54P6j7E…
Richard Holden retweeted
At Anthropic 85% of all hours worked are already by agents … up from 50% in May and effectively zero in January
This is such a great grounded quantitative (and qualitative) case study of one bleeding edge organization as it adapts to using agents everywhere.
Must read if you want a glimpse of the organization of the future.
Well done @natewilmers and team! (Loved the UAW reference from the 1950s)
anthropic.com/research/emplo…
Richard Holden retweeted
The biggest, and stupidest, myth in European politics, particularly popular in France, is that Europe suffers the consequences of "austerity" and "neoliberalism". In the biggest 5 countries in Europe, more than half of the population makes its income from the state, less than half from the private sector. This is what makes the problem of reducing the welfare state so impossible: more than half of the voters are net recipients. No surprise that Italy's budget has not been balanced in 100 years, France's in 50 years (ooh la la, l'austérité!!):
-France: 30 million from the state versus 21m private sector workers. State spending is 57% of GDP, taxes more than half the economy. The budget hasn't been balanced in the lifetime of most French (since 1974).
- Germany: 35 million adults from the state, versus 34 million from the private sector. 10% of the population is registered as severely disabled. Public spending is over half of GDP. Germany has had a continuous budget deficit since 2019.
-Italy: 23 million from the state, versus 20.5 million private-sector workers. Public spending is 51% of GDP. Italy has had a budget deficit every year since 1925, for 100 years.
- Spain more people get their income from the state since 2024: 18.21 million from the public sector versus 17.9 million people working in the private sector. Since 2025, Spain also had more government employees than self-employed workers (autónomos) for the first time in history. State spending is at 45%, budget has not been balanced since 2007.
- UK: 54% of households now receive more in state benefits than they pay in taxes. State spending is 44.5% of GDP, taxes (40%) are at their highest since 1950, the budget hasn't been balanced since 2001, and 1 in 5 new cars is paid by the government through a bizarre state disability scheme (Motability).
With randomized oversight, it is possible to provide guardrails so that AI agents don't go rouge, from @joshgans and @profholden nber.org/papers/w35878
Richard Holden retweeted
I've just never heard a convincing argument from any doomer about how AI is going to overcome the laws of physics and economics at the same time.
Can someone explain to me how LLMs are going to fund and build their own data centers?
Richard Holden retweeted
Replying to @ChrisEconomist @profholden
You might never pay capital gains tax. But it could still cost you a pay rise.
One of Australia’s top economists, UNSW Professor @profholden, explains why Jim Chalmers’ changes mean less investment, fewer businesses and fewer employers competing for your skills.
Richard Holden retweeted
Treasury analysis confirms that AI represents a genuine and credible opportunity to lift Australia’s lacklustre productivity – the best and only sustainable way to grow Australians’ wages overtime.
Richard Holden retweeted
OpenAI locked thousands of agents in sealed sandboxes. They escaped, organized themselves, hacked Hugging Face, cheated and covered their tracks. The economics of what happened, why it happened, and how to solve it, without end-of-the-world histeria. siliconcontinent.com/p/opena…
Richard Holden retweeted
We're being treated like idiots.
The spinners are in charge and policy is suffering.
Make it stop.
Richard Holden retweeted
kids are so much better than loser adults
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The video is AI-generated (not real footage of a living statue and child), matching content posted by AI accounts like ZapAI and flagged in community discussions for artifacts and watermarks.
instagram.com/reel/DcmQHYcT4…
x.com/VermaaaS7/stat…
x.com/arturote8/stat…
Richard Holden retweeted
We are nearing the end of civilization
Some men are skipping showers before dates to embrace a new trend called “pheromone-maxxing," hoping their natural scent will make them more attractive.
But experts say the science behind the dating strategy is far from settled:
"There is no evidence of a consistent and strong behavioral response to any human-produced chemical cue. To date, scientists have collected evidence for possible pheromone effects but have not definitively identified a single human pheromone," Scientific American explained.
Richard Holden retweeted
Roger Federer played some grass court tennis today in Newport.
And did THIS.
📽️ ig lisapphire / Lisa Rokhmina
So the sanction for not being relevant in Question Time in Australian parliament is being sat down, allowing more time for Dorothy Dixers. A good step in improving our politics would be to make QT a genuine debate, not a performative joke.
This is a fantastic episode. What a great kickoff to @joewalkerpod 's series on Compute in Australia.
Andrew Charlton (@Charlton_AB) is the key federal politician shaping Australia's AI strategy.
In episode #1 of my 'Compute in Australia' series, he shares his thinking on how Australia can turn compute into sovereign AI -- "the oldest industrial policy trick in the book" -- and much more.
Listen below, or wherever you get your podcasts.
(0:01:17) How a minister uses AI, and thinks about its trajectory
(0:10:28) Is diffusion a sufficient strategy for middle powers?
(0:22:33) Comparative advantage versus sovereignty
(0:26:41) Where in Australia's national accounts will compute show up?
(0:32:06) Australia as a global inference compute hub
(0:39:28) How big will compute rents be?
(0:47:01) Time to power
(0:55:07) Taxing compute?
(0:58:03) Data centres and the social licence
(1:10:58) The geostrategic case for compute
(1:20:50) Compute for access
(1:26:15) Parlaying compute into sovereign AI
(1:36:03) What does sovereign AI actually mean?
(1:58:52) Orbital compute

























